My first hand in forever - JJ

[Jake (The Snake)]

I've played probably about 1000 hands of poker since August and so I have not had any hands to post. I plan on posting quite a bit in the SSHUSH forum over the next two months as I try to learn 6max more.

Anyway, villain just joined the table a few hands ago so I am readless.

Preflop (5 handed):

UTG folds, CO raises, Button folds, I 3-bet JhJs from the SB, BB folds, CO caps.

Flop (9sb): Qh 2h 6c

Plan?


Edit: fixed action

[admiralfluff]

what happened to CO?

[ArturiusX]

Check-raise the flop, peel to a 3-bet, keep betting until agro is shown.

[Jake (The Snake)]

That's what I thought at first too, and it may still be right, but...

Doesn't checkraising this flop make it incredibly easy for villain to play the rest of the hand? If he has a pocket pair lower than us, he's probably folding either the flop or turn. If he has a bigger pocket pair, now he has a bunch of options to extract more value from Hero and we have put in 2sb on the flop already when we are behind. If he has a queen, there's no way he's folding. If he has AK, now it's relatively easy for him to play perfectly for the rest of the hand. Maybe I'm just overthinking this one...

[admiralfluff]

I think art's line is the standard. Another thing you could consider would be to c/c the flop and c/r a safe turn, which might be a line better suited to the smaller games.

[Ed Miller]

[ QUOTE ]
If he has a pocket pair lower than us, he's probably folding either the flop or turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two points:

1. If that were really true, then over time you could rob the guy blind by check-raising like every flop against him.

2. It's not really true.

[Jake (The Snake)]

Yeah, I think one of my problems is giving my opponents too much credit or falling into the trap of thinking how I would play if I were villain.

Anyway, I gave the hand some more thought from a mathematical perspective. I probably screwed it up, so watch for errors and bad logic...

I'll assume villain bets the flop 100% of the time and calls a c/r 100% of the time for simplicity. I estimate I have about 55% equity in the hand and am ahead on the flop about 62% of the time. If anybody thinks these numbers are unreasonable, let me know.

I'm just going to examine the EV of flop bets and not how the two plays might relate to turn/river action. Obviously what happens on future streets does matter, but my previous post leads me to the conclusion that, if anything, a c/r will be harder to play on the turn and river.

Check/call: (.55)-(.45)= +.10

Check/raise:

(.55)(2)= +1.10
(.25)(-2)= -.5
(.20)(-3) for AA and KK 3-betting = -.6

= 0

So I guess it's pretty close (unless I screwed up) and comes down to the assumptions and how the turn and river are affected.

Check-calling is profitable for WA/WB situations, but here you're either way behind or slightly ahead. Since he might have 6 outs to beat you, I think flop aggression is important here.

[climber]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he has a pocket pair lower than us, he's probably folding either the flop or turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

One point:

1. That's not true.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

so true...and I love them for it

[ArturiusX]

Another line if he's super agro, is the check/call to a showdown, only worth it if he pays off with anything. This is a good line vs a player capable of 3-beting with overcards.