I'm Lost - A few different options ...

adamstewart · #1 10-30-2005, 02:45 PM

MP is 62/24/1.1 with blind steal attempt of 50%.

What's your line for the flop and/or turn? (Btw, the river bet was a 'hail marry' bluff).

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls.

River: (5.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

#2 10-30-2005, 02:52 PM

How about check-raising the turn?

jba · #3 10-30-2005, 02:53 PM

I usually c/r the flop and lead the turn in this kind of spot.

I also would have consider a turn c/r after you just called the flop. I think both of these lines give you a better chance of getting villain to fold than the donk bets, though those are a bit cheaper.

I think the river bet in your line is bad. I think his call on the turn lets you know that he wants to go to showdown, and I really doubt the ace is going to change that - in fact I think after his call on the turn and the ace hitting the river, he almost always has a pair.

Surfbullet · #4 10-30-2005, 03:38 PM

Hey jba,

What hand range do you put villain on by the flop? How often do you expect to fold a better hand with a flop c/r? What's the likelihood of being 3bet?

IMO this is a poor flop to go for a c/r. Sure we've got outs, but pretty much everything he holds is going to be A-hi, a pair, or a semi-strong draw.

Surf

jba · #5 10-30-2005, 04:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hey jba,

What hand range do you put villain on by the flop? How often do you expect to fold a better hand with a flop c/r? What's the likelihood of being 3bet?

IMO this is a poor flop to go for a c/r. Sure we've got outs, but pretty much everything he holds is going to be A-hi, a pair, or a semi-strong draw.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

he steals with 50% of his hands -- i don't think we can put him on anything on the flop. he will only flopped a pair 33% of the time and A-high hands should make up < 20% of his range. I do think we have more fold equity than you do. also we are not going to have the credibility issues that we would on a low raggedy or paired flop -- for the same reasons you are scared of the flop.

what semi strong draws are out there? mostly gutshots, no?

(you very well may be right I might have switched to devils advocate halfway through this post)

Surfbullet · #6 10-30-2005, 05:20 PM

Hey jba,

On average one opponent will flop a pair 33% of the time. This is a misleading statistic however, since we aren't playing the average of all flops, we're playing this specific flop. Does he make a pair 33% of the time on a 222 board? Certainly not! Likewise, he's much more likely to make a pair or a draw on a J98 board.

Some hand ranges:
Ax+
K5+
Q5+
J6+
T8, T9, T7s, T6s
connectors down to 45
1gappers down to 79
any PP.

That's about 45.7% of his possible holdings. He's a 50% to steal but we'd expect a full 50% from the btn and sligthly less from the CO (assuming the sample size is sufficient anyway).

So, an J98 board...

-A2-A6 don't have a pair or draw, but may call anyway (it's notoriously hard to get these guys off of A-hi)
-A7 has a gutshot + overcard (he's calling)
-A8/9/J have pairs
-AT has the same OESD
-AQ/AK aren't folding.

-K4-K6 will probably fold.
-K7/KT have draws, he'll continue
-K8/9/J made a pair
-KQ has overcards+gutshot, not folding.

-Q5-6 will probably fold.
-Q7/QT have a draw+over
-Q8/9/J made a pair

-any J hand has a pair.

-any T hand has an OESD, and probably a pair too
-any 9 hand has a pair
-any 8 hand has a pair

-67 has a crappy oesd, may still call

-connectors / 1gappers under the board will probably fold.

-any PP is ahead of us, and wont fold.

Keep in mind our T outs are no good against any hand with a 7 or a Q, and our 6 outs are sketchy at best given the likelihood he's made a pair.

So, we're left with the unpleasant reality that most of his hand range is strong enough for him to continue. The key ingredient to the semi-bluff being profitable is that it has a significant chance to fold out a better hand. Here we have so few better hands folding that we are spewing chips with a weak draw.

Another interesting thing to note about this board:

Our hand has 33% hot/cold equity vs a 20% raiser.
Our hand has 37% hot/cold equity vs a 45% raiser. That's a very small difference considering how much weaker his average raising hand is - and it's because this board is SO BAD for FE.

Surf

jba · #7 10-30-2005, 09:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So, we're left with the unpleasant reality that most of his hand range is strong enough for him to continue.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for the great post, you convinced me

ddubois · #8 10-30-2005, 07:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
he steals with 50% of his hands -- i don't think we can put him on anything on the flop. he will only flopped a pair 33% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]
He might, statistically, only flop a pair 33% of the time on a random board, but on a 89J board I think that percentage would be much higher. The top 50% of hands (according to pokerstove, roughly 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o +,K5o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T8o+,98o) includes pretty much every pair, every ace, every two cards 8 or higher. I'm not going to take the time to count all the combos, but I'd wager it's more than 33%.

Surfbullet · #9 10-30-2005, 09:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he steals with 50% of his hands -- i don't think we can put him on anything on the flop. he will only flopped a pair 33% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]
He might, statistically, only flop a pair 33% of the time on a random board, but on a 89J board I think that percentage would be much higher. The top 50% of hands (according to pokerstove, roughly 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o +,K5o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T8o+,98o) includes pretty much every pair, every ace, every two cards 8 or higher. I'm not going to take the time to count all the combos, but I'd wager it's more than 33%.

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly! The 33% is an average of all flops. This one is way more likely to have hit our opponent, given his hand range.

Surf

NLSoldier · #10 10-30-2005, 09:15 PM

I dont like a flop CR here at all. Way too good of a chance he flopped a pair or draw and our pair draws suck.