Continuation Bets Getting Picked Off Too Frequently

[ericlambi]

I feel that lately my CBs are getting picked off too frequently. Players seem to expect it, and will frequently try to pick off about any CB on a board that isn't Ace-high. This is bad for me because when I actually have a hand and can play back, they fold immediately, and most of the other times they win. A variation of the pickoff is that players call your flop bet and then go nuts on the turn, especially if you show weakness. A lot of these players can't help but be so proud of themselves as to show their hand, but even if they don't show their hand, you can frequently find something strange in their betting patterns that indicate it could be a "pickoff".

Here are some examples:

Raise PF from EP with 88. Called by one player on button. Flop comes T73 with a flush draw. I bet 3/4 pot and get min-raised, or maybe even a real raise. I think much of the time this happens the player has a flush draw or air (putting me on two overs), but playing back and being wrong is expensive here too. I'm also schocked at the number of players that are calling the CB in this spot with two overs.

Second example. 3 limpes, raise 6xBB with AQ on the button. UTG+1 calls. Flop comes T52 with a flush draw. Checked to me and I bet 3/4 pot. UTG+1 calls or min-raises (I fold to a real raise here 100% of the time). Again, I think villain makes this sort of move with a draw or air a bunch of time.

I've noticed that a lot of people who do this stuff have high VPIP and call raises with hands that are easily dominated. But maybe this CB pickoff is part of conscious strategy they have, and it makes them money. Who knows?

So what to do about this? I've been thinking about a lot of possible answers. Tell me what you think of these and post others:

1. Change nothing. Getting outplayed with Ace-high and 3rd pair hands happens. People who bluff a lot to try and outplay others with air will donate their stacks to me eventually anyway.

2. Make continuation bets smaller (~1/2 pot) so that they have a better ROI. This assumes they will have about the same success rate regardless of size.

3. Make continuation bets larger (~pot) so that they have a higher success rate.

4. Check/Fold more when I don't improve and am out of position, even if I was the pre-flop raiser.

5. Fire more second barrels on the turn when CB is called.

[xorbie]

(a) Raise more hands, so nobody will know if you have hit the flop.

(b) Play your made hands in a way which is not too different from your missed hands until it is too late for your opponents to differentiate.

(c) Put more pressure with your missed hands (fire second barrel in position, check raise turn OOP).

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
(a) Raise more hands, so nobody will know if you have hit the flop.

(b) Play your made hands in a way which is not too different from your missed hands until it is too late for your opponents to differentiate.

(c) Put more pressure with your missed hands (fire second barrel in position, check raise turn OOP).

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you think that (a) will lead to more pick off attempts and (c) will lead to chip spewing??

[pokerjoker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(a) Raise more hands, so nobody will know if you have hit the flop.

(b) Play your made hands in a way which is not too different from your missed hands until it is too late for your opponents to differentiate.

(c) Put more pressure with your missed hands (fire second barrel in position, check raise turn OOP).

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you think that (a) will lead to more pick off attempts and (c) will lead to chip spewing??

[/ QUOTE ]

ya, I like the post Xorbie, except for CR turn bluffs in SSNL....in my experience these get called way more than they should, especially if they called a flop c-bet.

PS, I go to school about 40 min away from you and my sister is at UofI. If u ever wanna have a friendly game let me know.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]

PS, I go to school about 40 min away from you and my sister is at UofI. If u ever wanna have a friendly game let me know.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds hot. There are definitely a large number of other trouts here.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(a) Raise more hands, so nobody will know if you have hit the flop.

(b) Play your made hands in a way which is not too different from your missed hands until it is too late for your opponents to differentiate.

(c) Put more pressure with your missed hands (fire second barrel in position, check raise turn OOP).

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you think that (a) will lead to more pick off attempts and (c) will lead to chip spewing??

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I like when people try to pick me off except I have two pair. Or even a straight draw, and I push all in. Think about it this way. If the pot has ~10BB in it and you pot it, that's putting in ~10BB. If villain plays back at you, he has to put in 30-40BB. Who's making the bigger mistake if he ends up folding later?

[scrapperdog]

The problem with this xorbie if you are making a continuation bet you missed the flop or have a questionable holding on the flop. Ace high, pocket pair with overcards on flop, that kind of stuff. If you flop 2 pair it is a value bet or semi bluff if you are open ended. Corrrect me if I am wrong. I have always took continuation bet to mean I have crap but am gonna try and take this pot down anyways cause I raised preflop and might be able to take it.

Semantics.

The point is Xorbie is making a bet on the flop which is a continuation of his preflop raise. Whether he has 2 pair or 8 high, he'll still make this bet with some frequency.

A player should not always make a continuation bet. If this is what the player does, it's a major leak in the player's game that needs addressed.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with this xorbie if you are making a continuation bet you missed the flop or have a questionable holding on the flop. Ace high, pocket pair with overcards on flop, that kind of stuff. If you flop 2 pair it is a value bet or semi bluff if you are open ended. Corrrect me if I am wrong. I have always took continuation bet to mean I have crap but am gonna try and take this pot down anyways cause I raised preflop and might be able to take it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, yeah. But I mean, if you have 78[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and flop comes 278 rainbow, what is villain going to give you credit for. He'll put you on AK like they always do, and he's taking 55 for a long ride.

[amoeba]

there is the option of don't continuation bet unless on A high K high or 2 broadway flops and make your money from the times the flop comes A high and you have suited connectors.

what is your preflop raise percentage though. perhaps your pfr is a bit too high thus decreasing the fold equity of your continuation bet.

as to amount. 3/4 pot works just as well as pot but I notice when moving down to 1/2 pot, fold equity dramatically decrease.