Basic 08 situation I'm unclear on: top trips

[Fraubump]

I must confess I tend toward low hands in o8, but I dutifully call with my 4 cards T+ when I get them. But I don't always know what to do when I get some of the flop. Here's a typical situation where I'm unclear on whether I bet or not. A hand from today:

I have Th Ts Js Jc one off the button. 6 Callers, including me, the blinds and the button.

Flop Tc 4h 2c

Assuming I am against A3 and the flush draw, according to various 2 dimes sims, I have about 1/3 ev against just those two hands if they are in separate hands. Other hands are generally just paying off, but of course some can win, like overpairs hitting and straights and the runner flush, so if I get any extra callers or if there are two A3 out there, I guess I'm happy to bet. Am I thinking about this right?

It's checked to me. What do I do?

My instinct is to bet to make low draws and flush draws pay, but

[El Dukie]

First off, don't always call with 4 cards T+. Especially with JJTT. The problem being that even if you hit your set, there are plenty of overcards that can hurt you, given that lots of people like to play KK or even QQ. If the overcard doesn't come, then a low card almost certainly will, and you're then playing for only half the pot! Even double-suited, JJTT is marginally a +EV hand, at least according to Bill Boston's sims.

That aside, given your position and the number of limpers (I'm assuming it's a relatively passive game), I think your TTJJ call here was probably okay. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] It's a reasonable enough hand, and you should be able to get away from it if you don't hit. The number of limpers also would seem to indicate that they're probably holding low cards, so your chances of seeing a high flop have gone up a bit.

I think you need to bet here when it's checked to you. Yes, you need to make the low draws and flush draws pay to beat you. You may also get to take a free card in case one of the draws gets there on the turn. (Doubtful, but some players love to check-raise when they get the nuts as opposed to betting out.) If the flush card does hit, and there are a number of callers, and you don't fill up, then you'll probably have to fold the river. In Omaha, unlike Hold'em, trips is very much a drawing hand, and you usually need to fill up in order to pound away on the turn or river.

[Fraubump]

I don't play all 4 T+, though I do usually play 2 pairs. ATTK is one I'd avoid and other ones like that with gaps. I feel better with something like QQJT.

If you don't like JJTT, how about the other 2 pairs. Obviously any with AA are fine and I'd guess KK too, so that leaves QQJJ and QQTT--you playing them? Suitedness matter? Suitedness of queens and lower seems generally irrelevant with high only hands as you can't stand any pressure.

[El Dukie]

QQJJ and QQTT really depend on the table and my position. In a passive game, if I'm in late position, with lots of early limpers, I might limp in with them (though usually only if I've got at least one suit working as a backup draw possibility). I won't play them in early position. I want to see a lot of people in the hand before I start speculating with something like two high pair. QQJJ is better than QQTT, but it's not really a huge difference. One advantage with two pair as opposed to something like QQJT is that it's easier to get away from the hand if the flop misses you -- you're more likely to flop a str8 draw with a hand with greater "stretch", so you're more likely to get tied to the hand. Of course, you're more likely to actually make a str8 as well....

Being suited is definitely an advantage. Not because you're looking to draw to a Queen-high flush draw on the flop. You're right that you shouldn't be taking any pressure with a weak flush draw. Your hope, however, is that if a backdoor flush draw comes in, your weak flush might be good. Suppose you flop a str8 draw with QQJT, you make your str8 on the turn, and the turn card also puts two of your suit on board. You're free-rolling somebody who might have the same str8 but no flush redraw. Redraws are added equity.

[clovenhoof]

A's are more dangerous than K's because they represent a low card, and because there are very few combinations of flops with an A where three aces are the nuts, because they double the number of potential str8s.

The big attraction of two pair is that your chances of hitting one of them on the flop are slightly less than one in four. Everything else depends on the texture of the game -- in a tight game, you'll get some really nice free cards and sometimes can pick up the pot on the turn where low isn't there and the pot doesn't justify a chase. In a loose game, you might have the best hand but be drawing almost dead, and for half the pot no less.

