Low end of a OESD on the flop - is it correct to bet here?

Basically is the bet on the flop the right play here given the small pot? Is this a situation where you want to semi bluff with the idea of:
a) winning the pot straight away, or
b) making any marginal hands fold, or
b) getting a free card on the turn.

Would it be better to check raise?
Or would it be better to check and wait for the turn?
If the hand had been raised before the flop and the pot was larger would it be correct to now make the semi bluff bet be a better play?

PokerRoom 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP1 posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

[POKhER]

Take a free card, your bet has no value, You don't have a made hand.

[Koss]

[ QUOTE ]
Take a free card, your bet has no value, You don't have a made hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's value if he can get 3 or more calls. It also has the potential to win the pot outright in some cases, and buy him the button so he can take a free river.

[POKhER]

[ QUOTE ]
Take a free card, your bet has no value, You don't have a made hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

As i say above(1st reply page 1) i check.

Why hasn't anyone considered a guy betting after us and then we get to raise pushing out EDGE that we know we have.

i.e. Button bets, Few callers... RAISE IT UP!

POKhER
ps. Wow me and miles made the same decision... that never happens. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[HouseCalls]

I like your bet here.
You may be ahead (SB only put in 1/2 bet; others just checked preflop). If you are behind (most likely to pair of Q or K) you still have 9.5 outs (8 OESD; 1.5 BDFD) to a winner. Given 9.5 outs you are 3.8:1 to catch a winner. With 5 SB in the pot this bet is for value.

I do have a question for the vetrans here. Is this a true semi-bluff? I thought that meant you had to have some sort of a hand say A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] here where you have bottom pair plus a flush draw.

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
I like your bet here.
You may be ahead (SB only put in 1/2 bet; others just checked preflop). If you are behind (most likely to pair of Q or K) you still have 9.5 outs (8 OESD; 1.5 BDFD) to a winner. Given 9.5 outs you are 3.8:1 to catch a winner. With 5 SB in the pot this bet is for value.

I do have a question for the vetrans here. Is this a true semi-bluff? I thought that meant you had to have some sort of a hand say A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] here where you have bottom pair plus a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know where you got the ideas that I bolded, but they're quite wrong. First of all, a 9.5 out draw is about 1.7:1 to hit by the river, not 3.8. Hero won't be folding this on the turn, so we can use his flop to river equity. Secondly, in determining whether or not to CALL with a draw, you need to consider pot size. When considering whether or not to BET or even raise with a draw for value, pot size is (mostly) irrelevant. It's the number of opponents that matters. Hero's draw will come in between 35 and 40% of the time, so as long as he's putting in less than that share of the money as bets go into the pot, he's profiting. Thus, hero needs to have 2 or more callers, regardless of the pot size. In a field this large, you typically can bet and expect to get that.

Second of all, a semibluff is a bet or raise with any hand that you don't think is currently best, but that may still win by either improving to the best hand, or by folding your opponent. Since the folding equity of a semibluff in a field of 4 opponents is near zero, this isn't a semibluff because the second condition isn't met. A bet from a hand like Ad5d with bottom pair may or may not be a semibluff. It depends on how likely you think it is that you have the best hand. It may just be a value bet.

[HouseCalls]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like your bet here.
You may be ahead (SB only put in 1/2 bet; others just checked preflop). If you are behind (most likely to pair of Q or K) you still have 9.5 outs (8 OESD; 1.5 BDFD) to a winner. Given 9.5 outs you are 3.8:1 to catch a winner. With 5 SB in the pot this bet is for value.

I do have a question for the vetrans here. Is this a true semi-bluff? I thought that meant you had to have some sort of a hand say A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] here where you have bottom pair plus a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know where you got the ideas that I bolded, but they're quite wrong. First of all, a 9.5 out draw is about 1.7:1 to hit by the river, not 3.8. Hero won't be folding this on the turn, so we can use his flop to river equity. Secondly, in determining whether or not to CALL with a draw, you need to consider pot size. When considering whether or not to BET or even raise with a draw for value, pot size is (mostly) irrelevant. It's the number of opponents that matters. Hero's draw will come in between 35 and 40% of the time, so as long as he's putting in less than that share of the money as bets go into the pot, he's profiting. Thus, hero needs to have 2 or more callers, regardless of the pot size. In a field this large, you typically can bet and expect to get that.

Second of all, a semibluff is a bet or raise with any hand that you don't think is currently best, but that may still win by either improving to the best hand, or by folding your opponent. Since the folding equity of a semibluff in a field of 4 opponents is near zero, this isn't a semibluff because the second condition isn't met. A bet from a hand like Ad5d with bottom pair may or may not be a semibluff. It depends on how likely you think it is that you have the best hand. It may just be a value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok Wookie - now I'm confused (which I guess is the whole point of this so see if you can straighten me out).

9.5 outs are 3.8 to win: I thought this came from SSH (table page 30) which gives break even odds for the number of outs. Aren't these odds your chance to hit your hand based on the number of outs you have (ie for 4 outs the break even odds are 10.5:1; doesn't that mean you will complete your hand 1 out of 10.5 times)? Now I know these are for one card to come not two but I simplified it to make the math easier.
It seems that you are calculating the bet based on pot equity - ie if your pot equity is greater than 1/number of callers then you bet. Is that true?
And last thanks for the clarification on the semi-bluff.

If nothing else I think this means I'm progressing from "not knowing I suck" to "misapplying what I learned"

Thanks for the help [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[MrWookie47]

There are three different kinds of pot odd with which you should familiarize yourself, the pot odds from flop to turn, those from turn to river, and those from flop to river. The 3.8:1 you cite is the chance you hit on the turn. If you have a strong draw (usually 8 outs or better) that you might consider betting or raising for value if the field is large enough, you should take a look at the flop to river odds. Those are the odds that you hit your hand at any point. Actually, I have a different meands of estimating our equity. Since we'll assume that we're drawing to the nuts (a good approximation), our equity on the flop can be estimated by multiplying the number of outs we have by 4. 9.5 outs = 38%. That's a hair high, but it's good enough, and easy to work out at game time. When you get to the turn and you miss, your equity gets cut roughly in half - you multply your outs by 2, for 19%. That's actually a hair low, IIRC, but it's again good enough, typically.

Now, you don't want to go overboard with this. You'll primarily want to be looking at your flop to turn or turn to river odds (I regard them as pretty much equal rather than memorizing two lists, and then remembering which list has longer odds for borderline decisions) when you're dealing with weaker draws. In those cases, you may be offered improper odds on the turn in small pots, so you'll only want to peel on the flop if you're getting proper odds for a single street.

Actually, you are even a little wrong in your concept of odds. 10.5:1 doesn't mean you complete your hand one time in 10.5. It means that 10.5 times you don't complete your hand for every time you do, meaning you hit your hand one time in 11.5.

[HouseCalls]

Thanks for your help. One more question though. I'm a little confused by one thing in your original post. You said for 9.5 outs the odds were not 3.8:1 but 1.7:1. Yet in your last post you said that 3.8 was the odds for making the hand on the turn. How can the odds of making the hand on the turn and river be less than making the hand on the river alone? (I hate math [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img])

[Koss]

First off, you don't have the "low end" of the OESD. You have the only OESD. Any time JT connects to make a straight it will be the nuts. Plus you have a backdoor flush draw. Your bet is both for a semi-bluff and for value. Your bet is fine. Now you have the option of taking a free turn card, which you probably should.