Rolled Aces in 75-150, big pot, blind river bet

[B-Man]

Pretty good 75-150 stud game at Foxwoods.

I have (A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and the bring-in is on my right with the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

The last time I had rolled up aces I raised immediately, but this time I thought I would try and go for a back-door re-raise.

I limp.

Player on my left with a Q completes to 75.

FOUR players call, including the bring in.

I raise to $150, as I know everyone is going to stay for another $75. Everyone but the bring-in calls.

Fourth Street:

Me: (A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Player 1: Q-8
Player 2: J-5
Player 3: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]-6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Player 3 bets the big bet of $150, I smooth-call hoping for a call behind, but the other 2 fold.

Fifth Street:

Me: (A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Player 3: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]-6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8

We both caught dead cards, but short of filling up, that 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is almost a perfect card for me--I know he has trips, but it’s going to look to him as if I don’t believe he has trips when I raise, so I think I am going to get a lot of bets in.

He bets, I raise, he re-raises, I make it 600, he finally calls, realizing I must have three sixes beat.

On sixth street we both catch bricks, he checks, I bet, he calls.

On the river he checks blind and I bet blind--knowing he was not full on sixth (because he would have raised, knowing I only had trips), and now he probably wont raise even if he fills on the river, but the pot is too big for him to fold.

Comments?

[MRBAA]

What's to say? You had rolled aces, got lucky enough to have someone else catch trips, your sidecards were dead, you're hoping he doesn't fill and you do. Well played, but pretty obvious, no?

[B-Man]

I thought so, but I know plenty of players who would have played it differently on third street, and the river.

[MRBAA]

I have played no higher than 10-20 and am a big advocate of knocking people out early there. With the overante that's common in many big stud games (don't know about this one), that's even better strategy. But rolled aces just aren't a good hand -- they are the best hand. You want action, the more the merrier. I think you played it perfect on 3rd. I'm not a fan of betting blind, and I suppose you could have simply looked and checked if you didn't fill, hoping he'd be afraid to bet if he did. But I don't think raising you with a full is a +EV play, since you'll reraise if you did fill. And he will call with just trips. So I see this play as somewhat positive overall, too.

[Andy B]

$15 ante in this game.

This is a clear value bet on the river. He will call with trips. It costs you two bets when he fills and you don't. He may be afraid to raise, but he also has a clear raise for value if he fills. He's laying 2:1, and it's a lot more than 2:1 against B-Man filling. And betting out is the only way you're going to get in three bets on the river if you both happen to fill.

[MRBAA]

Yep. So, basically, sounds like he got a big hand expensively cracked through no fault of his own.

[MRBAA]

[ QUOTE ]


This is a clear value bet on the river. He will call with trips. It costs you two bets when he fills and you don't. He may be afraid to raise, but he also has a clear raise for value if he fills. He's laying 2:1, and it's a lot more than 2:1 against B-Man filling. And betting out is the only way you're going to get in three bets on the river if you both happen to fill.

[/ QUOTE ]

Andy, I didn't respond to this originally but I don't agree that opponent has a clear value raise here. It depends on the cards that have been out and his read on the opponent.

In this hand, the bettors side cards were somewhat dead (all 6s, 1J gone).

But in a hand where all side cards are live, it's about 4-1 against opponent filling on the river if you've only seen your own cards and his up cards -- and they are all live. What's more, you can't know for sure if he is already full before the river. And if you've seen eight additional cards (6 opponents, two staying for fourth), the odds go down to 3.5 or so.

So best case is that you'll win one extra bet four times and lose two extra bets twice (assuming neither of you ever folds).

Now, if his chances of being full before the final card are just 1 in 4, you're looking at only winning your extra bet about 3 times and losing two bets about 2 times -- now it's negative.

I think dead cards for opponent plus a feel for his play are critical in whether or not to raise if you fill with the sixes here.

[Andy B]

I like the limp/re-raise on third. You will make this play sometimes with split Aces or a big three-flush, right? Most of the time that I see people making this play, it's with rolled-up trips, and if that's the only time you do it, you're giving away too much information. If the game is loose enough, I might just raise coming in, because it looks natural.

I agree with the smooth call on fourth. Too bad no one took the bait. On fifth, I think that the Six was the perfect card. Making an open pair just might kill your action. As you point out, it looks like you don't believe he has trips, so you got a few bets in. It would suck if he was already full, though.

I essentially never bet (or check) blind, because I don't want to give away any information by failing to do so. If he fills and you fill along with him, do you still want him to just call? You do have a clear value bet whatever you catch, and it's obvious you weren't full going in. If you look at your last card, maybe, just maybe, you'll sow enough doubt in his mind that he'll call unimproved where he might have folded. I don't fold trips in his spot, but really, what else can you have besides rolled-up Aces?

I wonder what the bring-in called $50 with, and then folded for another $75. He was getting more than 10:1, and his call closed the action.

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the limp/re-raise on third. You will make this play sometimes with split Aces or a big three-flush, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, I don't limp/re-raise with split aces very often, because I find you usually end up with a big multiway pot, and it is harder to knock people out later. I might do it if I am in very early position and there are a lot of big cards out, otherwise I would usually just raise.

I've done this with a big 3-flush, but not often--if you ever play with me and see me limp-reraise, you can conclude that my most-likely hand is rolled up, so for that reason I usually just limp or raise (but not both) when I am rolled.

[ QUOTE ]
I wonder what the bring-in called $50 with, and then folded for another $75. He was getting more than 10:1, and his call closed the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was wondering the same thing, especially because he is a very strong player (I should have asked him after the hand, he probably would have told me). I suspect he must have had something like split deuces with a king kicker, or a small pocket pair.

[Andy B]

I like to limp and re-raise with big three-flushes, but not so much with big pairs. In stud/8, though, I limp/re-raise with all kinds of hands--strong three-card lows, especially with two-way possibilities, wired Aces with a small door card, trips, even less if I'm the bring-in and I figure I'm against a steal. I think it's a more useful play in that game, as you're not necessarily giving your hand away. In this case, though, it doesn't matter if you're giving your hand away. They're calling, and at some point you're rooting for them to fold anyway.

Maybe the bring-in knew you were rolled-up. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]