Personally I see more value in the KQJT hands than the KKQJ hands because top two plays almost as well as top set, and it brings with it an open-ender. But you asked about pairs, not connectors.

'hoof

[Buzz]

"Personally I see more value in the KQJT hands than the KKQJ hands because top two plays almost as well as top set, and it brings with it an open-ender."

Hoof - Interesting. Kind of a moot point with me, because I'm going to want to see the flop with either of these hands, if they are at least single suited. (Non-suited, I might back away from either of them, especially KQJTn, depending).

I much prefer KKQJd to KQJTd (by about 40.7 to 31.2). Similarly, I prefer KKQJs to KQJTs.

But I've seen your point of view advocated elsewhere. Maybe it depends on one's playing style.

Buzz

[chaos]

The unsuited high two pair I'll play are AAKK, AAQQ, AAJJ, KKQQ. I might stretch it to KKJJ if the conditions are right. Having a suited A or K helps.

QQJJ, QQTT, and JJTT are trap hands. If you have top set you are usually playing for only half the pot. When you are playing for the whole pot there will be a straight possible so you will not have the nuts.

[Buzz]

"I think you need to bet here when it's checked to you. Yes, you need to make the low draws and flush draws pay to beat you. You may also get to take a free card in case one of the draws gets there on the turn."

El Dukie - Before thinking this through, my natural inclination would also have been to bet here. However, after carefully thinking it over, I think I (or anyone) would do better by checking.

After a flop of Tc2c4h, ThTsJsJc is the current nuts - but it will not be the nuts on the river. Let me phrase that a bit differently - it is impossible for three tens to be the nuts on the river.

Sometimes three tens wins - but it is never the nuts. And when three tens does win, it generally does so in games where only two or three people have seen a flop of Tc2c4h. It is highly unlikely that three tens will hold up in a game where six people have seen that flop.

The nut low and/or nut flush draws will pay to continue. (It would be bizarre to think otherwise). You can make them pay, but to do so, you will also have to pay! Goes against the grain to give someone a free card. But when you hold ThTsJsJc, after a flop of Tc2c4h you’re getting a free card yourself! Your set of tens won’t hold up here any more than they’ll improve to quads. Something in between three tens and quad tens is over ninety percent to take the high half of this pot!

Players with nut draws will continue to a bet. (It would be naive to think otherwise). The question in my mind is how many players with non-nut draws will continue to a bet. I think most players with the second nut low and/or second nut flush draws will also continue - and even some players with third or fourth nut low and/or flush draws may continue. And someone with a set of fours or twos, or maybe with two pairs, will probably continue. Usually someone will have either the nut or second nut flush draw - but they won't both be out there. The same is true of lows, but the second nut low runs into the nut low more often than first and second nut flushes collide.

What it boils down to is you need enough of your opponents paying in order to justify a bet.

In a loose, passive pre-flop game, the tricky part is knowing how loose the game will be after the flop. Omaha-8 games that are loose before the flop are often tight after the flop. I don't think that's as true in Texas hold 'em.

If you bet and the hands that really don't fit well with this flop fold, then you have somewhat increased your chances of winning - but not by much. That's the rub - not by much.

Contrast the above with having a straight and betting to protect your hand. When you have a straight, you don’t want someone with a low set or two pair drawing out on you. You make them pay to draw. But three tens is not in the same category as a straight and does not merit the same treatment.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[El Dukie]

