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#1
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Playing from the blinds: ATo ($33)
I've been playing often enough to know who are the better players on the $33s now. Villain is a complete unknown. I actually went to PT to see if I had any data on him, and it was zilch.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx MP3 (t823) CO (t785) Button (t845) <font color="white"> 4s 5d </font> SB (t770) Hero (t700) UTG (t420) UTG+1 (t775) UTG+2 (t1267) MP1 (t845) MP2 (t770) Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, Button calls t15, SB completes, Hero checks. Flop: (t45) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t45</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t200</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t685 (All-In)</font>, Button calls t485. Turn: (t1415) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font> River: (t1415) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font> Final Pot: t1415 |
#2
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Re: Playing from the blinds: ATo ($33)
Well, he probably had two overcards and a flush draw, or a really high over pair, AA, KK. In all circumstances, it was not a great river for you. haha..
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#3
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Re: Playing from the blinds: ATo ($33)
In the words of Dan Harrington "your opponenet is telling you you're beat, you have no reason not to believe him" You haven't invested that much in it and the range of hands that villian plays like this all have you beat. You really only beat a bluff.
Do people at the 33's play K 10 like this? |
#4
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Re: Playing from the blinds: ATo ($33)
[ QUOTE ]
In the words of Dan Harrington "your opponenet is telling you you're beat, you have no reason not to believe him" You haven't invested that much in it and the range of hands that villian plays like this all have you beat. You really only beat a bluff. Do people at the 33's play K 10 like this? [/ QUOTE ] What? Dan Harrington? Put the villain on a range of hands based upon the information you can gather from the action PF to the Flop raise of 200 to the Hero's pot sized bet. |
#5
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Re: Playing from the blinds: ATo ($33)
[ QUOTE ]
In the words of Dan Harrington "your opponenet is telling you you're beat, you have no reason not to believe him" You haven't invested that much in it and the range of hands that villian plays like this all have you beat. You really only beat a bluff. Do people at the 33's play K 10 like this? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, they do. I like Scuba's line. |
#6
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Re: Playing from the blinds: ATo ($33)
Why 3-bet push the flop? I think you might be okay here in terms of getting your money in ahead, but if that's so I suspect this guy is going to try and give it to you shortly anyway. The only hand that I'm happy I pushed now against is probably 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
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#7
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Re: Playing from the blinds: ATo ($33)
Here is my thought process. And a quick teaser is that I squarely put him on KT here.
PF: Villain limps. Now sometimes they do this with JJ+, but it's not common. Postflop: The board is not one in which I think 2 pair is very common. The reraise: Villain wants to take me off the hand. He either has nothing or something. If I had to put percentages on what hands I think he has, it's the following: 5% JJ+ 5% 2 pair+ 30% Flush Draw 60% KT (or some Tx combo) I think a push is clearly in order here. Edit: I clearly need to think more, during the game, of additional hands. It's obviously possible that villain has KQ of spades, or 89 of spades, or just 89 as well. Furthermore, he could have T7 or T4. I am not giving him enough credit for these hands. Regardless, I think that KT (or JT or QT) play this hand the same way. Finally, one hand that would be interesting is A4 of spades. That being said, I think that hand flat calls. |
#8
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Re: Playing from the blinds: ATo ($33)
[ QUOTE ]
Here is my thought process. And a quick teaser is that I squarely put him on KT here. PF: Villain limps. Now sometimes they do this with JJ+, but it's not common. Postflop: The board is not one in which I think 2 pair is very common. The reraise: Villain wants to take me off the hand. He either has nothing or something. If I had to put percentages on what hands I think he has, it's the following: 5% JJ+ 5% 2 pair+ 30% Flush Draw 60% KT (or some Tx combo) I think a push is clearly in order here. [/ QUOTE ] Looks just about right to me, except I think a set is more common than two pair, and the 60% includes random crap like middle pair. You're probably way behind only 15% of the time against a random player. |
#9
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Re: Playing from the blinds: ATo ($33)
[ QUOTE ]
Looks just about right to me, except I think a set is more common than two pair, and the 60% includes random crap like middle pair. You're probably way behind only 15% of the time against a random player. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I was just thinking 10% is probably too light. |
#10
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Re: Playing from the blinds: ATo ($33)
[ QUOTE ]
I think a push is clearly in order here. [/ QUOTE ] You haven't finished the analysis. So let's say you put him on that range. He'll presumably call with 2 pair and JJ+ hands. Is he going to call with just a T? If not, will he put more money in with the T down the road if you let him? These last things are the issues I'm concerned with. I think you also give too little weight to hands that beat you here and too much to precisely T's. |
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