Manny for Abreu

[Sluss]

Linko

Suposedly the Red Sox love the deal and the Phillies are the ones who seem to have cold feet.

I really feel like Manny would be an upgrade. He would kill the ball in CBP and even though he is pretty bad in the field, really so is Abreu. I think he could survive in right field. Rowand would be tired by the end of the game, but hey that's why they got him.

[kenberman]

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I really feel like Manny would be an upgrade.

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I doubt anybody would argue that.

prevailing wisdom in Boston was that we would be lucky to get .50 on the $1 (talent wise) in any Manny deal. Manny is a historically great hitter - stands w/ Bonds at the top of the list of this generations greatest. he's average at best in all other baseball skills.

he's also insane, and makes too much money. this deal would give the Sox about $.80 on the dollar, which is more than acceptable I think.

[Sluss]

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I doubt anybody would argue that.

prevailing wisdom in Boston was that we would be lucky to get .50 on the $1 (talent wise) in any Manny deal. Manny is a historically great hitter - stands w/ Bonds at the top of the list of this generations greatest. he's average at best in all other baseball skills.

he's also insane, and makes too much money. this deal would give the Sox about $.80 on the dollar, which is more than acceptable I think.

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Abreu is also half insane, not quite as insane, but closer than most people think. Abreu would be a monster in Fenway. He could hit balls off of the Green Monster like Boggs and could hit .350 easy.

In some ways this trade might make too much sense. The biggest problem is that the Phillies need to make a few more moves (closer and starting pitcher) and don't want to blow their whole payroll on Manny. If the Red Sox made it up I think that it could happen.

[sublime]

he's also insane, and makes too much money.

compare his antics to some of the other stuff in red sox history and you will see he is not as whacky as some think. what, he asks for time off occasionly because his hammys 'may' hurt? hes also very durable. he asks to be traded a lot? who cares.

also, hes not overpaid anymore. inflation/the marketplace have caught up with his deal.

[kenberman]

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also, hes not overpaid anymore. inflation/the marketplace have caught up with his deal.

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you think so? I can't think of any deals w/ an AAV of $19m that have been signed recently. there are now a # of $13-$15m guys, but $19M?

maybe I'm wrong.

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hes also very durable.

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this is a good point, which most people miss. the guys has played a ton of games in the field the last 3 years - the most on the team maybe?

[cdxx]

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this is a good point, which most people miss. the guys has played a ton of games in the field the last 3 years - the most on the team maybe?

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by virtue of nixon, kapler, payton, millar splitting the duties in right field, and damon being hurt a couple of times in CF. varitek sits every fifth day. so mueller at 3b is the only one who can challenge manny, but he's been benched a bunch of times. i guess you are right.

[CCx]

i'd buy my season tickets back tomorrow

abreu for manny
burrell for starter
danys baez

yup... 1-800-phillies, sign me up

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burrell for starter


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Man, Richie Hebner sure did do some good things for Burrell when he changed his approach a few years ago, didn't he?

[sublime]

you think so? I can't think of any deals w/ an AAV of $19m that have been signed recently. there are now a # of $13-$15m guys, but $19M?

well, lets look at the most recent, paul konerko.

if we use the past 3 seasons to project next seasons production using the baseball prospectus stat BRAR (batting runs above replacement) in a 3/2/1 weighting system (i am hijacking this from a poster on SOSH EricVan) then we get this:

manny:

62 x 3
62 x 2
73 x 1

konerko

48 x 3
40 x 2
4 x 1

manny comes out to project to about 63 RAR and konerko comes out to equal 38. of course some will say that, hey thats not fair konerko had a horrible year in 03, while i will say, yeah manny didnt!

manny cashes in at 3.30 runs per million

konerko cashes in at 2.92 per million spent

lets be very optimistic for konerko and eliminate 2003 (which i dont see a good reason to, but will for humor purposes)

konerko then clocks in at 44.8 expected runs which is 3.44 runs per million, still barely more cost efficient than ramirez.

lets now do abreu

his BRAR

54 x 3
73 x 2
60 x 1

projects to produce about 61 runs above replacement level, which equates to 4.17 runs per million.

you can now easily see why the red sox would do this deal, and philly would laugh at it.

[imported_The Vibesman]

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you think so? I can't think of any deals w/ an AAV of $19m that have been signed recently. there are now a # of $13-$15m guys, but $19M?

well, lets look at the most recent, paul konerko.


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I'm not gonna crunch the numbers, but if you also look at the contract Hideki Matsui got this offseason, it's hard to make a case that Manny is grossly overpaid.