Was hansen's call wrong?

[DanTheCardMan]

I'm a relative newbie, but I think I have a handle on Gus' decision. Feel free to tell me I'm full of it.

You can't think in terms of pot odds at that point in the tourney. You have to look at it in terms of possible winnings. I'm gonna try to do the math here, but forgive me if I get it messed up.

With Gus holding 10's, there are 24 possible hands he's a huge dog to (6 each of A, K, Q, J). There are 96 hands that he's a slight favorite to (16 each of AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, and QJ) and very few hands that Phillips would play in that situation that TT would dominate.

By making this call, essentially Hansen is betting at least 1.5:1 and probably 3.5:1 in prize money on what's a 1:1 shot at making his hand. That means that in 100 similar situations, Gus would average about 50 wins and 50 losses.

Prize money for 3rd place was $250,000, while prize for 2nd place was $500,000 and 1st place was $1,100,000. Fifty times, Gus goes away with 250,000, and 50 times, Gus comes away with the chance to make $1,100,000. Let's say that of those 50 times, he wins 5/6 of them(with a 5-1 chip lead), or 43. That means 7 times he ends up with the 2nd place $$.

50(250,000) + 7(500,000) + 43(1,100,000) = 12,500,000 + 3,500,000 + 47,300,000 = 63,300,000. So by making that call, Gus would average 633,000 in winnings.

However, if Gus folds, and hangs around until the short stack is taken out (not sure how to figure a percentage for this possibility), his chance at winning goes up. Say the short stack goes out every time. That means that Gus and Phillips would be about even in heads-up. So 50 times Gus would win 1,1000,000 and 50 times he'd win 500,000.

50(1,100,000) + 50(500,000) = 55,000,000 + 25,000,000 = 80,000,000 for an average win of 800,000.

So by making that call in that spot, Hansen effectively cost himself 800,000 - 633,000 = 167,000 in prize money.

Bad call.

[Nick B.]

It wasn't actually a coin flip, Gus was like a 57-43 favorite. And Gus could discount AA and KK as Paul would likely have played them differently.

[thetman]

What does everyone think of Gus? Did he just get very lucky last season? Is he that good? I'm curious.

[CrisBrown]

Hi thetman,

[ QUOTE ]
What does everyone think of Gus? Did he just get very lucky last season? Is he that good? I'm curious.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's that good. As Howard Lederer said in an interview last season, "Gus can play a King-nine offsuit because he makes such great decisions throughout the hand, and that makes him very dangerous." When Howard Lederer says Gus makes great decisions, I'm inclined to take his word for it. And from what I've seen of Gus' play -- both on the WPT and online -- he is one of the very best post-flop NL players I've ever watched.

Yes, he's definitely that good.

Cris

[William]

Yes, he's definitely that good.

When I see my friend Gus in a few weeks during the eastern holydays, I'll be glad to tell him that you consider him one of the best [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Maybe I'll ask him what he thought in this specific spot [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[CrisBrown]

Hiya William,

My all-time favorite Gus Hansen comment happened in the table chat at Phil Hellmuth's UB table about a year ago. Gus' second WPT win had just been televised, and one of the players asked Phil what he thought of Gus. Phil complimented Gus' play, and one of the railbirds said: "Gus sucks. I beat him at a .25/.50 NL table today. All you have to do is get good cards."

Phil's response: "Duh."

Cris

[DanTheCardMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, he's definitely that good.

When I see my friend Gus in a few weeks during the eastern holydays, I'll be glad to tell him that you consider him one of the best [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Maybe I'll ask him what he thought in this specific spot [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. I believe you when you say you know the guy and I'd certainly be interested in hearing what he has to say about it. Thanks.

[Army Eye]

[ QUOTE ]
What does everyone think of Gus? Did he just get very lucky last season? Is he that good? I'm curious.

[/ QUOTE ]


He is scary good.

[Duke]

He's one of the best 5 or 10 players in the world. I'd consider saying that he is -the- best, just because of the consistency he shows that others in his class do not.

~D

[Dynasty]

I think your analysis is also tainted because you aren't allowing for Phillips to push all-in with 99-66 which he often will, especially 99 and 88. He could also make this play with ATs. Remember, he made a big reraise with J9s against Gus.