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#1
12-07-2005, 03:15 AM
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$55 bubble hand.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx
BB (t1850) UTG (t2130) Button (t3800) Hero (t2220) Preflop: Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="red">UTG is allin for(t2130) </font> btn folds, <font color="blue"> Hero??? </font> Hero, Btn, and UTG have all been fairly agro stealing mostly from the BB guy who has been really passive. UTG seems to understand bubble play fairly well, which makes me think he is pushing any 2. Would this be a call basically for all my chips? Or should I wait if I think I can push trash and steal the blinds? 
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#3
12-07-2005, 04:11 PM
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Re: $55 bubble hand.
Am I the only person that does not think this is so clear cut? I mean why is he pushing? He wants people out of the hand. He could raise, and would probably raise TT+. So, in my opinion, he could be pushing with Ax or 22-99. This is not all game throry here. It is also poker. If he is pushing with Ax, you are at worst a 54% favorite. But maybe he is pushing A6, A5, ...
He could hold 88,99 which is the worst scenario. But if we think of EV on the hand, and then the resulting tournament, it might merit a call because doubling up with move you into great standing for 1st place. By folding here, you still might come 4th. But, by calling, you are either 4th or in great position for 1st. If this hand was 88, I would call for sure! 77 is tough though. It is really borderline for me. Basically, it comes down to your reads. What is the probability he is doing this with 88,99? What is the probability it is A8-AK or KQ? What is the probability it is A2-A6? Maybe it is bad strategy, but I play for 1st before I play for 3rd and it has increased my ROI compared to how I used to play. I am not saying by any means that I would definately make this call. But I am not laying it down as easily as everyone else here.
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#5
12-07-2005, 04:21 PM
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Re: $55 bubble hand.
I've had 2000 chips and 4th has 100 and I've come 4th. But I am still happy with my move in that situation. I'm not trying to move up the ladder. I want to win, and if the big chip stack wants to steal my chips, and I have the right cards, I'm making my move for first before I am in the money.
I have a lot of first places, or out of the money, and maybe there is higher variance, but my ROI has improved since I implemented this strategy. When you win a hand like that, it really changes the game. People get scared because they know you will call. If I am in this position and I win that hand, I am usually 80%+ to take 1st. I'm not going to lie, I play $22s, not $55s and perhaps that is why I am wrong here.
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#6
12-07-2005, 04:23 PM
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Re: $55 bubble hand.
[ QUOTE ]
I have a lot of first places, or out of the money, and maybe there is higher variance, but my ROI has improved since I implemented this strategy. When you win a hand like that, it really changes the game. People get scared because they know you will call. If I am in this position and I win that hand, I am usually 80%+ to take 1st. [/ QUOTE ] This whole paragraph is crap, but the last sentence especially is just laughable. Think about it for a bit and you'll understand why.
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#7
12-07-2005, 04:25 PM
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Re: $55 bubble hand.
i agree you should play for first, NO DOUBT! but ignoring all of the stack sizes is a big mistake, IMO. if you truly had 2000 chips when the short stack was 100 and busted to the big stack, i think that is just plain silly.
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#9
12-07-2005, 04:21 PM
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Re: $55 bubble hand.
calling on bubble with mid PP is genius compared to the other crap that happens on the 55s.
I think people over estimate the average 55er... MY BAD, didnt see the blinds were 100/200. ya, i would fold this as well...but i stand by my statement that we overestimate the skill of the average 55er [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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