AK Vs Flush board.

POKhER · #1 10-20-2005, 05:53 PM

villan = 54/.45/.84

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds.

River: (6.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero?

turn/river please.

shadow29 · #2 10-20-2005, 05:59 PM

Fold?

#3 10-20-2005, 06:00 PM

call and hope he's betting the board.
turn...I probably would have checked

shadow29 · #4 10-20-2005, 06:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
call and hope he's betting the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like to "hope" in small pots, especially since we're "hoping" for 1/2 of the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
turn...I probably would have checked

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

Shillx · #5 10-20-2005, 06:07 PM

Why would you bet the turn here... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

shadow29 · #6 10-20-2005, 06:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you bet the turn here... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

b/c you have 2 pair, an easy fold to a c/r, and a chance for a free showdown?

edit- I expect to win the pot on the turn when I bet >1/4 times.

Shillx · #7 10-20-2005, 06:14 PM

I expect to win the pot on the turn when I bet >1/4 times.

This means he has nothing and will either bluff the river or check it to you. Let him throw his $$ away on the end. We also give up a 9% chance to outdraw him those times that we have to fold to a check/raise. The only downside to checking is that it will cost us half the pot those times that the river is the 5th [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (and we are ahead now). Since the pot is small I don't care about that very much.

shadow29 · #8 10-20-2005, 06:16 PM

So you're calling, but not overcalling a bet on a 5th [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the River if we check the Turn?

I think that you're right in your analysis.

Shillx · #9 10-20-2005, 06:24 PM

Well my post was actually designed for those times that you are HU. I forgot about the 3rd person on the turn, but his presence doesn't exactly make me feel plucky when the 4th [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] comes. The only reason to bet would be if we thought that the 1st player would call with garbage and that would make the 2nd player fold the best hand. It takes an awesome read to make this kind of play though and we don't have it.

Brad

Jingleheimer · #10 10-20-2005, 06:22 PM

SB and BB together are almost 2:1 not to have any hearts. That both called on the flop should change those probabilities somewhat. Not sure if it makes it worse than 4:1. But if they don't have hearts, they're not calling. If they do, you're wasting your bet except if you can fold out a small heart and the other guy has none. Tough to check-fold top two on the river, but it really looks like SB has a high [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and doesn't want the river to check through.

J