Buzz,

You're right in that trip tens can't be the nuts on the river. There must be either a paired board, an overcard, flush, or str8 possible. I still think I'd bet here, given that I might be able to buy a free card on the expensive street in a relatively passive game. Even if a low card comes, many of the more passive players will check-call nut lows on the turn if there was a flop bettor, because they're afraid they'll get quartered. It really depends on the table. Nobody with a nut draw will fold, true, but if the board does pair on the turn and you're holding a high set, you're looking at a potential scoop, depending whether another low card comes. Against five other players, I think I'd bet, and in a loose-passive game with that board, I'd expect most of them to call. I'm not suggesting you're going to drive people out. I think you're playing top set like a good drawing hand where you're looking to make a boat with 7 outs on the flop and 10 on the turn. If checked to on the turn, and the board hasn't paired, I'd check. But I'd bet the flop. I'll grant that it's easier to get away from the hand if you check the flop and a flush or 3rd wheel card comes on the turn and someone bets, but you might be getting pot odds to see the river anyway (say a high flush card hits the turn and you can scoop with a paired board)....

I'd agree with checking if it was something like a top set of 8s or 7s (Meaning that a low was guaranteed, and there's absolutely no potential for a scoop -- Though I don't play pairs of 8s or 7s, unless I've just posted), and I also agree with your other post where you advocate jamming with top set if there are two high cards on the flop.

[Buzz]

"I still think I'd bet here, given that I might be able to buy a free card on the expensive street in a relatively passive game."

El Dukie - I suppose it's possible.

"Even if a low card comes, many of the more passive players will check-call nut lows on the turn if there was a flop bettor, because they're afraid they'll get quartered. It really depends on the table."

Agreed.

"I think you're playing top set like a good drawing hand where you're looking to make a boat with 7 outs on the flop and 10 on the turn."

I'm playing this top set like a good drawing hand. In general, I'm playing jacks, tens or nines as top set like a good drawing hand. (and maybe some others - but not generally aces or kings - and for a different reason, not low sets, in general).

"I'll grant that it's easier to get away from the hand if you check the flop and a flush or 3rd wheel card comes on the turn and someone bets,"

It's damned hard to get away from the hand when that happens, in my humble opinion, whether you bet the flop or not. I'm not advocating checking the flop because it would be easier to get away from the hand if a low card appears on the turn.

"but you might be getting pot odds to see the river anyway (say a high flush card hits the turn and you can scoop with a paired board)...."

Yes. With five opponents seeing the flop, even if there is no betting on the turn, and even if the flush (but no low) makes on the turn, one player bets and accidently flashes the nut flush plus the nut low draw, causing all the other players to fold - even then you're getting favorable odds to see the river for one big bet.

"I'd agree with checking if it was something like a top set of 8s or 7s."

If you are fairly certain all five of your opponents (or even four of them) will call your bet, the bet does not seem horrid. Figure you need to make a full house to have much of a chance to win here. Also figure that roughly half the time when you do make your full house you'll have to split the pot with low. Also figure that for the purpose of getting favorable odds for betting, the money already in the pot is dead money, having nothing to do with the odds for making a fresh bet. In that case (those cases) half the time you earn four bets from four opponents on this betting round, and the other half of the time you earn one and a half bets from four opponents on this betting round. So with four opponents, you're averaging about 2.75 bets, plus implied bets, on this betting round. Because of implied odds, betting here with four opponents is not horrid. But get down to only three opponents, and I think the balance tilts the other way. It's that close, in my humble opinion.

There is one more consideration, which might not matter much in games with really poor players. By not betting the flop, you make it more difficult for your opponents to put you on cards if you bet the turn. In other words, nobody will be able to put you on the very strong hand you will have if the board pairs on the turn. And after the betting is checked around on the second betting round, someone may well bet into you on the third betting round if the board does pair on the turn.

As long as you are fairly certain of getting five callers, you're getting so much fresh but dead money into the pot that it's probably favorable to bet the flop. However, if you drop down to three callers, I don't think it is.

Most games in which I play where six of us would have seen the flop for a single bet would drop down to three or fewer opponents after this flop - if I bet this flop from the cut-off seat after it was checked to me. That's what I would expect, based on my experience.

Thus, on balance, someone with a reputation for solid play probably does better by checking this flop.

Just my (studied) opinion.

Buzz