I gotta call this river, right?

[bicyclekick]

getting 15-1 there is no way I can lay this down, right? It's not even close?

I should be completing this small blind, too, right?

How bout my 3 bet on the turn?

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="666666">7 folds</font>, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks,

Flop: (3 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
Hero bets, BB calls, Button calls.

Turn: (3 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
Hero bets, BB calls, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, BB caps, Button folds, Hero calls.

River: (13 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB bets, hero ?

[bobgreen]

I know the orthodoxy is to call preflop with any two when the small blind is 2/3, but when I factor in my present skill level, I fold this emesis.

Yah, 3-bet the turn to maximize against a drawing BB.

Some off-the-wall river guesses:

BB=FH (30%)
Straight (40%)
3 fives, better kicker (5%)
3 fives, worse kicker (5%)
pair+oesd that missed (15%)
two pair (5%)
you win 25%, must call river.

Lets go further:
FH 45%
Straight 45%
3 fives, better kicker (2%)
3 fives, worse kicker (2%)
pair+oesd that missed (4%)
two pair (2%)
you win 8%, must call river

[Josh W]

Well, of course, without knowing anything about the BB, it's impossible to say.

So, I'll just assume, since apparently that's what the poster wants us to do, that the BB is a normal player.

BB calls the flop, calls the turn THEN COMES BACK AND CAPS IT against two opponents who have shown a ton of strength on the turn. He has AT LEAST an 8-high straight.

But, more important (cuz this isn't based on as far fetched assumptions), I don't think you should assign equal likelihood of "trip 5s worse kicker" and "trip 5s better kicker". The BB will likely raise the flop with 54 or 58 (pair and OESD), so a 5 is more likely to have a better kicker than a worse kicker.

Live, I think that this is an easy fold. Online, just cuz players are more likely to do the "instantaneo-tilt-click-raise" maneuver, I may call the river.

Of course, since you left out ALL PERTINENT info (by not describing your opponent), this post is 100% pertinent-less.

Josh

[bicyclekick]

Well if I had a read ont he guy I would have posted it. From the few hands previous he didn't do anything worth getting written down.

You had all the info I had during the hand.

I didn't have any on the button, either.

I do agree that capping it after all that aggression says quite a bit.

I still called though cause of no reads and it's a buldging pot.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I still called though cause of no reads and it's a buldging pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good enough reason for me. Going on pot odds to make the river call is almost pointless against an unknown in this situation. I mean, what are you relating the odds to? You dont know his range to give a ratio.

b

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
Live, I think that this is an easy fold. Online, just cuz players are more likely to do the "instantaneo-tilt-click-raise" maneuver, I may call the river.


[/ QUOTE ]
This is a very interesting point. I agree with you that our hero is beat the vast majority of the time. However, the pot is giving him tremendous odds on the river. How sure are you that a live BB wouldn't play it exactly the same way with a hand that's worse than the hero's? You have to be really sure. Can you be that sure when the BB is unknown?

[bobgreen]

Josh,
The turn cap is at least a straight 80% or 90% or 95% but there are many players who could have something less, and 5% or 10% or maybe?? 20% of the time you'll see a worse hand.

My numbers are absurdly specific; I might as well have said 70.000%. I should have said:
FH, straight, 3-fives better kicker--80%-90%,
pair+oesd, 3-fives worse kicker, inexplicable other--10%-20%.

While it's not significant in this hand, your comment that 54 and 58 are less likely, since the opponent would likely raise the flop, woke me up to a gap in my handreading logic. It does come up when I have a weak A and have to figure my chance of having the best kicker. If this pays off, and we cross paths, I'll treat you to anything you want on the comp menu.

Thanks,

Bob

[Senor Choppy]

I don't understand why you're so anxious to get away from this hand. He could easily have a 5 with a worse kicker, 87, 86, A7 of hearts, AA, KK, QQ, or could be going way too far on a semi-bluff.

I'm calling with 5-1 odds here. At 15-1 heads-up, I'm beating him into the pot with my chips.

(I don't like completing with 95o here, I'd make sure I had at least 2 limpers with a hand this bad for cover, or want something slightly better, like 96o or 95s).

[bicyclekick]

I was never planning on folding, but just the feeling i got during the hand that I wasn't winning. I cried a ton when I did in fact, call.

I didn't think it was that close, either. I just wanted to hear what others had to say.

[DeeJ]

Yeah, I'm calling this down, although I'm not liking it.

Since you don't have a read I would be wanting to know this about BB (what does he limp-cap with on the turn) for the price of a single river bet which might just win?

I reckon he had a made straight on the flop or more probably a full house. Most of the answers round here are often suited connectors blowing out other hands [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]