TPTK vs a TAG turn c/r

detruncate · #1 10-27-2005, 04:26 AM

Villain and I are playing at two tables together. He seems solid. I think I've been playing unterribly to this point.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 2 folds, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero caps, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero ???

McGahee · #2 10-27-2005, 06:13 AM

Easy call down. He's not putting you on a steal since you're UTG, and only AA/JJ beat you. He probably has the same hand.

Guthrie · #3 10-27-2005, 06:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call down. He's not putting you on a steal since you're UTG, and only AA/JJ beat you. He probably has the same hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Just hope his isn't spades.

#4 10-27-2005, 06:38 AM

Seems like a call down is okay. Is this player tricky or straightforward? He might have KK or AA.

K-mac · #5 10-27-2005, 06:39 AM

Grunching via Wookie's Challenge.

I call his raise here because i cannot see the villian three bet and then calling a cap with a hand like T9 or something. We raised preflop with a good hand, and hit. I would call down , but i would be worried about a spade on the river. (I fear monsters under the bed) But shorthanded TPTK is a good hand so i call here.
The only hands that we should be behind with are AA,KK, and JJ. I am not sure villian three bets and calls a cap with 99, or J9 or even KJ.

Anyone see any problems with this?

detruncate · #6 10-27-2005, 06:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Grunching via Wookie's Challenge.

I call his raise here because i cannot see the villian three bet and then calling a cap with a hand like T9 or something. We raised preflop with a good hand, and hit. I would call down , but i would be worried about a spade on the river. (I fear monsters under the bed) But shorthanded TPTK is a good hand so i call here.
The only hands that we should be behind with are AA,KK, and JJ. I am not sure villian three bets and calls a cap with 99, or J9 or even KJ.

Anyone see any problems with this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi K-mac.

Your analysis of Villain's hand is off to to a good start, but remember that thinking things like, "But shorthanded TPTK is a good hand so i call here," ignores the fact that hand strength in poker is relative. You should instead be trying to figure out whether TPTK is a good hand in this particular situation.

You've started to flesh out Villain's possible pf holdings. How do we match up? How does the flop call and turn c/r change things (if at all)? Is he now more likely to be on some hands than others? How do you think our odds of being ahead compare to what the pot is offering us to call down? Do we have outs that will play into the calculation?

In summary, we first need to try to estimate our pot equity (i.e., what percentage of the time we think we're going to win the pot UI + outs). This will tell us whether we have odds to raise -- if our equity is greater than the % of the bets we will put in on that street, it's value raise time. If not, we compare our chances of winning the pot (again, UI + outs) to what the pot is offering to figure out whether we should even call -- effective odds + anything we expect to make via implied odds needs to be greater than our equity. If we think our equity is 25% (for example), we need to make at least 3:1 on the total amount we have to commit to the pot (turn call + river call) to make calling down neutral.

It can get be complicated, but that's why we spend so much time analyzing hands away from the table.

Thanks for your input. Apologies if I underestimated your level of experience. Usually seems best to err on the side of over-explanation.

ArturiusX · #7 10-27-2005, 06:49 AM

I call down, and I think its very close.

#8 10-27-2005, 07:02 AM

*grunch*
I call down.

I'll admit, it's only b/c I have no freakin' idea what to do.

It's so read dependant.

@bsolute_luck · #9 10-27-2005, 07:47 AM

i call this down all day. TPTK and a c/r on a scare card? psh this ain't NL. pay off.

#10 10-27-2005, 09:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i call this down all day. TPTK and a c/r on a scare card? psh this ain't NL. pay off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you taking a WA\WB line and betting the river? or have you just resigned to seeing SD as cheaply as possible?