Live 2/5 Wynn Hand Deepstacked

Villain (~$1500) in this hand has position on me. I have him covered. I am relatively new to the table, but so far I have gathered that Villain is trying to play well, but may be new to live poker. He looks back at his cards like 10 times in each hand and can be read like a book. I have been playing tight so far and have not gotten out of line.

EP limps

Hero raises to $30 with --

Villain checks his hole cards about 3 times and very nervously makes it $60 to go. I put him on a big hand. Probably AA, KK, or QQ so I call.

Flop ($128) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check

Villain nervously bets $50

I call

Turn ($228) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I check

Villain bets $100

I call

River ($428) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I lead out for $300

What do you put me on?
Would you fold KK or QQ here if you were Villain?
If you have a strong read that villain has KK which for hypothetical sake, we will say is the best hand, would you bet the river, and if so, how much?

[Lucky]

If you have a set, pump it on turn. If you're representing an Ace with your busted flush draw, hoping he'll drop his KK or whatever, you may need a better read. Are you sure he'll much his kk. He may thank god he didnt have to get all in on this hand and breathe a sigh of relief as he shows you KK.

Would your first thought be that I had A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]X [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and missed my flush, but trumped the KK with my A? What could I have that I would raise preflop, than cold call till' the river and lead out on the river?

[Post-Oak]

Even if this villain's first thought is "Oh no, he has an ace!", he is still calling you with KK here.

First off, this villain seems like a poor player. All of his bets/raises are way too small. Do you really think he is going to make a laydown when you bet 3/4 of the pot on the river here?

Don't bluff at fish.

That being said, your line does not look legit even to a thinking player. What hand could you have which includes an A? AQ/AK of hearts? He could have the Q or K of hearts in his hand. Unless you were raising 6X BB with all sorts of trash, I don't see you holding many other hands with an A. He probably doesn't even realize how badly he is underbetting the pot, so no way he believes a non-suited AK of heart.

Out of curiosity, what did you think his less than 1/2 pot bets signified? To me the most probable scenarios are:
1. he is a fish with AK of hearts
2. he is a fish with AA and figures you squarely on a lower pair, and wants to bleed you slowly
3. he is a fish with KK and figures you sqaurely on a big pair which is either way behind or way ahead of him

Yeah, he's gonna make a "crying" call even if he has KK or QQ. He just doesn't seem like a sophistacted player, and your line is not convincing. If you already had a hand, you wouldn't be check calling small bets on the flop and turn. Now when the A hits and you bet, he may not like it, but he's calling. It's just too obvious of a bluffing opportunity.

[kagame]

hero has an ace high flush draw and gets paid off

poker is silly

[ QUOTE ]
hero has an ace high flush draw and gets paid off

poker is silly

[/ QUOTE ]

I know most players will put hero on the ace high flush draw, but my question is not wether or not he gets paid off, but would you pay him off? Or do you just throw your cards in the muck?

[Jeebus]

I think a smaller or larger bet would be appropriate. I don't really like the larger that looks like a missed flush draw bluff because someone has to actually think that is what happened for it to work. The smaller size bet can be interpretted as a smaller pair trying to feign having an ace. At least thats how it works where I play.

I just wouldn't expect the 300 bet to get paid, it looks exactly like a Ace high flush draw that is value betting the ace.

[kagame]

by silly i mean:

i call here because the bet makes zero sense and looks like a bluff from a missed draw

villain knows i cant call that much with an underpair

wait, or does he know i know he knows?

[ QUOTE ]
Even if this villain's first thought is "Oh no, he has an ace!", he is still calling you with KK here.

First off, this villain seems like a poor player. All of his bets/raises are way too small. Do you really think he is going to make a laydown when you bet 3/4 of the pot on the river here?

Don't bluff at fish.

That being said, your line does not look legit even to a thinking player. What hand could you have which includes an A? AQ/AK of hearts? He could have the Q or K of hearts in his hand. Unless you were raising 6X BB with all sorts of trash, I don't see you holding many other hands with an A. He probably doesn't even realize how badly he is underbetting the pot, so no way he believes a non-suited AK of heart.

Out of curiosity, what did you think his less than 1/2 pot bets signified? To me the most probable scenarios are:
1. he is a fish with AK of hearts
2. he is a fish with AA and figures you squarely on a lower pair, and wants to bleed you slowly
3. he is a fish with KK and figures you sqaurely on a big pair which is either way behind or way ahead of him

Yeah, he's gonna make a "crying" call even if he has KK or QQ. He just doesn't seem like a sophistacted player, and your line is not convincing. If you already had a hand, you wouldn't be check calling small bets on the flop and turn. Now when the A hits and you bet, he may not like it, but he's calling. It's just too obvious of a bluffing opportunity.

[/ QUOTE ]

In online poker I agree with you for the most part, but if you play live enough you see different things. The average players at this stake in live games are usually nervous and are not taking bet size to pot ratio seriously enough. They usually don't even know how much is in the pot. This is one of the reasons why live poker has much worse players at each corresponding level than online. It is not unusual for people to bet like this live, but your point is semi-valid and understood.

Another thing to be thinking about is that the decent players at this level are generally pretty weak/tight. I also don't think most players are beating this game in the long run including that description of a "decent" player for live 2/5.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
In online poker I agree with you for the most part, but if you play live enough you see different things. The average players at this stake in live games are usually nervous and are not taking bet size to pot ratio seriously enough. They usually don't even know how much is in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I have to agree with you here. I do not play live much. Last time I played live, I was confused when a guy said "Hmm, why such a large raise?" after I made a less than pot sized raise. The post flop bets were pretty much in line, but the raises tended to be way too small.

[ QUOTE ]

Another thing to be thinking about is that the decent players at this level are generally pretty weak/tight.


[/ QUOTE ]

OK, but these weak tight players tend to be unimaginative. They don't fold too much in these situations. They just aren't aggressive enough with their bets and raises. In other words, they are weak, but not because they fold too much when they hold an overpair. They are weak because they are way too passive when it comes to betting/raising. That is my experience anyway. I am not describing a loose/passive player. I mean the type who is selective with his hands, but is not going to fold KK here when he finally plays a hand to the river.

You said in your original post that you had been playing tight and had not gotten out of line. He is not going to put you on a suited A baby here. You raised preflop. If he is weak-tight, he wouldn't make this move and he won't think it is likely you have done it either.

On to the questions you asked in your original post. Just to note, it is a little awkward to answer these questions, because I hate his min-raise before the flop and his small bets after the flop.

What do you put me on?
It's a little hard to answer this question because I hate how he played the hand. He already represented a big pair before the flop, when he reraised you. So why the smalll bets on the flop and turn? To me, it makes it a little harder to read your hand.

I would consider your most likely holding to be an overpair to the flop, but not AA (because you check-called smallish bets on the flop and turn). Other likely holdings are the ace of heart with the K, Q or J of heart.

Would you fold KK or QQ here if you were Villain?
I would call here. My thinking would be that you know my most likely holding is a big pair, and that the A could be a scare card. I call.

If you have a strong read that villain has KK which for hypothetical sake, we will say is the best hand, would you bet the river, and if so, how much?

I would not bet the river if I could not beat KK. If he is a good player, the move seems a little too transparent. If he is a bad player, he is not going to lay down KK on the river anyway.

I really think you get called on the river here by both thinking and un-thinking players holding KK.