KTs 3-way vs a semi-LAG TAG and an ape

[brazilio]

SB is a semi-LAG TAG who tilts occasionally. He's pretty ok, perhaps a little loose preflop and generally pretty straightforward postflop, occasionally does donky stuff and has a bad habit of calling down a bit too much. He hasn't been tilting tonight.

Button sucks, not superloose preflop but just incompetent postflop. He's at about 45/15/1.5 or so. Numbers get kind of wacky for these guys though, because I play a lot of people HU, 3-way, up to 6-way, so don't take those numbers particularly seriously.

Hero is in the BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

4-way

CO calls, Button folds, <font color="red">SB raises</font>, Hero calls, Button calls.

6SB to the flop 3-way

A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

<font color="red">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, Button calls

3-way to the turn for 4.5BB

A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

<font color="red">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, Button calls

3-way to the river for 7.5BB

J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

<font color="red">SB bets</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, <font color="red">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="red">SB caps</font>, Hero says wtf.

At the time of my possible river action the pot is 16.5BB

[JoshuaD]

With your reads you gotta call.

[TTChamp]

You are getting a little better than 8.5:1 to call so I think that mathematically it is a fold. One of these guys has the boat that often IMO. However, if you fold the best hand even 1 in 50 times you will be so pissed that you will most likely tilt. I think that your own sanity makes up for the missing equity so I say call. Consider it an investment in your own mental health.

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting a little better than 8.5:1 to call so I think that mathematically it is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, mathematically this is a clear call. There are far more trip or two pair hands our there than boat hands. Putting the SB on a range of 3-bet hands with an A in them and the botton with the straight, two pair, set, or boat, you have about 30% equity here.

I don't think the action is enough to lower your equity to less than 11% or so, so you should call.

[TTChamp]

[ QUOTE ]
No, mathematically this is a clear call. There are far more trip or two pair hands our there than boat hands. Putting the SB on a range of 3-bet hands with an A in them and the botton with the straight, two pair , set, or boat, you have about 30% equity here.


[/ QUOTE ]

So which one has 2 pair? The guy who 3 bet after calling the whole way or the guy who capped?

I think there is no way he is ahead 11% here, but like I said in my post it is worth the lost equity to call and avoid tilt.

[ QUOTE ]
So which one has 2 pair? The guy who 3 bet after calling the whole way or the guy who capped?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you've got one LAG/TAG and one incompetent ape. You are right that realizing I folded the best hand against them would be stultifying.

But do realize that the board pairing the A makes it less likely that someone has that card. There are just so many more A trip hands and two pair hands that you could be against that an ape might play this way that I just couldn't make myself fold.

[brazilio]

The LAG/TAG has an overaggression problem, but he's certainly not stupid and he's a good hand reader. I think you're making a mistake by saying the A pairing makes that card more unlikely. I would much much rather have the Q pairing than the A pairing, simply because hand ranges include an Ace a huge majority of time. I also think you're giving too much emphasis on the Button. He's truly incompetent. I really don't think the SB is going to cap AK on that board, and that's just about the only hand we beat. I'm not sure one way or the other about the river decision, but I do think it's really close.

I forgot to include in my calculation your implied odds if a Jh hits. I think it is fair to say you can cap the river if that hits, making you probably 8 extra BB in that case. That helps your equity somewhat.

[Spartan1983]

Tough one, but I would have to make a crying call.

[MrWookie47]

There are two of them which is really sucky. I don't think I can convince myself that there's not an 11% chance that neither of them have a boat. This is probably a little bit wrong, but I think I call.