AK UTG

[naphand]

Now I'm in the mood to post some hands...this appears a straightforward hand but gets tricky...

6-handed Party $1/$2. BB is a complete moron who calls anything to the River and rarely raises, CO is LAG to a degree (overplays his hands), Button and SB are reasonably selective but poor post-flop.

I am UTG with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and open-raise

naphand raises, MP folds, CO folds, Button re-raises, SB folds, BB calls, naphand caps, Button calls, BB calls.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

This flop looks good to me, and I play fast to make the draw (if) pay.

BB checks, naphand bets, Button calls, BB raises, naphand re-raises, button calls, BB calls.

Turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB bets, naphand calls, Button calls.

The flush card has hit, and BB plays this like he has hit it, by betting out. I am not sure, but the call from the Button convinces me he does not have the flush.

River: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB bets, naphand folds, Button calls.

The fact that the BB bets again convinces me my Aces are beat, he either has 2-pair or the flush. The button would only call with a strong hand here (on the Turn) so I figure I am beat and fold this.

Comments on my play? And any ideas on what the Button and BB had? Would you play this any different?

Results later. Thanks in advance.

[AJo Go All In]

this is one of the worse mistakes you can make in poker. terrible fold. even more so given that it's a 6-handed game and you describe BB as a complete moron.

[naphand]

He's a moron as he plays almost anything BUT he almost never raises (or leads the betting).

This is quite normal in the Party $1/$2 and a raise in these circumstances, plus a lead beat inevitably means he can beat top pair. Top pair K kicker is not an invincible hand, and that is all I had.

I accept the thinking behind what you say, and in general I agree, but this was a play I have seen many times in Party and generally a call is a wasted bet. I see lots of players calling TPTK (or even TP weak kicker ... [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]) to the River against a player who MUST be holding something better.

He was loose and PASSIVE - against a more aggressive player capable of 3-betting TP then a call down would be correct IMO. But thanks for your comment, it will be interesting to see what others say.

[Ikke]

Terrible, terrible fold.

Let's go through whole this hand based on your assumptions. You say about the BB: "BB is a complete moron who calls anything to the River and rarely raises".

From this I gather that there is no way that he makes 'semi-advanced' plays like check-raising a flushdraw for value here. Yet, you rank the possibility on the flop of him having a flushdraw quite high ("..and I play fast to make the draw (if) pay). This seems a contradiction to your assumption. But, you use the same assumption to support your fold on the river ("...and a raise in these circumstances, plus a lead beat inevitably means he can beat top pair"). Remember that you're getting 1:14.5 (!!!) on the river, so a small uncertainty in your assumption does matter a lot.

Also, your assumption about BB implies to me that he plays irrational, in a way, that it is likely for him to play his hand based on absolute handstrength and not relative handstrength (so taking your likely hand into account). Often, very weak players, when they have a hand, simply bet into you, regardless whether you popped them back on the prior streets or not. So, I wouldnt rule out an ace.

My guess is that BB indeed has a flush, but that the probability of you having the best hand is high enough to call the river (in that case BB is likely to have the ace). If BB had the flush, then your statement about BB being a complete moron who rarely raises (meaning only with very good hands, because you used that to support folding) should be re-assessed. Only that makes it worth calling (if your right that a fold is correct, calling is only slightly -EV).

A few numbers. Suppose your chances of winning is:

1/20: EV=-1*0.95 + 14.5*0.05= -0,225 BB
1/10: EV=-1*0,90 + 14,5*0,10= +0,55 BB
1/5 : EV=-1*0,80 + 14,5*0,20= +2,10 BB

So, if you only win 20% of the times, you cost yourself about 2hours of work by folding (assuming you win 1 BB an hour). While if you fold and your 100% right (which seems more unlikely to me than being less than 80% of the times wrong when you call) you only gain 1 BB. And a high percentage, if not all, of that BB should be regained by the information you acquire (since your focus is going to be on the bad players).

Regards

[naphand]

Excellent summary of your thinking. The maths says it all - and even 1/20 wins is not a terrible loss.

The player concerned would pretty much play any two cards that could make a hand (connectors, any 2 suited, any pair, any 2 royals) no matter what happened PF. He would call down with any part of the flop unless the board got really scary.

His calling on the flop and check-raise on the flop smacked of flush draw to me, but I have seen this with 2-pair. His card selection was poor and he almost never released any hand, but perhaps he was not so stupid as to realise when he had a betting hand. This was my read on him, which was right in this case.

That said, your reply has put in context my play in general, which is much appreciated. It is rare for me to fold a River bet in these circumstances, I think my error was not folding the Turn/calling the River. Both plays were better than my actual play.

Your post has given me some food for thought, and will allow me to better judge my options in future. Thanks.

[stripsqueez]

i think fold is bad

i read your QQ post and K8s post as well as this one - i am struck by the thought that you play in a terrible school

getting advice from this forum is a good idea in trying to evaluate your play, especially if you play in a bad school because such a school will often flatter you - i see lots of players who think they are good poker players when in reality they are average poker players who win in bad schools

advice is good but a far better way to learn is to play in a better school - a low limit player may become very good at winning at that limit and if thats all they wish to achieve thats fine - ultimately though its unlikely that a good poker player will learn enough to get better playing in bad schools such as the one you do

not bashing the pot with QQ, limping with K8s, and making bad folds on the river such as this one will cost you money in the 5/10 6 max games i currently play in - you might still beat the game as there are few good players in this game either - if you played this way in a game that only contained expert players you would likely get slaughtered

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[naphand]

Yes - it is a terrible school, which means I can get away with some poor plays - certainly sub-optimal plays. That is also part of the reason I play there.

When I have clocked up a good number of hands - say 30,000+ and have had the chance to work on some of the ideas here, and iron out my play a bit, I will try to play at some higher limits. $5/$10 is out of my bankroll at the moment but some other sites offer intermediate limits shorthanded so I will test myself there. I agree that this is necessary as it really highlights the weaknesses/holes.

The QQ post was a bit exceptional, I knew I played it badly before I posted it (in fact I knew I was playing it badly at the time), but I wanted some feedback on how the hand developed. The K8s and this one were more normal. I do frequently make some good plays that I am very pleased with when I review, but it is the types of hands I am posting here, perhaps more marginal, that help to really define the limits of my game, which is why I post them. They may not even be typical, but they show my own lack of understanding, which needs to be addressed, as you say.

I don't feel ready to up my limits just yet, the bankroll is just not enough, and my experience too little. It is very easy to think you are better than you are. You guys help keep me aware of what I need to do. Much appreciated.

[all_aces]

Naphand,

Here's some great advice I received, and I'll pass it on to you. I don't know how many times it has saved/made me money:

If you're not sure if you should call preflop, you should fold. If you're not sure if you should call on the river, you should call.

Regards,
all_aces

[all_aces]

Naphand,

That advice has served me well, but I should point out that I only play 25-50 or higher. Nonetheless, I think it still works as a 'very' general rule of thumb.

Regards,
all_aces

[naphand]

A good rule of thumb based on sound thinking. I like rules of thumb as they help to focus the mind on the decision-making process. In this case its kind of: "on the Flop you must have a good reason to call, on the River you must have a good reason to fold".

Thanks for that.