($33): Tough bubble decision with a shorty?

[xJMPx]

Maybe this isn't a tough decision, but I thought it was. Especially given my read that the BB will call with any Kx.

Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
BB: ( $2502 )
CO: ( $438 )
Button: ( $4030 )
Hero: ( $1030 )
Trny:17257334 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 9c Ah ]
CO folds.
Button folds.
Hero ????

If BB is that loose, and with shorty being committed in the BB next hand, I think I fold this. Without shorty getting hit (or being so short) though, it's an easy push.

[kevkev60614]

Given your read that he calls with any A, any K, any PP, I think this is a push. If shortie doubles once, you're not a lock for third. If you double here, you stand a fair shot at first.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
Given your read that he calls with any A, any K, any PP, I think this is a push. If shortie doubles once, you're not a lock for third. If you double here, you stand a fair shot at first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Christ, you show a complete lack of understanding of ICM at all times. What the heck is your advice about? Seriously.

[Nick-Zack]

I push this every time. A9 plays good against a random hand and even with your read I think that the BB will realize that the shortie is going bust quick and will fold a K.

[bennies]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Given your read that he calls with any A, any K, any PP, I think this is a push. If shortie doubles once, you're not a lock for third. If you double here, you stand a fair shot at first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Christ, you show a complete lack of understanding of ICM at all times. What the heck is your advice about? Seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

Go tiger gogogo!

Here are some numbers. If BB really calls with any K (that's top 40%!) then you should fold, it's -0.2 according to SNGPT. However, as others have stated, BB might not be so foolish. If we put him on a calling range of top 25% instead (basically KT+, any A, any pair) we can push our A9o with +0.7.

[kevkev60614]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Given your read that he calls with any A, any K, any PP, I think this is a push. If shortie doubles once, you're not a lock for third. If you double here, you stand a fair shot at first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Christ, you show a complete lack of understanding of ICM at all times. What the heck is your advice about? Seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tigerite, you'd be everybody's favorite poster if you'd post more about strategy and spend less time attacking people. How exactly do I "show a complete misunderstanding of ICM at all times?" In all of my posts?

I think my post was pretty straightforward. I'm saying it's a push. Why call me stupid and then wait an hour to post something intelligent?

What's most confusing about what you said is that I don't think this problem is even completely about ICM. I put the numbers in ICM before my first response and it said a push is +$EV. OP could've done that, if it was purely math. But since CO here will be blinded off in less than an orbit, ICM doesn't apply perfectly.

Most of the posters here post to exchange ideas and learn more about poker. If you know so much more than everyone else that our posts annoy you, why are you still here?

[xJMPx]

Thanks for all the responses, what I'm getting from you guys is the same as what I got from SNTPT. It's close. I think that because his calling range was so large here, I should have folded.

If I even had one more BB I think I would have folded, but I looked at my stack after posting the blind and figured if I didn't push, third was the best I could hope for and it wasn't even in the bag with a fold.

So, I pushed. He called with K9s and I had him dominated. He hit is K on the river and I was out in fourth. Funny thing, he called my A8 (button) last night with KTo (Sb) and I was out again. 0/2 against this guy.

[junkmail3]

I like to push this. It's too risky sitting around with the BB at 300, and A9 rocks!

[xJMPx]

Anyone else?