An Interesting WSOP scenario...

djdonnel · #1 01-07-2004, 03:29 PM

A friend and I were discussing the following scenario:

You're in the WSOP (or any other big buy in/large field, multi-day nl tourney).

You're dealt pocket aces on the first hand (or very very early on, meaning everyone's stacks are still pretty much even, and you haven't had much of a chance to scout out the play of everyone at the table). You are faced with calling an all-in raise (either someone went all in before you acted, or you made a raise, and were reraised all-in). Do you call with your rockets, or muck em?

Does your decision change if you're sitting at a table with a bunch of unknowns at the table vs taking a seat and finding the likes of Chan, Ivey and Hellmuth all sitting to your left?

I'd love to hear some thoughts...

djdonnel · #2 01-07-2004, 03:34 PM

In case it wasn't clear in my initial post, we are to assume that calling the all-in raise would put you all in yourself...

OrangeKing · #3 01-07-2004, 04:24 PM

With any other hand, there is no way I'd call - the 10,000 chips I stand to lose are way more valuable than the 10,000+ I'd be trying to get. Plus, it's very likely that the other player has aces (especially on a reraise), and on the first hand I can't assume they're a horrible player. So I'm likely to be an underdog, and I'd want to be a solid favorite to make that call.

With aces? I never want to be in this situation, that's for sure. But I think you have to make that call, especially if you're at a table of pros like you mentioned, since you might not get another shot at pulling in a lot of chips the rest of the day. It's always hard to put your whole tournament on the line on the first hand, but if ever there was a time to do it, that would be it.

river_runner · #4 01-08-2004, 01:23 AM

If you lose AA heads up pre-flop, then maybe its just not your lucky day. The point is to be in the money, in order to be in the money you have to win hands, you can't win by folding AA. This is the best scenario one could ask for.

OrangeKing · #5 01-08-2004, 10:05 AM

Oh, don't get me wrong, I'd have to play my aces every time. What I'd hate is going all-in on my first hand, after having spent $10,000 to get in. There is, of course, no better situation to be in given the circumstances, but I'd have a lot less stress building my stack slowly over the course of the day. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Luca · #6 01-12-2004, 01:27 AM

Funnily enough a similar situation occured once while I was in a home tournament with my friends (although the buy-in was a little less, and their were fewer players, and no pros on my table).

Anyway, one guy goes all in before me on the first hand. I look down and see AA. All the thoughts contained in this thread rushed quickly thru my mind. Should I call and try to double up quickly, or fold and slug it out when blinds got higher, knowing my superior skill would make me favorite on my table. Its also worthwhile to point out that the chip leader after the first hand had NEVER made it into the money in this particular home tournament (which incidently were the first 3 places).

Anyway, I decide to risk it, flipped over my AA, only to my horror saw my friend had an Ace and a Joker!! I was dead in the water. AA is no match for AA suited, and he hit the flush and put me out.

So in some cases it may be the right decison to fold.
But i dont think they use jokers in the WSOP so i would call.

harboral · #7 01-07-2004, 03:40 PM

Getting bumped out of a tournament, at any point, sucks. However, you couldn't get me to lay down Aces with a gun! You are either a reasonable favorite, or a huge favorite. Now if your question had involved AK, KK or QQ - then I would have a tough time. I have laid down KK in a tournament (that's the toughest decision), along with all lower hands - because I want to guarantee that I stay in the tournament. A recent post asked about QQ and although most agreed (Ray Zee also) that you HAD to play them (the situation was more favorable), I might still lay them down to try and guarantee a spot in the money. I have a lot of tourny wins under my belt with this strategy - but on the other hand, I have never won a major..............so maybe I need to gamble more.

djdonnel · #8 01-07-2004, 04:08 PM

My initial thoughts on the subject were very similar to yours. With aces, you know you have the best hand right now, and if you can't get your money in the pot with aces, then when can you?

But my friend made me second guess my initial thoughts about it in this situation. The WSOP this yearis a six day tournament...most other multi-day tourneys are at least 3 or 4 days. So when faced with this scenario we are days away from getting into the money, let alone winning the whole thing.

As big a favorite as aces are, we all know that they do in fact get cracked. The question that needs to be asked: is it worth risking (even as a rather large favorite with aces)getting knocked out of the tournament right then and there to double up your stack this early? Will having $20,000 in chips this early in make you significantly more likely to last 4-5 more days?

I'm beginning to lean towards answering no to both of those questions. Especially if I'm sitting at a table with a bunch of unknowns, where there's a good chance I may be one of the best, if not the best player at my table. In this case, I can be reasonably sure that over the course of a few hours I can accumulate just as many chips through superior play both pre and post flop, without risking my entire stack.

Which is why I posed the idea of sitting down with a table with the like of a Phil Helmuth, Phil Ivey and Co. I certainly would not be as confident that I will win over time due to superior play..probably the opposite in fact. I'd feel like I'd be overmatched in the long run. Thus I'd be more inclined to get all my chips in now when I know I have the best of it, rather than take my chances clashing with the pros in situations where I may not know where I am.

JohnnyF · #9 01-07-2004, 06:27 PM

"Especially if I'm sitting at a table with a bunch of unknowns, where there's a good chance I may be one of the best, if not the best player at my table."

I would be surprised if this was true. There is not a single pro tourney player who would fold AA in this situation.

Ulysses · #10 01-07-2004, 09:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Will having $20,000 in chips this early in make you significantly more likely to last 4-5 more days?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know. It'll make you significantly more likely to last 1 day, though.

[ QUOTE ]
I can be reasonably sure that over the course of a few hours I can accumulate just as many chips through superior play both pre and post flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a random table of WSOP entrants, you are reasonably sure you can play with a bigger advantage than getting all your chips in the middle as a likely 4:1 favorite? Wow.