Does this move have + EV? or am I spewing?

golfboy7 · #1 10-21-2005, 01:25 AM

No reads really, turn bettor just sat down, small blind is tight with 14% vpip.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
3 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB bets, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero raises, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (12.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: 15.50 BB

My thoughts when the 10 hit on the turn:

'why is this guy betting here? If he has the 10, he's going to scare everyone out by the bet. I raised the flop and i'm to his immediate left, so if he's even semi-knowledgable, he knows he can count on me for a turn continuation bet. And if that's the case, he'd be much better of trapping the blinds with a check raise.'

So I deemed this as either a donk bet, where he thought I was raising my flush draw on the flop or just a plain old bluff.

My thoughts on the river:

After both blinds called the turn bet from a NEW aggressor, I kind of have to figure one of them for a 7 right? So my immediate thoughts when the J hit were 'I hope MP1 bets. I probably have MP1 beat and the blinds, facing 2BB's with 2 overs on the river may muck their better hands.'

Thoughts?

Borodog · #2 10-21-2005, 01:39 AM

Flop raise: eh. You'll probably increase your chances of winning the pot, but this is not the flop I'm crossing my fingers for when I limp A6s.

Fold the turn. The donk bet is a Ten, probably T9 or T8. If you weren't beat before, the people cold calling the flop raise and the new bettor in front of you should tell you to GTFO.

You bluff raised the river overcard and got lucky that the turn donk folded his ten.

#3 10-25-2005, 02:30 PM

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Fold the turn. The donk bet is a Ten, probably T9 or T8.

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I agree that the donkbet is a T, but you have current odds to draw out on her hand. Start with the assumption that you have 5 clean outs against MP1. If you call and get calls behind you, I would discount the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as an out, meaning that you have 10.5:1 to draw out.

You are getting 9.5:1 on your turn call. This is good enough for a call, yet may not be good enough for a raise. If you call and get at least a call behind you, you techincally got 10.5:1 on your call, making it an okay call for your 4-outer. I suppose the problem is that if the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] does hit, then you will likely end up losing another bet on the river.

Anyway I think this is a good call on the turn.

Borodog · #4 10-25-2005, 02:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
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Fold the turn. The donk bet is a Ten, probably T9 or T8.

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I agree that the donkbet is a T, but you have current odds to draw out on her hand. Start with the assumption that you have 5 clean outs against MP1. If you call and get calls behind you, I would discount the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as an out, meaning that you have 10.5:1 to draw out.

You are getting 9.5:1 on your turn call. This is good enough for a call, yet may not be good enough for a raise. If you call and get at least a call behind you, you techincally got 10.5:1 on your call, making it an okay call for your 4-outer. I suppose the problem is that if the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] does hit, then you will likely end up losing another bet on the river.

Anyway I think this is a good call on the turn.

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Even though you are getting nice odds, I think the fact that there are 3 players left to act behind you makes this a fold on the turn. But I think it's close.

#5 10-21-2005, 01:40 AM

seemy waay too risky without reads. i wouldn't have the ballz for it

lefty rosen · #6 10-25-2005, 03:03 AM

I do this move all the time and then I go on a 100BB downswing it's total donkey shiat..... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

#7 10-21-2005, 01:40 AM

At 2-4 with no reads, this play cannot be +EV. Most players at this level will pay off this raise if they have any kind of hand that has you beat.

Harv72b · #8 10-21-2005, 01:43 AM

MP1 may well have the ten; a lot of players on these limits will take one off on the flop with two overs, regardless of any draws out there. When he hits his ten, he might want you to raise, especially if you really are on a flush draw or 88/99, because he realizes that his pair of tens, if best, is vulnerable to overcards falling, hearts coming, an 8 or 9 coming...you name it. He also doesn't want you checking through with a 7, 88/99, etc. If I were MP1 and I had decided to stay in with AT (A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) on the flop, I'd bet the turn, too.

So based on that read, I don't like the river raise; it worked this time (MP1 probably picked up a gutshot to go with his flush draw & decided to bluff), but I don't think it will very often. If you have a specific read on the villain (mainly that he's a maniac/overplays his draws badly), it's okay...but against an unknown, I just muck to the river bet (even calling the turn bet is iffy, as one of your 5 outs when behind is dirty).

BTW, I'm not a huge fan of raising the flop with second pair + backdoor flush draw after a bet and 2 callers, either. You have the pot odds to call the bet, but you're probably not best here very often and you certainly can't be playing for a free card with the 2-suited flop.

Felipe · #9 10-21-2005, 02:25 AM

*blindpost*

You have pot odds to call the turn raise. You've got 5 squeeky clean outs, and 9:1 odds to chase. But you should raise if you are going to continue the hand. You cannot allow other hands to call behind you for cheap. You should give them an opportunity to make a mistake - either folding a hand that beats you, or calling without pot odds.

I'm still having issues with raising the river in my own experience. I think your example suits the play best. Good post.

[ QUOTE ]
No reads really, turn bettor just sat down, small blind is tight with 14% vpip.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
3 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB bets, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero raises, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (12.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: 15.50 BB
Thoughts?

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#10 10-22-2005, 11:08 AM

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You've got 5 squeeky clean outs,

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I'm counting less than 5. Am I missing something?