Not spewing with second best hands...

krishanleong · #1 11-16-2005, 10:21 AM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG caps, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, SB calls, UTG 3-bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (14 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 17 BB

What do we think? Villian is 50/23/1.8/42 over 355 hands.

Krishan

Spicymoose · #2 11-16-2005, 10:26 AM

I think you really need to raise this turn. SB seems like he might have an overcard or two to your pair, so why let him keep his outs in a pretty big pot? Also, UTG could easily have 99-JJ, almost as often as AA or KK. Even if you are beat slightly more than you are ahead of UTG, I would rather have SB out. You two can divy up his equity, rather then use him as a buffer for your possible equity deficiency against UTG.

If SB has a weighted 4.5 outs, he basically has a 1 BB in equity of the pot. Since you and UTG are at least close in terms of equity (I think he might have slightly more than you with his range, as AA and KK seem to have slightly more combos then 99-JJ just because of frequency of playing as he is), you basically divy up his 1 BB. That means you get an instant return of .5 BB on your raise, along with whatever else happens.

stoxtrader · #3 11-16-2005, 10:36 AM

I don't love the flop raise.

krishanleong · #4 11-16-2005, 10:39 AM

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I don't love the flop raise.

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Wait and raise the turn?

Krishan

ghostface · #5 11-16-2005, 11:14 AM

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I don't love the flop raise.

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Wait and raise the turn?

Krishan

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SB has odds to draw to just about anything when its 2 bets to him.

krishanleong · #6 11-16-2005, 11:20 AM

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I don't love the flop raise.

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Wait and raise the turn?

Krishan

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SB has odds to draw to just about anything when its 2 bets to him.

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Not really. It's a paired board so a 4-5 outers are unlikely. His most likely hands are a pair or a hand with a single overcard.

I still think a turn raise might be fine. I'm not use to pots that are very large anymore and I think I failed to recognize this one.

Krishan

stoxtrader · #7 11-16-2005, 12:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
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I don't love the flop raise.

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Wait and raise the turn?

Krishan

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no. a perfect scenario for you is if 1 bet goes in from both players on each street. two bets would be great, but the risk of 3 bets on any street is bad, and sacrifices "good" (action you do want) action on later streets, while promoting "bad" (action you dont want) action on later streets

a raise that folds out a K or A or gutshot is good, but not worht the cost until the pot gets pretty darn large, because while 4 outers have odds to draw, you have a redraw, and a cost of raising in terms of getting 3 bet when behind.

krishanleong · #8 11-16-2005, 03:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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I don't love the flop raise.

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Wait and raise the turn?

Krishan

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no. a perfect scenario for you is if 1 bet goes in from both players on each street. two bets would be great, but the risk of 3 bets on any street is bad, and sacrifices "good" (action you do want) action on later streets, while promoting "bad" (action you dont want) action on later streets

a raise that folds out a K or A or gutshot is good, but not worht the cost until the pot gets pretty darn large, because while 4 outers have odds to draw, you have a redraw, and a cost of raising in terms of getting 3 bet when behind.

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Wow, talk about not spewing with a second best hand. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Players at this limit will still 3-bet a second best hand against me here on the flop.

For those of you advocating waiting till turn, what do you do when 3-bet? Call down I presume?

Krishan

mmcd · #9 11-16-2005, 06:17 PM

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but the risk of 3 bets on any street is bad,

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I don't think so against a 50/23/2 except on the river.

Many worse hands are more than willing to put 3 flop bets in. And many worse hands will put in 1 raise on the turn and call down a 3 bet.

As far as the general idea of not spewing with second best hands, the most important thing to consider is how much your opponent will spew with second best hands. Against a LAG, I have no problem playing a big pot here as long as he has no problem playing a big pot with a hand worse than QQ.

I've certainly dragged some bigger pots with top pair ok kicker against LAGs holding anything from underpairs to overcards to no pair no draw than I have against other more T/P players in top 2 on set situations. It just depends on how hard your opponent is willing to push with worse hands.

Wynton · #10 11-16-2005, 10:51 AM

As usual, I'm not sure how to interpret the stats. You said villian is 50/23/1.8/42 over 355 hands. Does this mean that he is particularly prone to react to post-flop raises with even more aggression?

If you think that raising the flop (or the turn) will get you into a betting war with the villain, then that seems like a pretty decent spot. But if the villain might react to post-flop raises by slowing down, then calling looks better to me, as you bring sb along too.