Dream situation for KK

[CrisBrown]

Hi All,

With the difficult KK hands posted today, I thought I'd offer another kind of KK hand.

Situation: $2/4 NL ring on PokerStars. I have $1093 and am the chip leader at the table. I've been playing solidly by and large, though recently I've been caught on a couple of bluffs in smallish pots (i.e.: nothing that hurt me very much). The relevant opponents are MP with $426 and CO with $365. It was CO who caught those two bluffs. I have K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG.

I limp, with the intention of reraising big if I'm raised. I'll do this about half the time with KK, depending on how the table is playing. The table has been rather aggressive lately, so I figure I'm sure to get a raise. MP calls. CO calls. BB calls. Oh well, so much for the raise. (Pot=$10)

Flop: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Oh nice. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] BB checks. I check. MP bets $8. CO raises to $24. BB folds. I raise to $105, wanting to charge any draws severely. MP folds. CO calls. (Pot=$220)

Turn: [7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Ahh ... glad the flush didn't fall. I look at my opponent's stack, and I want him pot-committed. I bet about half of his stack ($125). He calls. (Pot=$470)

River: [7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I set him all-in ($131) and he calls. I take the $750 pot. I had put him on 77, but the hand history shows he had Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I suspect he called at the river because he'd already put 2/3rds of his stack in this pot, and because he'd caught me on those two small bluffs earlier. That or he just read me for an idiot.

Cris

[neotope]

I can't see why he would put tons of money into a pot where he did not even have the nut flush draw. I guess he felt that only an Ace could beat him and he thought the Ace was not to be had. However, I don't think I could drop that much money into a pot with a flush draw that was not Ace high.

[MHoydilla]

put him all in on turn...............

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't see why he would put tons of money into a pot where he did not even have the nut flush draw. I guess he felt that only an Ace could beat him and he thought the Ace was not to be had. However, I don't think I could drop that much money into a pot with a flush draw that was not Ace high.

[/ QUOTE ]

You shouldn't be putting so much money in with even the Ace high flush. There also isn't much difference in having the nut flush draw here because do you really suspect the other player betting (on the turn) to have AQs or A2s?

[crockpot]

i don't see how you can raise big on the flop to charge the draws, then bet small on the turn allowing him reasonable odds to chase. does the fact that he flat called your flop raise change your read or something?

while we're at it, who are you pot-committing with your turn bet - yourself or your opponent? think about this for a minute. i would find it very hard to let this hand go with so little money left if a spade hit on the river, unless i knew the player never bluffed.

[CrisBrown]

Hi crockpot,

[ QUOTE ]
i don't see how you can raise big on the flop to charge the draws, then bet small on the turn allowing him reasonable odds to chase. does the fact that he flat called your flop raise change your read or something?

[/ QUOTE ]

He was getting just over 3:1 to call at the turn, and he probably thought he had 14 outs (2 Queens, 3 Sixes, and 9 Spades). If indeed he'd had 14 outs, he'd have been right to call me. In fact, he had only 8 outs (Queens and Sixes don't help him, and 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] makes my boat). So he's a 9:2 dog, getting only 3:1 on his call, with too little money left in his stack to make good on implied odds if he does hit.

That's why I chose to bet $120. It was intended to be tempting, and when he called it pot-committed him, but he wasn't getting good enough odds -- even with implied odds -- to chase an 8-outer.

[ QUOTE ]
while we're at it, who are you pot-committing with your turn bet - yourself or your opponent? think about this for a minute. i would find it very hard to let this hand go with so little money left if a spade hit on the river, unless i knew the player never bluffed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I was pot-committed at the turn, but I wanted him pot-committed also. If I had thought he would call himself all-in at the turn, I'd have set him all-in then. I didn't think he'd call it at the turn, and I wanted his whole stack.

Color me greedy. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Cris

[crockpot]

i suppose i'm just confused by what you want to pot-commit him with. you already raised more than the size of the pot on the flop, and he has called you. he won't call on the river with a flush draw that missed unless he also hits a high pair - and would he really fold a flush draw on the turn for a bigger bet than $125, having called a flop overbet?

if he has a made hand, and no spade hits, you'll probably get his whole stack either way. but what if a spade does river? unless he makes an ill-advised bet after you check, or you decide to bet anyway, you will have cost yourself a good amount of profit by not betting more on the turn.

add this up, and i think a bigger bet is in order. if not an all-in, at least $150. for him, calling the $120 may have been a mistake, but you want to induce big mistakes. giving him 3.8:1 implied odds on a 4.5:1 shot is not a big mistake.

[CrisBrown]

Hi crockpot,

Let's work it out in terms of EV:

If I set him all-in at the turn, assume he'll fold 78% of the time. In those cases, I win $500. Of the 22 times that he calls, I win $750 18 times, and lose 750 four times (when he hits his flush and I pay him off). My EV to push at the turn is:

((77 x 500) + (18 x 750) - (4 x 750)) / 100 = $490/hand

Now, let's say that he'll always call the turn bet of $120 (he did), and call off the remaining $130 if he misses (he did). In that case, of 11 times I make this play, I will win $750 9 times (when he misses), and lose $750 twice (when he hits). My EV for that play is:

((9 x 750) - (2 x 750))/11 = $477.27/hand

That's a margin of 2.6%, well within the margin of error for my assumptions of his call percentages. That is, the difference between them is statistically insignificant, and both are good plays.

Cris

[crockpot]

i don't dispute your math here, but do you really think he'll call off the remaining $130 at the river with a busted flush draw that didn't pair? and what experience has led you to believe the opponent will fold 78% of the time when he called an overbet check-reraise on the flop? i would expect the percentage to be easily lower than this.

[Ulysses]

This guy will:

a) Call the raise to $100+ on the flop.

b) Always call the $125 turn bet and call the $131 left when he misses on the river.

c) Fold 78% of the time to a $250 turn bet.

Your logic doesn't make sense and your EV calculations really don't say anything without putting this guy on a range of hands first.

For example, what's the % chance he has TsJs? You're giving that hand great odds on the turn and won't make anything on the river most times when he misses.