Adjusting to the normal but highly aggravating downswings

[Lazymeatball]

On Saturday evening I went to Foxwoods and played 3 hours of $2-4 and dropped $95 in three hours. I was very selective about hands I chose to play, as opposed to my opponents who were your typical B&M lowest limit Hold'em players playing Ax, Kx, even Tx, anything goes for some of these people. I didn't play many hands at all, just folding trash after trash after trash, raising AK and getting no piece of the flop, etc. I think I won at most 3-5 pots. Overall three hours is a short session, and I think I can chalk up most of that loss to bad luck.

On saturday night I played some $3-6 on Party, 2 tables at once, scouting out games with highest avg pots
I play primarily $3-6 on Party, looking for games with the highest avg pots, playing usually two tables.
I played for probably around 4 hours so that's about 500 hands at least. And it just felt like the same thing, playing very tight preflop, and then getting no piece of any flop. After a while I was getting frustrated and probably not playing my best, but I wouldn't say I was going on tilt and making wild raises or anything. I just couldn't get any help. By the end of the night my statistics according to Party were just ugly. Winning % around 5% (which can be good or bad) Showdown % around 55% which I hate, I usually get 70-80%. My flop seen % was around 24% which is either a sign of getting really bad cards or playing too tight preflop. I can't remember winning % if flop seen, but it was horrible.

Now I hop on Party today for some $3-6 and after 153 hands I'm down $175 after winning 5% hands, 42% of showdowns. Seeing 20% of flops, and winning 16% of flops seen.

I realize that I probably shouldn't take too much from those stats, but it's just frustrating to lose 55 bb in the last two days, even if it is part of the standard deviation.

The only thing thats different from when I was being fairly successful is that I read Lee Jones Winning Low-Limit Hold'em last week. As a result I've tightened my play preflop, and eliminated alot of my -EV chases. Before I was usually tight preflop, but once I was in a hand I would usually conitnue to bet and raise until I was sure I was beaten or I was sure a better hand wouldn't lay it down. I'm afraid I've misinterpreted Lee Jones advice and instead just become tight-weak.

My only other thought is that before when I was playing tight-overaggressive I could have been riding a lucky streak that would be exaggerated by my style of play. It just seems like before I would frequently win big pots, whereas now the few wins I have are moderate.

Any advice other than the usual 'stick with it,' 'this is normal standard deviation' and 'why don't you post some hands' ?

[jek187]

Hi Lazymeatball,

I can tell just by looking at your stats that you aren't running good. A flops seen to hands won ratio of 4.8 in your 500 hand session is awful. There's not much that can be done about it, but when the FS:HW starts climbing above 4, it's really hard to win. 3-4 is "normal" for me. If it drops below 3, that's usually a sign of a monster session.

So, (and I know you told me not to say this) it just looks like normal variance you're going through. Although, it usually makes me feel better to think of all the $$ I gained during these downswings according to TOP.

I play in the same 3/6 as you, say hi if you see me.

[Lazymeatball]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
Although, it usually makes me feel better to think of all the $$ I gained during these downswings according to TOP.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'll feel better when I get the check in the mail from David Sklansky.

But I guess that is the best way to think about it.
Anyway, I have seen you at my table a few times. My name on party is different then it is on here. However I don't think I will be saying hi anytime soon, do a search for my posts and you'll find out why.

[Mike Haven]

whatever you do, don't read phil hellmuth's new book

[Homer]

Showdown % around 55% which I hate.

I think this is close to optimal. If you typically win 70-80% of showdowns, then you are probably being bluffed out too often on the river, or have been on an incredible rush.

My flop seen % was around 24% which is either a sign of getting really bad cards or playing too tight preflop

You see too many flops. 24% is high even on a day in which you are being dealt fairly decent starting hands.

-- Homer

[dink]

Sorry Homer,

I don't see how you you could see many less hands, 24% is only 11% if you assume you see every flop when you are on the BB and that means giving up some good odds when you are on the small blind. (my requirements for seeing the flop for a half bet are much lower than they are for a full bet)

you must'nt play very many hands at all....

when lots of people are seeing the flop shouldn't you see more drawing flops 8,9 suited a,x suited etc?

Dink

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[Homer]

I don't see how you you could see many less hands, 24% is only 11% if you assume you see every flop when you are on the BB and that means giving up some good odds when you are on the small blind. (my requirements for seeing the flop for a half bet are much lower than they are for a full bet)

Well, you don't see every flop out of the BB and SB, so that 11% figure is too low. In HPFAP, they say you should see about 15% of flops outside the blinds, which is probably what 22% or 23% total corresponds to.

Most people play way too loose. I definitely do not play too tight.

-- Homer

[dink]

Why wouldn't you see every flop out of the big blind, if it cost you nothing?

Do you see more flops out of the small blind or do you just play it like any other early position?

dink

[ramjam]

As you acknowledge, if the SB/BB structure is 1/2 or 1/3, there are many hands you will not complete with in the SB even in an unraised pot.

Moreover, if the pot is raised (or, even more so, re-raised), there are (or should be!) occasions when you will not see the flop from the big blind.

[Homer]

Why wouldn't you see every flop out of the big blind, if it cost you nothing?

Of course I would see the flop if the pot was unraised, but often it is raised.

Do you see more flops out of the small blind or do you just play it like any other early position?

No, I see more flops out of the SB than other positions.

-- Homer