I play bad

Cancuk · #1 12-09-2005, 02:58 PM

I haven't played full ring in a long time, but I thought i'd try it out for a while and take a break from 6 max.

Villian 1 is way too overaggressive. No PT stats on hiim though, since I never play full ring.

Villian 2 is a TAG. Solid.

PP 3/6

Hero has AQo in MP.

Hero open raises, everyone folds, Villian 1 (V1) calls in SB, Villian 2 (V2) calls in BB.

Flop: (suits arn't important)

Q 10 x

V1 bets, V2 calls, Hero raises, V1 raises, V2 calls, Hero Caps, both call.

Turn: x

V1 bets, V2 calls, Hero calls.

River: A

V1 checks, V2 bets, Hero folds, V2 calls.

I thought that V1 could easily been overplaying a KQ, QJ, or something like that. But when V2 bet out, I was pretty sure I was done.

thoughts?

imported_smoove · #2 12-09-2005, 03:02 PM

[img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] No way can I fold this for one bet!

Cancuk · #3 12-09-2005, 03:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] No way can I fold this for one bet!

[/ QUOTE ]

Put V2 on a hand range.

Harv72b · #4 12-09-2005, 03:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Put V2 on a hand range.

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I was going to ask the same thing of you. By my math, you're looking at 13:1 to call the river donk with top two pair. Are you really 94% sure that V2 has KJ?

Cancuk · #5 12-09-2005, 03:19 PM

I can't see any other hand that he could possibly have. If he wasn't good, i'd call the river. What other hand could he have? AQ would have put money in on the flop, and theres really nothing else that i'm ahead of.

Harv72b · #6 12-09-2005, 07:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can't see any other hand that he could possibly have. If he wasn't good, i'd call the river. What other hand could he have? AQ would have put money in on the flop, and theres really nothing else that i'm ahead of.

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If he was that good, he would've raised the donk's flop bet with his KJ OESD + overcard, to try and get you out of the hand (possibly buying outs) and maybe get a free card if he does so. The AQ scenario laid out by another poster is also possible.

The point is, sometimes in limit poker you just have to pay off, because you can't possibly be that sure that your opponent has you beat. This is one of those times. With the pot odds that you're getting, combined with the very high likelihood that V1 will overcall with a worse hand, you have to be very nearly positive that V2 has KJ exactly in order to fold (assuming we can safely rule out AA or a flopped/turned set). V2 might have tried for a fancy play with KK here, chickened out after all the action you & V1 gave on the flop, and is now panic-betting the river, even--at least 6% of the time you're good, and that's good enough to make the call here.

imported_smoove · #7 12-09-2005, 03:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] No way can I fold this for one bet!

[/ QUOTE ]

Put V2 on a hand range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew you'd say that. Well, I think he woulda raised the flop with KQ or AQ. Possibly AT, AJ? I don't think he'd donk that river with just AJ.... I admit I'm confused and you're most likely behind. I just hate folding in this big pot for one bet on the river with your hand. Maybe I spew chips on the river.

#8 12-09-2005, 03:12 PM

This is a good sized pot and you have top 2 pair. How can you possibly fold this for one bet unless he showed you his cards? Villian 1 could have anything. KQ or QJ is a very good possibility if he is extremely overaggressive. If Villian 2 is in the hand, he could have something like AJ or AT. He might have you beat sometimes with KJ, but there are 12 BB in the pot. You need to win this 1 out of 13 times (1 out of 14 if Villian 1 calls) to make this profitable. Your top 2 pair will DEFINTELY win this pot more than this much more often. Even if you are only 1/2 right, this is an extremely profitable call.

Just look at it this way. Calling costs you at most 1 bet. Folding that hand could cost you 12 bets if you have the best hand.

Cancuk · #9 12-09-2005, 03:22 PM

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If Villian 2 is in the hand, he could have something like AJ or AT.

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How many good players call two cold with middle pair/gut shot straight draws?

imported_smoove · #10 12-09-2005, 03:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If Villian 2 is in the hand, he could have something like AJ or AT.

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How many good players call two cold with middle pair/gut shot straight draws?

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He also has his one overcard. But I think the main issue is the size of the pot on the river. Like the other posters said, are you 93-94% certain he wouldn't play AT or AJ like this?