Pump this Draw?

[lautzutao]

Limit O8 .5/1(10-handed)

Hero is in MP1 with: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO(Poster) checks, Button folds, SB folds, BB checks.

Flop 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5.5SB)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, <font color="red">MP2 raises</font>, CO calls, BB folds, UTG calls, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, <font color="red">MP2 raises</font>, CO calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.


Yes or no on the raising here? Didn't raise PF because I only had 1 limper come in before me...figured I had more than enough equity to be raising after everyone was trapped for bets.

[Ironman]

Lautzutao,

I see what you are trying to do but frankly, I don't like it.

Your opponent should bet the flop with either two pair or a set.

You have no shot at a low hand and are drawing to the high hand.

If your opponent has only two pair, you have a chance to out draw him if the board pairs.

Unfortunately, his reraise looks to me like a set...probably queens.

So...you raised for information. You got it. What do you do with that information?

I don't think you can fold.

You are only going to lose one more bet if you don't make you flush because you will call the turn and fold the river.

I don't like putting in raises when I'm pretty sure I'm behind.

Dave

By the way...remember, you don't really have 9 flush outs here because pairing the board makes a full house.

[lautzutao]

Fair enough, I'm drawing a bit thin against a set and didn't think about that I guess.

But against 2pair, don't I have about 33% equity or so here?

Would it change things if the 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] were a 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] giving me a BD Low draw?

[pipes]

[ QUOTE ]
Fair enough, I'm drawing a bit thin against a set and didn't think about that I guess.

But against 2pair, don't I have about 33% equity or so here?

Would it change things if the 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] were a 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] giving me a BD Low draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising with 4 players is a good play if you think you have 33% equity.

But I don't think you do once you get raised. You'll often be up against a set. Yes, it would be different if you also had backdoor low potential.

Try twodimes and give your opponents some reasonable hands and see what your equity is under various situations.

[lautzutao]

Well, accounting for 2 random hands for the others, if my opponent has a A3QQ I have 26% equity. If he has QQJT I have 28% equity. If he's raising with 2pair(A3Q9) My equity is over 33%...if he's a complete idiot and raising me with trash I'm assuming I'm even higher...

[pipes]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, accounting for 2 random hands for the others, if my opponent has a A3QQ I have 26% equity. If he has QQJT I have 28% equity. If he's raising with 2pair(A3Q9) My equity is over 33%...if he's a complete idiot and raising me with trash I'm assuming I'm even higher...

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting. With 4 players it does seem like your play was +EV.

Not sure if it would change things much, but I wonder what would happen to the equity if you put the other 2 opponents on hands.

Maybe give one of them A345 and the other one a big straight wrap KJT8. The wrap does not have much of an effect...only serves to slightly dirty up those 2 Ace outs.

That would almost be a worst case scenario equity wise.

Pump it when you have a low hand to go with your high hand.

[Buzz]

lautzutao - I think it's very close.

I don't think you are ahead here. If MP2 has what he/she is representing, (a set of queens), then MP2 figures to do best at the showdown, on the average. However, you are getting three to one fresh money odds and have eight outs (non-pairing clubs). Unless the board pairs on the turn, you will have two chances to catch one of the eight outs. As simulated, if we give MP2 a set (QdQhXY) and if we give UTG an open end straight draw (JhThZW) and if we make all CO's cards random, then you have about a 26% equity. (With three opponents, you need better than 25% to initiate fresh money inot the pot).

Thus from an odds standpoint, you're not far from correct whether you raise or not. Now the question is, "What effect would a raise have on your opponents on the next two betting rounds, if the turn is a non-pairing club?"

You do a tiny bit better on this betting round by raising, but I think you might do a even better on the next two betting rounds by not raising.

Thus I think you should not raise here. But it's very close.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[lautzutao]

[ QUOTE ]
lautzutao - I think it's very close.

I don't think you are ahead here. If MP2 has what he/she is representing, (a set of queens), then MP2 figures to do best at the showdown, on the average. However, you are getting three to one fresh money odds and have eight outs (non-pairing clubs). Unless the board pairs on the turn, you will have two chances to catch one of the eight outs. As simulated, if we give MP2 a set (QdQhXY) and if we give UTG an open end straight draw (JhThZW) and if we make all CO's cards random, then you have about a 26% equity. (With three opponents, you need better than 25% to initiate fresh money inot the pot).

Thus from an odds standpoint, you're not far from correct whether you raise or not. Now the question is, "What effect would a raise have on your opponents on the next two betting rounds, if the turn is a non-pairing club?"

You do a tiny bit better on this betting round by raising, but I think you might do a even better on the next two betting rounds by not raising.

Thus I think you should not raise here. But it's very close.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, but I have them trapped now. And next round I wouldn't have had the edge I have now if I hit a blank on the turn. Even if I hit my draw I'm probably not going to get the opportunity I got here to trap these guys for bets.

I didn't think my equity was as close to neutral as I saw it after the fact, so you're right here. I didn't factor in villian having a set which is a HUGE error on my part, and something I'm going to have to learn to pick up on. But if I'm guaranteed 30% equity here, or there were another player in this pot, this is far and away the correct play yes?

[benwood]

BTF:Raising is better. AA plays well short-handed. Flop:Raise on the 1st opportunity instead of waiting. Shut them out of back-dooring a lo. This also cleans up your chance of winning high when the board pairs, too.