300 Big Bets

[calig]

I've read all the advice about having a 300 big bet bankroll but never thought I would experience that big a swing. I'm a part time player and get in about 300 hours per year. From the start of my playing in 2000 to November 2002 I logged a total of 900 hours and won over $9000 at $15/30 hold em (.33 big bets/hour). During the last 10 months I have lost back the entire $9000 in 180 hours of play (-1.66 big bets/hour) so I am back to starting over. I understand variance but this seems excessive to me. Has anyone else experienced this big a swing in such a small number of hours played?

[phish]

That bankroll thing is meaningful only if you're a winning player. Looking at your results, I'd say that's doubtful. At best, you're a very marginal player who got lucky and then unlucky. Or, more likely, the game was a bit easier earlier and you were a marginal winner. Now it's gotten tougher (the really bad players gave up the game and/or learn to play better) and now you're a losing player.
Poker rooms are full of self-proclaimed 'great players' who happen to have been running bad for the past eight years. Don't fall into that trap.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

with only 900 hours at a 0.33 BB/hour win rate, you may not have actually been playing a winning game of poker. There are charts in Gambling theory and other topics that might shed light on how many hours you would need to play (at that win rate and limit) to assure an overall win. I don't have the book in front of me, so I won't quote, but someone else might quote, or attempt to extrapolate at least. From my recollection I doubt 900 hours is enough to ensure a win at that particular limit and win rate.

My suggestion is to play at a lower limit until you are quite sure you are winning at a sufficient rate to be sustainable within a given bankroll. The likelyhood of losing 300 big bets is very small if you are really playing a winning game, unless your win rate is actually so small as to render your overall bankroll too small as well. My guess is that you aren't quite as good as your initial results may have led you to believe. It has happened to many others besides you so don't take it as an insult that I am saying this.

al

[Robk]

300BB is a rule of thumb. It's not nearly enough money if you're only winning $10 or so an hour at 15-30. You'd need something like 1500 BB in that case.