Live losing streaks

[1800GAMBLER]

This is my attempt at covering up my bitching about my own bad luck, bad beats and losing streak by trying to make it into a question.

Anyhow, i've hit my first major losing streak in just under 1 year of poker, i'm roughly 400BBs down at the 15/30 a.k.a $12000. The bankroll is still fine for now, but this makes me really curious of how players can handle a losing streak for such a long period of time live.

Before every chips in with how it's a lot more likely it's my own play rather than a losing streak, my past week has been spent reread, studying, posting hands in the chat room, discussing hands/this streak with respected posters reviewing a 1000 of my own hands at each stage of my losing streak and also changed my party and empire screen name mid streak, yes, paranoia. I'm also sure that right now i'm playing the best poker i ever have been.

BTW, for the still none believers here's Risk of Ruin for 400bb at 1.5bb/100h (estimated MIN win rate) SB of 18bb/100h:

400 = -(18^2/2*1.5)*lnX = 2.4%!

I play 6 - 8 15/30 tables, getting roughly 520 hands per hour, 17 times more per hour than a live player. I've played roughly 2 hours a day over the last 6 days since this started making this a 6000 streak or in terms of live play, 208 hours or 100 days or 3 months!

Now if i assume my most likely win rate in this game that's going to take another 52 online hours to gain back, or 871 hours of live play. 9 months. Meaning once i have gained all the BBs back from the losing streak it's equal to a year dry patch live.

Thinking back to all the books which don't recommend becoming a poker professional when you had to play live i can very much understand why now. I think i'd end it with borrowing some rope. Just kidding.

Anyhow, any long term posters who only play live have any experiences to share? Any of you have nightmares of the day variance comes to get you? Anyone want to give me a hug?

[Baulucky]

IMO there is no entity alive that can play COMPETENTLY 6-8 tables of poker against moderate opponents. But WTF do I know?.

Did you consider in your ROR calculations that, when you play 8 tables at the same time your SD almost triples?. And I'm sure your EV is a lot lower than playing just 2 tables...

Maybe calling 1800GAMBLER is not a bad idea.

[1800GAMBLER]

Firstly, there are a few players who are regulary playing 6 - 8 tables.

Secondly, I did consider that my SB triples! Guess what! It doesn't! As you can see i took win rate and sd per 100 hands. Next.

Thirdly, I'm english so i can't call that number!

[Baulucky]

OK. Keep at it then. Post again when you are down another 400 BBs.

[ QUOTE ]
Secondly, I did consider that my SB triples! Guess what! It doesn't! As you can see i took win rate and sd per 100 hands. Next.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not only your math is wrong, but you are a clear case of why the English do not have hemmoroids.

[sthief09]

I think I read in a previous post that you're young, like 18 or 19 or something. I'm 20 and struggle with immaturity in my game, especially when it comes to tilting. If I'm having a bad session I might not bet a river that I normally would or I'd limp with a hand I'd normally raise or fold. It's not full-blown tilt, and for a while I was convinced I was tilt-proof, but those subtle deviations from your normal play can cause you to lose a little here and a little there. Is it possible that you're tilting a little?

if you're RoR was lower then you could credit it to something else, but eventually someone has to be a victim of the 2.6%. unfortunately it had to be you.

sorry that didn't really answer your question, but I thought I'd add that in.

[stupidsucker]

I would recomend staying at 15-30 and try playing just 2 tables at once. I am not a long time poster, and not a poker guru. I am however prone to the same mistakes. When I play a SnG one at a time I do very well.It's easy. When I play 4 at a time my stats drop about 10% ITM with much bigger streaks.

I have a lot of trouble playing 4 limit rings games at a time. Its so much for my little brain to take in at once, and I cant get a grasp on my opponents play.

If you still have 2-300 BBs for 15-30 and you are sure you have the skills to remain there, then stay, but try it with just 1-2 tables at a time. If you dont have the proper bankroll then I highly recomend dropping down to as low as 5-10 if you have to.

If I am wrong then I am sure someone here will set you straight. Too many tables has been a mistake of my own.

[1800GAMBLER]

Hey all.

The reason i don't put this down to multi-tabling is due these reasons.

1. I logged 25k hands as a strong winning player over 10/20 6 max 4 tables. Each table gets dealt just short of 100 hands/hour there, so that's 400 hands. Before that i multitabled 5 $800 - $500 NL tables for 2 months.

2. I don't think i give up all that much when going from 4 tables to 8 tables. I agree from 1 to 4 is a lot, however i don't believe the same for 4 - 8.

3. I have more details notes and more detailed reads than i could ever have by just watching on at least 4 players out of 10 at every table thanks to PokerTracker.

Hey stheif.

I'm 19. I don't struggle with being numb with the money. I see all decisions as expected value and imagine the outcome of each decision over 10000 hands etc. High stakes NL did that to me. I don't think i'm mildly tilting but it's hard to tell, i think if i was tilting i'd be checking behind on the turn a lot more when you fear that checkraise but yet know betting is still right.

The variance for that win rate is huge, equal to 6 max limit. I think it's down to that.

[gonores]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO there is no entity alive that can play COMPETENTLY 6-8 tables of poker against moderate opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

True. However, it is also true that GAMBLER can play profitably on 6-8 tables at the current Party 15/30 tables. Your two conclusions are not mutually exclusive. The Party 15/30 can easily be beaten for 1BB/100 playing straight ABC with good table selection.

Before you start getting brash and cocky with your responses, maybe you should do a little research on this guy. What leaks, exactly, would you say GAMBLER has? Due to a recent proposed staking deal, I've done a lot of research on this guy, and I will say that I think 1.5BB/100 is a conservative estimate for a win rate, given the games right now. There is a very clear, quick, consistent, simple thought process that makes him capable of playing so many tables.

[Baulucky]

Point taken. I was responding to a brash, arrogant and faulty response, but I didn't have any excuse to behave the same way.

I have no knowledge of his poker skill or leaks, but I'm 100% sure that if any genius attacks 8 limit tables with a 300 BB bankroll, he is destined to blow up. While his EV rate per table may (very big if) hold, his SD will be 2.83 times higher, requiring a much bigger bankroll.

No wonder the British lost the Empire. (I couln't resist).

[1800GAMBLER]

You are wrong. Very very wrong. IT'S SD PER 100 HANDS. You don't need to have a higher bankroll because you are multitabling. The only reason to maybe have a higher bankroll is so you always have enough money on each table.