I cost myself this hand

DRD66 · #1 11-03-2005, 12:36 PM

and didn't realize it until checking some hands in PT.
I think this is a leak, but don't know how big. I'd like opinions on possible holding for villian (and how likely), and where I screwed up.

Only seen villian play a few hands, not done anything terrible yet. Assume typical for the site/stakes.

Ultimate Bet 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (7 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, MP3 calls.

River: (8.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

Goodnews · #2 11-03-2005, 12:45 PM

Lead the turn.

3-bet the river.

I put the Villain on AxT, AA, QQ, JJ, AK. Many people call the flop bet with 2nd pair to see if they can hit two pair. Villain definitely not put you on flush because the flop bet is deceptive.

Definitely lead the turn though, it gains you valuable information (ie slow play flop and raise turn w. top pair etc.), I say this because you will go to showdown with your flush.

Only leak in this play is the turn.

Swax · #3 11-03-2005, 12:56 PM

Don't know about the coldcall PF with six already folding.

I agree with Goodnews - I think you have to lead the turn here. However, if villain filled up on the river, I can't imagine that you would have won the hand by doing so. Am I missing something?

numeri · #4 11-03-2005, 01:00 PM

I don't know if I call this preflop. I'd like another cold-caller between. As you played it, lead the turn. Why in the world do you check/raise when you just bet the flop? Having the turn check through would be a travesty.

Don't worry about why you lost. Ask yourself this: Are you folding at any point? Is MP3 folding? Since both of the answers are no, there is nothing you could do to win the hand. You did, however, play it poorly.

bozlax · #5 11-03-2005, 01:00 PM

Flop: Since there was a PFR, I probably don't lead out this flop. Check-call; you're behind most of a reasonable pfr's hand-range, you've only got 2 opps so you lose your value if you lose UTG+2, the PFR is likely to bet it for you, and you're not really afraid of giving a free card.

Turn: Open-bet. You've made your hand, but it's vulnerable, and you want to get money in while you likely have the best hand.

River: I play it the same when the board pairs. If Villan had KK, 55 or the case T with a paired kicker, there's nothing you can do about it.

Where do you think you "cost" yourself this hand?

DRD66 · #6 11-03-2005, 01:15 PM

You know, the CC looked weird to me, so I checked the HH again. This was my 2nd hand at the table, and the first hand I rivered a 1-card flush to beat villian's 2-pr (getting proper odds all the way). I must've figured his raise to be "playing catch up" and made a loose pf call.

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Where do you think you "cost" yourself this hand?

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The turn. Lots of poster's mention the turn. Think about range of villian's hands here.

Swax · #7 11-03-2005, 01:21 PM

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Where do you think you "cost" yourself this hand?

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The turn. Lots of poster's mention the turn. Think about range of villian's hands here.

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Right - villain's play definitely indicates that he may have been trying to bait you with a flopped 2 pair or set, but even so, how do you think it would have played out if you led the turn? Since there's almost no way he's folding a set, I'm assuming that perhaps he had 2-pair, KT or something, and you're thinking that if the turn action went bet/raise/3-bet that villain might lay KT down? I suppose that's possible but I doubt it. Not at .5/1 especially.

deception5 · #8 11-03-2005, 01:37 PM

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You know, the CC looked weird to me, so I checked the HH again. This was my 2nd hand at the table, and the first hand I rivered a 1-card flush to beat villian's 2-pr (getting proper odds all the way). I must've figured his raise to be "playing catch up" and made a loose pf call.

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Where do you think you "cost" yourself this hand?

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The turn. Lots of poster's mention the turn. Think about range of villian's hands here.

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If villian didn't fold to a c/r there's no way he's folding to a bet.

DRD66 · #9 11-03-2005, 01:59 PM

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thinking that if the turn action went bet/raise/3-bet that villain might lay KT down? I suppose that's possible but I doubt it. Not at .5/1 especially.

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If villian didn't fold to a c/r there's no way he's folding to a bet.

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I agree he's not folding, but do think I should have lead the turn. I replayed the hand in PT with the pot odds window on (been finding that helpful lately). If I had bet into the turn, he'd need 8 outs to call. This makes a set an iffy call, and calling with 2pr -EV. By my c/r-ing the turn, he needed only 6 outs to call, which he did correctly. He showed K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for the boat. Doubt he would have folded to a turn bet, but by c/r-ing I gave him proper odds to suck out on me.

This is why I'm not sure how big a leak this is. I think I need work on late play (WSD,W$SD, AG numbers kinda weird). And I seem to lose a lot of rivers, but everyone feels that way. Comments on finding and fixing late game leaks appreciated.

deception5 · #10 11-03-2005, 02:43 PM

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I agree he's not folding, but do think I should have lead the turn. I replayed the hand in PT with the pot odds window on (been finding that helpful lately). If I had bet into the turn, he'd need 8 outs to call. This makes a set an iffy call

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This is correct, but only if he knows he's beaten. Because poker is a game of incomplete information, when you lead the flop and turn into him when he has 2-pair or a set, there is a very good chance that he still has the best hand against your range of hands.

Your opponent should not think "my opponent has a flush now so I should go ahead and fold my 2-pair or set" (this would be a huge mistake on his part) but rather something like:

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it's possible my opponent has a flush, but also possible he's value betting a pair, an overpair, 2-pair, or a set here. He may also have a pair which just improved to a pair+flush draw like A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Tx or a pocket pair with one [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. He may even be bet/folding a hand like ATo which was tptk on the flop but now may be behind Kx or a flush. Either way there's no way I can lay this down yet and most likely I'm going to need to take this to showdown heads up because my hand is just too strong.

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