Made Draw Against TAG

Scotch78 · #1 11-05-2005, 10:59 AM

CO is 12/7.7/2 over 500 hands with a 23% WSD.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 3 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO raises, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

Scott

toss · #2 11-05-2005, 11:09 AM

I'd say the flop peel is questionable. Are you planning to fold to a raise on the river?

Scotch78 · #3 11-05-2005, 11:29 AM

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I'd say the flop peel is questionable

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I'm not particularly worried about sets (and especially two pair hands) with this flop, so AK and KQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are the only hands I'm really worried about. If he has a king, but neither of those hands, then I should have about 5 outs with redraws. At 9.5-1 that's plenty. Also, I figured that the chance of him having QJ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or a PP smaller than queens would help compensate for the times I'm up against AK.

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Are you planning to fold to a raise on the river?

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Probably, his stats don't suggest any nuttiness and I can't think of any reasonable raising hands that I beat.

Scott

toss · #4 11-05-2005, 11:45 AM

What your plan if a nonspade Q falls on the river?

Scotch78 · #5 11-05-2005, 01:30 PM

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What your plan if a nonspade Q falls on the river?

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Check-fold.

Scott

Dagger78 · #6 11-05-2005, 03:43 PM

You'd check fold if you hit a Queen on the river?

Don't you think this would also be a Bet-Fold? You're getting good odds that he has a pair smaller then queens. On the flop I assume you're good sometimes when you pair your queen, that obviusly has some value now. You're getting 7-1 (8-1 if he calls) on your bet and I bet you're good 15% of the time at least.

SNOWBALL138 · #7 11-05-2005, 12:19 PM

I really don't like your flop call. You're often looking at top pair, and you don't have the odds to call versus top pair. When you aren't looking at top pair, and are instead looking at a flush draw, you will still either lose when he makes the draw or be bluffed off of the winning hand.

Fold the flop.

Piiop · #8 11-05-2005, 12:31 PM

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You're often looking at top pair, and you don't have the odds to call versus top pair. When you aren't looking at top pair, and are instead looking at a flush draw, you will still either lose when he makes the draw or be bluffed off of the winning hand. Fold the flop.

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Can you explain your math behind this conclusion?

Scotch78 · #9 11-05-2005, 01:39 PM

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Can you explain your math behind this conclusion?

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If he has a king other than AK or KQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], then I have three aces, a backdoor flush draw worth about 1.5 outs and a backdoor straight draw worth a little bit.

Scott

Dagger78 · #10 11-05-2005, 03:39 PM

You can't routinely fold here to a fold raise from a TAG who Flat called pre-flop. You're getting raised by draws and medium pairs alot.

Fold the turn UI though.