To Bet the River or not?

[CJC]

Hello,

Here is a hand from a $5-10 game the other morning up at "The Woods".

At this point I dont really remember all the cards that were in play except for mine and my main 2 opponents in the hand. However,all our hands were 'live'...

It should be mentioned that both opponents involved in this hand were reasonably decent players. ( opponent 2 being the better of the two )

Ok. on to the hand.

A low card brought it in.
Opponent 1 calls with a 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
opponent 2 calls with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
I look down and see (q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and call

4th street
----------
Opponent 1 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
opponent 2 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
ME (q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Opponent 1 bets Five bucks..opponent 2 calls as do I obviously.

5th street
-----------

Opponent 1 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
opponent 2 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
ME (q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Opponent 1 bets $10
opponent 2 calls $10
I raise to $20
Opponent 1 makes it $30
Oppnent 2 calls the $20 in raises
I cap at $40
Both call.

Sixth Street
-------------

Opponent 1 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
opponent 2 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
ME (q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Both opponents check to me. I bet $10 and they both call.

River I catch brick. Both check to me.

Do I bet or check?

[patrick dicaprio]

bet. if one of these players makes two pair they will call just to see your hand even if they know they are beaten. obviously you are worried about player 2 since he has a possible flush, your hand is somewhat obvious and if he is a good player he could checkraise you. but it is unlikely since he would most likely bet if he made a flush, so you are most likely good. so bet it.

pat

[Al_Capone_Junior]

On 5th the three clubs reraise you, trying to sell a flush. But then three clubs check-calls when it's obvious you don't have a full house, nor do you have a better flush. Mmmmmmm.... then they both check the river again. I think you're ahead. However, if you chickened out and checked I wouldn't be that upset.

al

[CJC]

Hi Al,

On 5th..the three clubs didn't re-raise.. he just called all the bets and raises.

CJ

[Al_Capone_Junior]

[Andy B]

I'm not going to fault anyone for slow-playing rolled-up Queens, but I would tend to complete on third street once there were a couple of limpers in. Obviously, they're not going anywhere, and someone else may come along for the ride as well. I know that when I play $5/10, there isn't a whole lot of difference between what I'll play for $2 and what I'll play for $5, and I think that's true for most players.

I'd bet the river. You know player 2 and we don't, but a lot of the folks I play with would bet a flush on the river, being afraid that you would check behind on the end. A lot of the folks I play with will, in fact, check behind on the end with those three Queens. But a lot of the folks I play against also don't play very well. You've got a pretty good chance of being paid off in two spots by worse hands, and I think that this more than compensates for the times that you get check-raised.

[CJC]

Hi,

Assume Player 2 will ONLY pay off if I am beaten..

CJ

[patrick dicaprio]

there are not too many 5-10 players you can say this about, myself included when i played 5-10. which i guess is the point as to why you should bet. of course if you are right then you should not bet, but you would have to be right about two players not just one since player one can call also if player 2 folds.

pat

[rtrombone]

You have the first guy beat. MRBAA, how can you possibly put him on three aces or kings? He wouldn't have stopped raising when the best CJC can possibly have is three queens. He's got either aces up or kings up. CJC said he's decent, so he wouldn't go ape on 5th with a diamond draw.

So the first guy is going to pay you. This makes it a clear value bet. Who cares about the second guy? If he made his straight or flush, he's going to call you, and you lose. Fine. If he missed, he's going to fold, and you will make one big bet from the first guy.

According to TOP, you value bet when you are a favorite if called. Whatever draw the second guy had going into 7th, did he have a better than 50% chance of getting there? Not likely. He probably had a 20-40% chance of getting there. So 60-80% of the time he will have missed. 60-80% of the time you will make money on your bet from the first guy.

Of course, you may get raised. If the first guy raises you, he's got a boat. You should probably call because of the size of the pot, but I think better players than I would be able to lay your hand down. If the second guy raises you, he got there. If your read on this guy is so good that you know he wouldn't call you unless he has you beat, certainly you can fold to this raise, right?

[MRBAA]

Okay, I've played in the Foxwoods 5-10 for about 20 hours over the last 4 months, so that's not a ton of experience to draw on. But I've found that in the type of situation CJ describes here -- more than one opponent with more than one bet on a big bet street -- I'm often beat. Just as a lot of loose players will stay to long and call too much, many will also back off too much when there's raising. Especially when the action's coming from someone who is seen as a "good" player. I've gotten several comments about this in hands I've lost where opponents played very passively. In my last session, I lost with trips to a straight and my opponent checked sixth and the river to me (I checked back since I was pretty sure he had the straight). he said something like "I was worried about you because I know you play good cards". (CJ, this was an older regular named Nicky(?) Anyway, in this situation, I don't think it's out of the question for Player 1 to have trip kings and Player 2 to have a flush going into the river. I also think either could improve. I really don't feel there's much value in a bet here, especially if player 2 won't call if he doesn't have a flush.