A debatable play?

[DocHollyday]

Hi guys,

My brother and pokerbrother just had a dispute about a hand he played, which he thinks is allright, but of which I think it has negative EV.

He is in the big blind with 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

As usual in our local 20/40$ game there are lots of players who play the any two can win style, so it were 6 limpers and the button raised. Flatcalled by everyone, but the SB. So 8 players to the flop:

J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checked to the raiser who bet. My bro called and so did everyone else.

Turn: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Checked to the initial raiser who bets again, my bro check-raises, three call, intial raiser mucks. Last one blanks, he bets, everyone folds.

Ok, his thinking was, that if he spikes a four he will get a good pot and that the odds more or less justify the flop call with that many players.

I think that it was a bad play (although I like that he won [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]), because the board was that coordinated and despite getting a four, there are just too many redraws possible to make this appropriate.

Your opinions??

[MaxPower]

The redraws don't bother me as much as the possibility that someone will check-raise. He is getting 17:1. Maybe that is enough to call if he were last to act, but in this situation I don't think so.

[MarkD]

This is my thinking too. He got the absolute best sitaution though - everyone called behind behind him so the pot is 24sb's going into the turn.

I think sobe's math is off somewhere but don't have the heart to go through it.

[SoBeDude]

think sobe's math is off somewhere but don't have the heart to go through it.

It could be off. I'd love to hear where it's off though.

-Scott

[DcifrThs]

i just posted an example of where it might be off...didn't really take issue or try to with the rest of it.
-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
This is my thinking too. He got the absolute best sitaution though - everyone called behind behind him so the pot is 24sb's going into the turn.

I think sobe's math is off somewhere but don't have the heart to go through it.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea sobe's math is a bit off...that 67% holding up figure may be suspect...

any 8, 9, t, k, or ace make a straight and with 8 callers its probable someon'es got it...any spade but he has one so 10 left (i usually go by the cards that are there and don't automatically assume a flush draw but a spade would usually have him beat but i still count all 10 spades here, since if i only counted 8, why not 6, or only 4 spades right?)

so thats 7*4 + 10= 38 out of 47 cards you DO NOT want to see.. 5.222:1 against hitting a good card or 19.1% of the deck being good. discounted for the possibility of lets say 1/3 of the times nobody has the river card completing the draw and we take 1/3 of 38=12.6 but i'll take 12. so 26 out of 47 cards are are bad so 47:21 against good one hitting= 2.24:1 or ~45% of the time the set will be good. instead of that 67% figure...granted my 1/3 figure there is quite arbitrary but i think its a good estimate.

all subjective there but i think 67% holding up with that many callers ain't too likely...BUT then again the callers have to call 2 big ones cold so maybe 67% IS INDEED correct.

all depends on what you think you know.
-Barron

PS- i just reread and realized its 46 not 47 but whatever, i'm not redoing it

[SoBeDude]

But it seems that with your possible numbers, the call only gets WORSE, thus my assessment that the call is -EV still stands, right?

-Scott

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
But it seems that with your possible numbers, the call only gets WORSE, thus my assessment that the call is -EV still stands, right?

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

well yea but i wasn't taking issue with your conclusion...i came to the same conclusion...just picking on your math ;-)

-Barron

[SoBeDude]

You're numbers are off as well,

There can't be 10 spades left. there are only 8. 2 on the board, 2 in someone's hand with a flush draw, one in your hand. so 5 of 13 are accounted for, leaving 8.

Also remember that one of the 8, 9, T, or K are also spades, leaving only 3 of each that make a straight and not a flush. And thats assuming the worst case scenario of your opponent's holdings.

So in that worse case, thats 20 cards I don't want to see on the river, out of 46. So perhaps in a worse case scenario, the set holds up only 43% of the time.

Makes the peel all the more horrible.

-Scott

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
You're numbers are off as well,

There can't be 10 spades left. there are only 8. 2 on the board, 2 in someone's hand with a flush draw, one in your hand. so 5 of 13 are accounted for, leaving 8.

Also remember that one of the 8, 9, T, or K are also spades, leaving only 3 of each that make a straight and not a flush. And thats assuming the worst case scenario of your opponent's holdings.

So in that worse case, thats 20 cards I don't want to see on the river, out of 46. So perhaps in a worse case scenario, the set holds up only 43% of the time.

Makes the peel all the more horrible.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

scott,

you're right there...forgot about the flushed straight cards so we're just arguing in agreement.

if he was the button and limped and sb raised, bet out and all called then yea i'd peel. but not in the reverse.
-Barron