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#1
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If a player moves in in nolimit holdem and you know he absolutely must have two aces or ace king suited, what hand, besides aces, will give you the best chance, head up against him?
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#2
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Maybe something like 67 suited? Or am I way off?
SpaceAce |
#3
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There are 4 ways he can have AKs and 6 ways he can have AA, since you have no A or K in your hand. TT wins about 33% against this line up.
If you had KK, then it's 6:2 he has AA and your win rate is less. This is just a semi-educated guess. |
#4
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The first answer that pops into my head is TT. My second guess would be 88, but my quick (relative term here) mental math says TT.
I'm sure I'm not taking something into consideration, but it's late and I don't want to run any numbers. Maybe tomorrow... GoT |
#5
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Against AA the best hand is J10 suited as long as one of the Aces isn't the same suit
Against AKs the best hand is a pair of Kings |
#6
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AKs
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#7
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There are only a few candidates: consider pairs, AKs and
other suited connectors. Intuitively, KK seems wrong as now the likelihood of AA is 6:2 now (instead of 6:4 for other pocket pairs excluding the other aces) as another post had mentioned. Here is a list of the reasonable candidates and the equity values, ignoring some "not so good" hands by looking at the first two equity values: hand: equity vs AA; equity vs AKs; overall equity KK: 0.1805395; 0.6589361; 0.300139 TT: 0.1925093; 0.5406302; 0.331758 (better than JJ, QQ) 88: 0.1953829; 0.5247592; 0.327133 (better than 99) 66: 0.1954247; 0.5230587; 0.326478 (better than 77) AKs:0.1214051; 0.5; 0.310703 T9s:0.2220425; 0.3798030; 0.28515 (better than KQs,QJs,98s) 65s:0.2249884; 0.3890540; 0.29061 (better than 87s) Thus, TT has the best equity outside of the other AA. The answer does seem intuitively appealing and is not at all surprising. Now, if you don't have the other Aces, you usually can only call if the amount you have to contribute (B) divided by (B+P) where P is the pot size before the call is at least the overall equity given by the extension of the table computed above. |
#8
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I'm actually a bit surprised that TT was it instead of a lower pair. I figured the straight draws that were possible would knock it down a couple notches (much like 87s out performs 9Ts or TJs against AA).
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#9
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The TT must do better then lower pairs because it is more difficult to end up counterfeited with 2 pairs on board.
D. |
#10
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Your numbers are good, but what about AKs?
It should not be among the others in the list, 1010,QQ,JJ, etc. When I hold AKs, I don't want to tie this player virtually 50% of the time when he has AKs and lose the remaining 38% when he has AA. 12(24)% win no good. Think real percentage for AKs is closer to 24%. |
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