value bet with trip aces on board

[mikelow]

Online 15-30. I'm dealt 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the button. EP call, folded to me. I raise to isolate (?), but both blinds call, as does EP. EP is a bit loose.

Flop is A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Checked to me, and I bet my underpair. Both blinds fold, but EP calls.

Turn is:

[A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Checked to me. I bet and EP calls.

River is:

[A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Checked to me. Is this a value bet? Results to follow.

[Ginogino]

Mike:
Clearly yes. The only question in my mind is whether you'd make more by checking to induce a bluff (that is, how often your opponent will call if you bet versus how often he'll bluff if you check). This is very player specific, of course. But most of the time EP's limp pre-flop means he doesn't hold pocket pair 8's or higher, and odds are against his holding an Ace. I'd think you'd have heard a bet from someone with a 7. Pocket 6's? Maybe, but worrying about that seems unhelpful.

This is a spot where player knowledge really pays off. I know folks who'd are slowplay addicts with any Ace in this situation, against whom I'd give more thought to checking here. I know others who'd have had to check-raise at some point before the river with any pocket pair, 7, or 4.

Gino

[Inthacup]

The only question in my mind is whether you'd make more by checking to induce a bluff (that is, how often your opponent will call if you bet versus how often he'll bluff if you check).

I assume you're talking about the river. How can he check to induce a bluff if he's last to act?

[DrSavage]

check out of turn ? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Inthacup]

lol

[elysium]

hi mike
you are very close to being a 60% favorite if called and the conditions are ok. but remember, when you make a value bet, you must have a fairly solid image. if you've been betting under-pairs strongly heads up, then you check it down here. if you have been showing down the goods, but you're up against a steamer, strongly consider checking it dowm. your image and the table has to be on a level keel and conservative-ish, just like it needs to be before bluffing, in order to value bet in these marginal situations. it is not just getting money into the pot. one component of a value bet is some realistic possibility of getting the fold, but also, and just as importantly, not being raised. if you wouldn't run a total bluff because of the conditions, then don't value bet.

it looks like you're good here. but many players tend to value bet because they have a tiny lead and want to get more money in the pot, not considering their image or the table. that's wrong because value betting is not strategically betting to fold out middle pairs higher than yours, hands that may fold. value betting is done with only a slim chance of getting a fold and a more likely chance of getting called by lesser hands. obviously, if your opponent is going to fold all hands that you beat, and only call with better hands, value betting is wrong. you're then risking an avoidable raise. here mike, he looks K high to me and i think he will call. he may have 22, 33, but he also may have middle pair. there is a slim chance that he will fold it if bluffing conditions exist, and as long as you are perceived as solid, go for it. the great majority of the time, you won't have all these factors, and therefore you should usually check it down.

[Rushmore]

What beatable hands can this EP caller have here?

Uh, 22, 33, KQ, or, uh...what?

This seems to me to be a perfect spot to check the turn and call the river. But seeing as you have decided to bet the turn (to be called by...what?), I don't see a value bet on the end.

The biggest question you can ask is what did this player call with on the flop? The 3 hands I listed above are the only 3 remotely likely beatable hands that I can find.

If this is true, you can't really see a value bet here, can you?

[skp]

IMO, checking the turn is the wrong play. This is because you cannot be put in a tough spot if you bet the turn. If you get raised, you fold. Simple. On the other hand, betting might get the other guy to fold a hand better than yours (i.e. 88, 87 etc.) or fold a draw with 6 outs i.e. KQ etc.

As for the river play, I would check here. The chances of being called by a 7 or a bigger pocket pair are way higher than the chances of getting called by King high or a tiny pocket pair. If the flop were AA4 and the turn was a 7, I could more easily accept the logic of a value bet on the river.

[Rushmore]

I've been down that thought process myself, and I guess ultimately, the question is about the type of player we're facing.

Not much chance of getting a better hand to fold on the turn, IMO, so I won't address the 88 or 8/7 scenarios.

As for the KQ, I don't see it as particularly likely, given the circumstances, so I don't consider it likely enough to try to protect against.

I realize the fact that in this position with pocket 5's, we're vulnerable and want to protect our hand. But opening the betting after he's checked in front of us might be exactly the worst way to do that. I know plenty of players who could make the play (check-raise bluffing at the turn here) if they read you for weak.

I dunno.

[skp]

I agree with portions of your post but not the part where you say "not much chance of getting a better hand to fold on the turn".

Look at it at the other way; suppose I posted this hand:

I limp UTG with 88 and button raises. Both blinds call. The flop is AA7. I check to the button who bets. Both Blinds fold. I call.

The turn is a 4.

I check. Button bets. What should I do?

I guarantee you that almost everyone will say that (a) I should have played the flop harder or (b) having played the flop the way I did, I should fold now on the turn when the preflop raiser bets again. After all, most of the time, the PFR is going to have an Ace or a pocket pair bigger than 8's.

So...I think a turn bet by the button with 55 is a must.