Big draw facing raise and reraise on flop: insta call or not?

#1 11-11-2005, 05:09 PM

No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 max, 6 handed)

saw flop/fold preflop
Hero ($95)
Button ($200)
SB ($100)
BB ($175)
UTG ($380)
MP ($115)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG and MP call.
Hero call.
 Button folds
SB raises to $4
BB, UTG, MP and Hero call $3.

Flop: ($20) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets $5
 BB folds
UTG calls $5.
MP raises to $15
Hero calls 15.
SB calls 10.
UTG raises to $100
 MP folds
Hero?
SB still to play after me.

beavens · #2 11-11-2005, 05:12 PM

you have proper odds to call, right?

i'm pretty weak when it comes to calculating those on the spot.

#3 11-11-2005, 05:44 PM

I agree, odds are hard to calculate under pressure sometimes. 13 outs with two cards to come....about 50% to make your straight or flush. Seems like the right call as long as your straight or flush is higher than his, you are just jack high. Is this a bluff? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

#4 11-11-2005, 05:52 PM

Fold. Keep in mind you'd be CALLING a push, not betting one. You'd only have a cinch hand if you completed your straight, which isn't even a real OESD, you either need an 8, or runner-runner. Also, your flush would be J high, with AKQ of diamonds still live.

elus2 · #5 11-11-2005, 06:11 PM

villain's hand is a set or two pair > 95% of the time. your typical opponents do not call a bet then put in a 3rd raise after a player on their left has raised the original bettor with a flush draw. while it may happen, i have not seen it. given an average pot equity of 35% it is slightly +ev.

#6 11-12-2005, 01:09 AM

Summary of opinions:
nietzrenor FOLD
BigBiceps FOLD
Scorch FOLD
ajmargarine FOLD
GGrey FOLD
elus2 CALL ALL IN
machinehead CALL ALL IN
beavens CALL ALL IN
z-plasty CALL ALL IN
5 fold-4 call
Shows how complex is the situation

I called. It was a difficult call, one of those situations i don't like to face.

On one hand, it looks like i have 12 outs and if i put UTG on a set, it's a mandatory call.
I thought UTG had a set which he would have played oddly and SB (preflop raiser) could have had something like AK (dead money) or AAA slowplayed as hell (UTG dead money then). In both case, one of them have almost no outs. In the set vs set case, SB will call, making my odds really good. If SB has AK, then he's unlikely to call but if he does (he's not a very good player), same thing, excellent odds for me.

But the ace let the possibility for someone to have a combo like top pair + flush draw or belly buster + flush draw, which had me extremely worried.

If someone had a higher flush draw (Ad8d and KdQd being highly possible) then it would be a mandatory laydown. The way i played my hand (quite passively), i did nothing to make a higher flush draw fold.

So if someone has a higher flush draw, it's a very bad call. If i'm against two sets, it's a very good call. It there's one set and SB folds, it's slightly +EV call.

All in all, i almost laid it down but, stats of oppoentns being:
SB (preflop raiser) 45/20/3.5
UTG (all in on flop) 55/10/1 (quite passive, have to have something to go all in)
i thought there was an extra chance one of them was doing something stupid and i didn't wanted to fold my big draw to finally see a donk show a semi trash hand.

SB had a set of sevens (now you see why i could't eliminate UTG having a very oddly played set)
UTG had KdQd
UTG hits flush and takes down a hefty pot

now; should i have played it differently before UTG shoves? First time it comes to me, what sould i have done? Raise or fold?
If i re-raise, i'm not going to make other flush draws fold (Ad8d and KdQd will stay) BUT i'll make sure that no hands that i beat will call, which is not something i'm seeking. After the hand, i thought that just calling could have let a lesser hand add money to the pot with almost no chance to win (if SB has AK, the the third time it comes to him the pot is really big and that can make him call, more than if i shove directly). If there was a hand that would have me crushed, calling/raising makes almost no difference, SB would have folded weak hands, making the pots smaller for the few times i woulshave won with my belly buster.

#7 11-11-2005, 05:31 PM

ALLLLLL-INNNN

elus2 · #8 11-11-2005, 05:33 PM

156 in pot, 76 to call, equity ~35%. call.

ajmargarine · #9 11-11-2005, 05:43 PM

Fold. UTG's drawing to a bigger flush Ad8d and you are crushed.

elus2 · #10 11-11-2005, 06:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. UTG's drawing to a bigger flush Ad8d and you are crushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you jopkin?