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#1
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Bad bluff?
Villain is TA - around 15/4/4 the hands I have on him.
I have seen him raise with AA & KK, and coldcall a raise with 33 (stacked a fish when he hit set). Villain probably sees me as TA too - he has seen me raise KK. PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Button ($322.05) Hero ($128.20) BB ($19.05) UTG ($62.15) MP ($11.85) Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $3</font>, Button calls $3, Hero calls $2.50, BB calls $2. Flop: ($12) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> Hero checks, BB checks, MP checks, Button checks. Turn: ($12) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> Hero checks, BB checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $6</font>, Hero calls $6, BB folds, MP folds. River: ($24) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font> Good move, or spewing? |
#2
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Re: Bad bluff?
I don't like much of this at all. Regarding your question, I don't think you have a llot of fold equity on the river; he'll feel compelled to call most marginal hands.
I don't like the PF cold call at all. You're OOP with a marginal hand. I fold this spot against this opponent every time, unless I'm planning a steal. On the flop your opponent seems to have missed. He is giving you an opportunity to represent a whiffed flop checkraise. You can capitalize on this by potting the turn, giving him an opportunity to fold. If you're going to run a bluff, the turn is the time to do it. Or even the flop. If you lead the flop for a real bet, the opponent usually folds if he missed. And he usually missed. |
#3
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Re: Bad bluff?
If you think a bluff is going to take it down, then make it full pot. You look like you are trying to throw out a blocking bet, which villain will call with any decent holding.
If you wanted to steal the pot, a full pot c/r on the turn probably does it. If called you are still drawing to the flush. If re-raised you can lay it down. Most TAGs over-respect a turn check-raise so that is where you should make a move. |
#4
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Re: Bad bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
If you think a bluff is going to take it down, then make it full pot. [/ QUOTE ] Although this looks like a check fold to me without a good read. |
#5
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Re: Bad bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
If you think a bluff is going to take it down, then make it full pot. You look like you are trying to throw out a blocking bet, which villain will call with any decent holding. If you wanted to steal the pot, a full pot c/r on the turn probably does it. If called you are still drawing to the flush. If re-raised you can lay it down. Most TAGs over-respect a turn check-raise so that is where you should make a move. [/ QUOTE ] I usually CR the turn if I want to take it down, but I thought I'd give it a try on the river instead. Villain definately doesn't hold a king. Almost 100% it's another broadway, or 22-99. I think I can get him to fold 22-66 or a broadway on a blank river - am I overestimating the succes rate? |
#6
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Re: Bad bluff?
I don't understand how anyone can consider check-raising the turn since the opponent is in position but chose to check the flop, and a complete brick fell on the turn. An attempt to check-raise the turn here will almost certianly fail.
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#7
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Re: Bad bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand how anyone can consider check-raising the turn since the opponent is in position but chose to check the flop, and a complete brick fell on the turn. An attempt to check-raise the turn here will almost certianly fail. [/ QUOTE ] The turn was not a complete brick as it gives hero the nut flush draw. Check-raising the turn makes it look like you got cute with your trip 5's or FH. Also, you still have outs and if a diamond hits the river your flush is concealed. Perhaps the bets question is this: Assume you have to bluff to win this pot, where do you make your stand? |
#8
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Re: Bad bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
The turn was not a complete brick [/ QUOTE ] I meant it was a brick from the opponent's persepctive. Sure, he might also have just made a flush draw, but the odds are really against it. Almost every time Hero checks this turn, the opponent will check behind. |
#9
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Re: Bad bluff?
Then we are given a free card, which is good.
Ojo_Rojo |
#10
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Re: Bad bluff?
I agree with the others. A check-raise or lead bluff on the turn is more effective, and comes with "At Least a 7-out Discount" - "Great Value!!".
Ojo_Rojo |
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