Making the Pot Bigger vs. Keeping it Small?

[Max Weinberg]

I've been thinking about this one lately. Ok, you pick up some premium hand in the blinds and the table has limped to you, yadda yadda. You either raise and give everyone odds to call to make whatever crap they're holding, or you just check your option and make moves when you know that they're making mistakes when they call. Chicken or the egg stuff.

The question is, even if you raise and give them correct odds to draw, does that somehow offset your status as a 4:1 favorite (I'm just making it 4:1 for the sake of argument, I'm not going to use actual hands).

You made the pot large enough that they are correct to call all kinds of hands, but aren't you more correct to be raking in that money as a 4:1 favorite? Their being correct in calling a gut-shot on the flop doesn't detract from your EV on the hand does it? He's making a call that makes him money in the long-run, but it's also making you money - you're the favorite. Maybe I'm just misunderstanding this theory from HPFAP and someone can point out where I'm wrong.

If my goal was to systematically bust every player on the face of the earth, keeping the pot small to screw with their odds would be my weapon of choice. But in a pure cash sense, raise it up, right?

[William]

Right!!!

[CMangano]

The other thing to think about is the players you play against. If they are the type who calculate odds before deciding whether or not to chase, then keeping the pot small would have its benefits. But if they are going to chase you regardless of the pot size, then I see no reason not to build as big a pot as possible.

I am sure some will disagree.

[Schneids]

[Ed Miller]

This is actually the opposite of what S&M suggest. They suggest keeping the pot small against people who chase too much and building pots against people who fold properly (or too much).

[CMangano]

I understand what they mean in HPFAP, but it seems to me that if they are going to call no matter what, then making the pot bigger would be the best option. If you're going to get drawn out on, you're going to get drawn out on. I may be way off here though and would love to hear from others who disagree.

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, you pick up some premium hand in the blinds and the table has limped to you, yadda yadda. You either raise and give everyone odds to call to make whatever crap they're holding, or you just check your option and make moves when you know that they're making mistakes when they call.

[/ QUOTE ]

You answer your own question there. When you raise preflop and they call they are making their mistake there, when you have big holdings that is. So by that mistake they have then added dead money into the pot and then get the chance to make +EV plays if the flop hits them.

So when you wanted to keep the pot small and know they are making a mistake on the flop, you always know they are making a mistake preflop.

Big unsuited cards you generally want to thin the field out though.

Take a deck of cards take the 2 cards out you want as your big hand then deal out a 10 handed game, take out the percentage of cards that usually fold preflop (you'll be doing this tighter than it actually is due to the blinds) then check out the EV on twodimes.net - if you want to make things interesting remove a few hands and see how the difference goes up/down for hands multiway vs short field.

[Max Weinberg]

I guess what I'm trying to ask is does their making +EV plays eat into your already +EV move of taking a big premium hand into a field of bad players.

If you're the 4:1 favorite and by your raise in the BB, some guy has +EV odds to call for a gut-shot, does that eat into your EV on the hand? You're still the favorite and making good money on your hand. Whether or not gut-shot boy has odds to profitably call doesn't really have any bearing on your EV, does it? He's correct in calling and you're correct in betting/raising.

Of course this whole question goes out the window if we're assuming players who are aware of pot odds, but I'm still curious to know about these implications. I'll deal out some hands later tonight and run them through twodimes to see if I can't figure it out.

[Dynasty]

How are you calculating what your odds of winning are? Often, this type of analysis assumes all hands are going to the showdown. If so, then your pre-flop raise doesn't change your favorite status.

[baggins]

if the guy limped then he's getting the same odds to call the raise from the BB. so if it's a mistake for him to limp based on pot odds, then calling the raise preflop is also a mistake. you're asking your opponents to either make mistakes preflop, or make them postflop. might as well get their chips in while you're a favorite then to let them see a cheap flop and then have correct odds to draw out on you.