Raising for a free card with overcards

friends · #1 10-21-2005, 10:11 AM

UTG1 - 19/13/2.5 WTSD - 55%.

Empire 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 folds, UTG+1 raises, 4 folds, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG+1 caps, 1 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls.

River: (8.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB.
Results in white below:
Hero has Ks Ac (a straight, ten to ace.)
UTG+1 has Kh Kd (a pair of kings.)
Hero wins 10.25 BB.


Possible UTG hands from raising from EP include:
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, AQ ~ 60%
AK ~ 15%
AJ, KQs ~ 25%

So on the flop I think I am 40/60 underlog, but the pot odds are large, so I should continue.
The main question - was it profitable to raise for a free card or should I bet the turn if he just call my flop bet (he may call it with 88, 99, TT, JJ)?
Formally I am 1:3,14 to improve by river (not 3,14 because of possible AA, KK, QQ, AQ, KQ + opponent is agressive and was able to bet the turn). In fact I am about 1:6 to improve, pot odds 1:6.25 (for raising)+probably I will get 1 bet on the river.

So, will be the flop raise a then the turn check correct here?

sean c · #2 10-21-2005, 10:16 AM

Against an early position capper your almost never getting a free card. Your most likely getting three bet.

sean c · #3 10-21-2005, 10:27 AM

Also your capping range for a player with these stats is to wide. Whether or not to call the turn bet is very close and raising the flop is just flat spewage.

Don't post results.

@bsolute_luck · #4 10-21-2005, 10:42 AM

that turn call is very suspect. you're up against AA-JJ almost every time and have 4 outs.

jakbse · #5 10-21-2005, 11:04 AM

Doesn't the gutshot + max 3 outs for the overs justify a turn call?

sean c · #6 10-21-2005, 11:07 AM

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Doesn't the gutshot + max 3 outs for the overs justify a turn call?

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Your overs can't be counted as three outs aginst villians capping range.

deception5 · #7 10-21-2005, 11:25 AM

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you're up against AA-JJ almost every time and have 4 outs.

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Nearly half the time it's AK unless you are thinking he won't cap with AKo.

@bsolute_luck · #8 10-21-2005, 11:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you're up against AA-JJ almost every time and have 4 outs.

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Nearly half the time it's AK unless you are thinking he won't cap with AKo.

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maybe. but i'm just looking at how tight villain is that's all, so it isn't that i think he won't cap, i just don't think he's betting this turn again with UI overcards.

Redd · #9 10-21-2005, 11:38 AM

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that turn call is very suspect. you're up against AA-JJ almost every time and have 4 outs.

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But we surely have at least one TP out. And we still might be tied for first place right now.

@bsolute_luck · #10 10-21-2005, 11:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
that turn call is very suspect. you're up against AA-JJ almost every time and have 4 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

But we surely have at least one TP out. And we still might be tied for first place right now.

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basically we're hoping he has EXACTLY KK is what you're saying. and no (i said this in the above posting which i doubt you've read but...) i don't think a villain of these stats is betting this turn again with UI OCs.