My last "Bet This River?" post

#1 12-02-2005, 08:33 PM

This type of situation on the river is never quite clear for me. Do I bet, with that flush card hitting on the river, after 3 opponents have called me all the way?

I'm leaning toward the bet but RRs make me gag.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero raises, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, CO calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, CO calls, UTG calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls.

River: (12.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero?

#2 12-02-2005, 08:40 PM

imo you have to bet here, i dont think its that close either

MrWookie47 · #3 12-02-2005, 09:53 PM

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imo you have to bet here, i dont think its that close either

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Agreed. Easy, easy bet. You can't always fear the flush.

#4 12-02-2005, 10:07 PM

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imo you have to bet here, i dont think its that close either

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Agreed. Easy, easy bet. You can't always fear the flush.

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Wookie, I really respect your posts alot, but on this one I have to disagree. You've got 3 other players that have been calling down. I think at least one of them has been calling with a FD. Against one or two players I'd agree with you, but 3? There's going to be flush here much more often than not.

Greg J · #5 12-02-2005, 10:24 PM

I also think it's a bet, but unlike ES I do think it's close. There is a good chance that someone has been drawing to the flush -- this is true. However, the two checks to you make this somewhat less likely (I find a lot of more passive players donk a made flush here). I'm not saying someone does NOT have the flush here, but they will not have it often enough to make betting here profitable. I'm pretty confident in saying that.

That being said, if you did not improve on the turn to 2 pair, this is an easy check.

BTW: it's GOOD to question authority here! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

#6 12-03-2005, 01:32 AM

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I also think it's a bet, but unlike ES I do think it's close. There is a good chance that someone has been drawing to the flush -- this is true. However, the two checks to you make this somewhat less likely (I find a lot of more passive players donk a made flush here).

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Open question, using the top quote as starting point:

1.) what's the plan if one of the first two passives does bet into us? I agree that that's usually the play when they hit the river flush, b/c they're afraid you'll just check it through

2.) if we bet and get raised, we're calling right? does it matter where the raise comes from (i.e. if we're raised or check/raised)

Shillx · #7 12-02-2005, 10:32 PM

How often will someone have a flush draw here? I have no idea, but it will be some good % of the time. The thing is that a flush could be out there >>50% of the time and betting still might be correct.

The people who are calling down will generally have one of the following...a king, queen, jack, ten, nine or a flush draw (sometimes even less). If we collect 2 bets everytime a flush draw isn't out there, we would breakeven if there was a flush 67% of the time (assuming you fold to a raise).

The other consideration is that we aren't closing the action. So even if we check, we will sometimes be faced with a bet from the guy who is last to act. While it might not sound very important, it is a key aspect to this hand. It would be better to check if you could turn um up and see who wins.

Edit - To clarify...this spot isn't great by any means. But it is one of those ~ .2-.5 BB type value bets that we need to find imo.

Greg J · #8 12-02-2005, 10:39 PM

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The thing is that a flush could be out there >>50% of the time and betting still might be correct.

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This is both counterintuitive and totally true.

#9 12-02-2005, 10:58 PM

I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] your work Brad but...

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If we collect 2 bets everytime a flush draw isn't out there, we would breakeven if there was a flush 67% of the time (assuming you fold to a raise).

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I think all of these bolded points are up for debate here.

1. The flush % is highly debatable. It could be higher, it could be lower. Against 3+ opponents, I'm more likely to say higher rather than lower.

2. Claiming to get 2 BB on this river every time from worse hands I think is stretching it quite a bit. I think 1 - 1.5 would be more realistic.

3. How many people here can honestly say they would fold to the raise? Of those people who do fold every time, how many times do you think you're folding the best hand?

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But it is one of those ~ (.2)-.5 BB type value bets that we need to find imo.

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FYP. Better? Flame away.

#10 12-03-2005, 12:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The people who are calling down will generally have one of the following...a king, queen, jack, ten, nine or a flush draw (sometimes even less). If we collect 2 bets everytime a flush draw isn't out there, we would breakeven if there was a flush 67% of the time (assuming you fold to a raise).

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how many of these types do you think will call a river bet? i have a hard time seeing anyone with less than two pair doing so. for all of you advocating a bet, how many callers do you think you get? I'm wordering how much that affects the value of the bet.

In my experience, I can't recall a time when 3 others were calling down in this situation (raised pf, two flush cards on the flop) where one of them didn't show a flush. Although I will say that having the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on board does cut this down a bit.