What do you think of this Turn semi-bluff?

#1 10-31-2005, 12:56 PM

Sorry, I can't find the HH, but this opportunity comes up pretty often.

Villian is a TAG 17/9/2.7

PF
Hero raises UTG+2 with KJs. MP2 3 bets, BB calls.

Flop (9sb) is rags, giving me a 4 flush draw.
Hero checks, MP2 bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn (6bb) is Ao
Hero check-raises

I would at least call with my FD getting 7:1, so I'm getting 8:1 on my bluff.

cold_cash · #2 10-31-2005, 01:02 PM

You're getting 4:1 on the check-raise.

I don't mind this against the right player, but I would usually have check-raised the flop and led the turn.

aargh57 · #3 10-31-2005, 01:04 PM

Wouldn't the flop be a worse place to do this as you're giving villain better odds to call the one bet?

#4 10-31-2005, 01:07 PM

Villian's hand range is AK-AQs or a AA-99. He's not folding either of those to a flop CR with only rags on the board. You're more likely to get 3 bet.
Since I'm in early position, there's a great chance villian is holding a big PP, not Aces. Probably around 50% of the time.

#5 10-31-2005, 01:05 PM

There are 7 BB in the pot and I'm putting in one more for sure, so that's 8. One more for the raise and it's 8:1, right?

#6 10-31-2005, 01:11 PM

w 7 BB in the pot, check call is 7:1, cr is 7:2 (4:1 assuming villain calls)

#7 10-31-2005, 01:15 PM

Check-call is obligatory. The pot is essentially 8 BB to me, and if I choose to add another bet, I'm getting 8:1. That's the way I look at it anyway.

Nfinity · #8 10-31-2005, 02:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting 4:1 on the check-raise.

I don't mind this against the right player, but I would usually have check-raised the flop and led the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

The flop CR is situational in this situation I would check, and had BB come along, called. Seeing him drop out makes the Check-raise/ Lead the Turn a good play.

If BB ended up seeing the Turn A in this situation it could us in a hairy situation. We don't want to possibly allow BB to make us face 2 cold, especially if he is willing to bluff-raise it and force us to discount outs that we don't have to. Of course if he drops to MP's bet then we open up a new opportunity for a semi-bluff.

Hmmm...Thoughts?

bozlax · #9 10-31-2005, 02:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The flop CR is situational in this situation I would check, and had BB come along, called. Seeing him drop out makes the Check-raise/ Lead the Turn a good play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this backwards? If BB stays in, you have a value raise with your flush draw and overcards. If he goes you can't value raise, so it's just a semi-bluff. (I think that it's only a good semi-bluff against a player that might be able to lay down, for instance, a middle PP when bet into on the turn, though.)

Nfinity · #10 10-31-2005, 02:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The flop CR is situational in this situation I would check, and had BB come along, called. Seeing him drop out makes the Check-raise/ Lead the Turn a good play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this backwards? If BB stays in, you have a value raise with your flush draw and overcards. If he goes you can't value raise, so it's just a semi-bluff. (I think that it's only a good semi-bluff against a player that might be able to lay down, for instance, a middle PP when bet into on the turn, though.)

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's so much value raise 3-way when we are likely behind OOP and some of our outs could be counterfeited. This CR will force us to put a lot more money in vs. a thinking player while behind, cuts down our implied odds when we hit, and makes the pot odds tempting for him to see a showdown.