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#1
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QQ into a raise on flop
Villain is 18.2/7.58/1.88, not many hands, but he's probably not the average donk.
PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">8 folds</font>, BB calls. Flop: (4.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls. Turn: (4.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero ? |
#2
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Re: QQ into a raise on flop
Unless you suspect he suspects you are stealing UTG, this looks like a pretty easy fold to me.
-Jaran |
#3
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Re: QQ into a raise on flop
fold. He's tight and fairly aggressive. He didn't donk bet you, that c/r on the flop tells me either he isn't afraid you have Aces or your call told him you don't have aces and he thinks he has your pp beat.
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#4
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Re: QQ into a raise on flop
If this is a fold on the turn, would it be a fold on the flop? We're drawing to fourish outs, which we can't cover.
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#5
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Re: QQ into a raise on flop
[ QUOTE ]
If this is a fold on the turn, would it be a fold on the flop? We're drawing to fourish outs, which we can't cover. [/ QUOTE ] And herein probably lies one of my biggest leaks. I think it should be a fold on the flop, but all too often on hands like this posted here, people comment that there's only x% chance that villain actually has the ace, we're likely ahead, and shouldn't fold to what might be a standard check/raise from someone who missed the flop, or who has a flush draw. So I called. Then he bets again on the flop. Either he's still running his bluff, or he really does have the ace. If he had been a typical loose donk, it might have been worth calling, but he's something of a TAG, based on a small number of hands, so I folded. Just not worth it in a small pot. |
#6
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Re: QQ into a raise on flop
Fairly standard flop fold, right? TAGs don't call too many EP raises then checkraise ace high flops with small hands. What is he doing this without an ace?
If we're going to see a turn, why fold on a 6? That's as big a blank as it gets. |
#7
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Re: QQ into a raise on flop
It may be worth mentioning that coming from a TAG the flop may also be a semi-bluff with a flush draw. It would have to work just under half the time to be profitable, but if he sees us as TAG I he might consider it.
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#8
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Re: QQ into a raise on flop
I 3-bet the flop and consider folding to the cap--but I am very stupid.
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#9
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Re: QQ into a raise on flop
I just re-read this post and am going to add something. If we call down, it will take us 2.5 BBs form the flop raise to the river. If we re-raise, however, what hands will people here cap on the flop? I'll cap any set, any two pair (maybe not A4). I also probably cap AK and maybe, diepending on my read, I will cap AQ. I will not cap a flush or straight draw. He will either call our 3-bet and we re-evaluate on the turn, or he will raise and we can fold (I don't like it) or we call and fold UI on the turn. If he calls the re-raise, it will most likely be checked to us on the turn where we can check through and see the river for free. Flame away.
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#10
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Re: QQ into a raise on flop
If we 3-bet the flop, we will have to certainly call a cap if it comes and take a look at a turn card. The pot will be 12.5 SB on the turn. Assume that we have no implied odds at all.
Turn Fold % = 62 (Cost = .5 BB, what it costs to call the flop cap) EV turned flush draw (p = .17) = .239*8.25 - 1 = + .97 BB EV turned straight draw (p = .128) = .13*8.25 - 1 = + .07 BB EV turned SF draw (p = .043) = .283*8.25 - 1 = + 1.33 BB EV turned Queen (p = .043) = 0 The bad = - .5 BB*.62 = - .31 BB The good = .17*.97 BB + .128*.07 BB + .043*1.33 BB = + .23 BB Net = - .08 BB/hand So yeah we can't fold the flop UI. We are only making a small mistake if you don't include implied odds. The question is if we have to call the flop check/raise. Assume one bet of implied odds for everything we hit and 3 BB for a turned queen. We can't play for a turned straight draw as well (even with 1 BB of implied odds). The pot will be 8.5 SB when the turn is delt. The bad = -.5*.62 The good = .17*.73 + .043*1.05 + .043*3 Net = - .01 BB/hand So it looks like we can't call the flop check/raise unless we can find some extra implied odds in there. We would have to collect 2 BB if we complete the straight and get 1 BB on average when we make a flush. Either that or we have to get more should a queen hit. I think we can probably pull it off though. It is a close call either way though it now looks like we can swing a call here (I can't add sometimes [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]). |
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