Folding sets before the river

[Nutz&Boltz]

Is it ever correct to fold a set before the river?

Since the only reasonable way you could be drawing dead (1 out) is if someone else has a larger set and putting players on sets is akin to seeing monsters under the bed.

I made a big mistake at a 2-4 game last night and realized I didn't have any general rules on the topic because it happens so rarely.

I'm at a very loose(6-8 callers preflop)and passive table.
I'm in the BB w/pocket jacks. (Suits are not important) 7callers to me and I check.(maybe a little weak?)
flop is 9,10,J rainbow. I have top set.
Small blind bets out I call planning on raising the turn when the bets double. MP1,MP2 and Button call.
Turn is the 8 DOH! now I am 90% sure I am behind to a ST8.
SB bets, now with 6 Big Bets in the pot and 10 outs I call. Pot odds 7-1, my outs are 10 to hit a boat or better which is about 4.6-1 with One card to come.
I call, MP call, Button raises, SB reraises

2 Big Bets to me and my read is the Button and SB will cap with their straights.
I fold not wanting to put that many chips in the pot on a draw(a weak-tight mistake, which had a lot to do with a very cold streak I am on and not the pot odds)

River is (you guessed it)a 9 giving me a folded boat.
This hand made me realize I had read or experiences little about drawing for a boat, I was not prepared. Please share thoughts on this.

[Barry]

This is a very close one and not one that I could figure out in the heat of battle, but with the benefit of time...

When it's 2 bets back to you there are 13 BB in the pot, which gives you 6.5:1 odds to hit your 4.6:1 shot, a clear call. Even if you assume that the MP will fold, the button will cap, and the SB will fold (the most conservative view) you will need to call 3 to win the 15 BB's then in the pot, you have 5:1 pot odds. Any other callers gives you better odds.

So, although it's tough to call here if you're stuck or short stacked, calling is correct, but you already knew that.

Many would advocate raising preflop here, but given all the limpers already in, calling is not awful. Also, given the coordinated nature of the board, I would raise the flop, you don't want to let a hand like KJ draw to his gutshot and you want to charge the open enders to draw. If you get 3-bet, you can assume you're up against a made straight and you can then draw to your boat.

[squiffy]

Given the coordinated nature of the board, isn't it better long-term not to raise the flop? Since you are much more likely to be raising it for a better hand or made straight? Isn't this the kind of flop where you slow down with your set?

[Barry]

I think this is a bit of seeing monsters under the bed.

This is a little better than having a flush draw and raising. 1) you will be ahead a good % of the time and 2) you will have 10 outs by the river even if you are up against KQ.

What you want to do here is make it incorrect for someone with a K to draw to a gutshot by facing calling 2 getting only 5:1 odds rather than 9:1 immediate odds, with enough implied odds to call 1 bet on the flop. Also the Q's are coming anyway, so you should charge them to draw to their str8's with their 8 outs to improve and your 7 outs (on the flop) to improve.

[squiffy]

Thanks. I am definitely a monster phobe. Just last week I was peeking under my bed and could have sworn I saw Godzilla, King Kong, Mothra, and several flopped straights.

[ropey]

Here we go again...let me hear how horrible this is...but I prefer to wait for the turn raise. I think you will make more money in the long run with this play.

A flop raise is sometimes not even enough to knock out a K...I know, I know...you want him to call incorrectly. Since any open ended draw is likely calling anyway, bump the turn when a blank hits...and when an 8 or Q comes down on the turn, you get to save that additional flop bet.

[ QUOTE ]
Also the Q's are coming anyway, so you should charge them to draw to their str8's with their 8 outs to improve and your 7 outs (on the flop) to improve.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why not charge them 2 big bets if they want to draw?

I prefer this when a two flush comes on the flop and you are against a likely flush draw...but it is generally the same principle with three cooridinated cards out there. If knocking people out is what you want to do, then raise the turn...no gutshot is going to call two cold...but if they do, great. If you want to make them pay, you will make these openended draws pay more with 2 bets on the turn.

-ropey

[Barry]

In many cases, we will advocate waiting until the turn especially if your hand is vulnerable. Raising on the turn after a "safe" card hits is the right play. However, when the board is coordinated like that, there are going to be gutshots out there. They can correctly call 1 bet on the flop, but not 2.

When someone calls correctly, they are making money off of you, if they call incorrectly, you are making money off of them. Read TOP to brush up on this.

[squiffy]

The bottom line is, if you are making tons of money playing online and are hugely profitable, then maybe you have a pretty good understanding of poker and are right about this hand. I cannot be sure who has a better poker sense, you or the other posters, because I don't know what limits they play at and how profitable they are, as compared to you. Sometimes I find these discussions frustrating, because I am not always sure there is a correct answer.

But statistically speaking a set is an outstanding hand on the flop. And just based on general principles, if you are not betting and raising with it on the flop, you are throwing away money. Because often the straights and flushes often won't hit and even when they do hit you will sometimes fill up.

I tend to agree with you that in low limits a gut shot straight will be much less likely to fold for one or even two bets. But it just seems so obvious to me that you are losing flop bets here if you don't bet or raise.

Let's say you are correct and no one with a gut shot straight will fold. Well you will make money from them in the long run if you bet and raise on the flop. And you will make money AGAIN when you bet and raise on the turn. They aren't going to fold. They are going to CALL CALL CALL no matter what. So you should BET BET BET no matter what because most of the time you will win money.

I just don't see how NOT betting or raising the flop is BETTER for you. YOU CAN STILL BET OR RAISE THE TURN, IN ADDITION.

[Barry]

DOH!

I've got my odds all screwed up. I followed the original post and didn't think it through. Of course you guys are right 10 cards are good, 36 are not that's 3.6:1 and not 4.6:1

[slavic]

The worse your going to get on the turn call is 6 to 1 or so if they cap it.

A quick way to figure this is.

Pot odds times # of outs and then compare that with number of unknown cards.

In this case 6 * 10 outs = 60 which is more than the 46 cards to come so you call.

This isn't exact but it gives you a quick way to figure these items.