Bluff EV

WalkAmongUs · #1 10-19-2005, 10:42 PM

I haven't seen too much discussion of bluffs lately. Do you think this was a +EV spot to bluff? I'm always on the lookout for opportunites for pilfering to present themselves. I realize this isn't a pure bluff, but I suspect theres a chance I got a better hand to fold. He also might have raised a flush draw and followed through on the river...

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Button folds.

Turn: (2.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP3 raises, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, MP1 folds, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

lautzutao · #2 10-19-2005, 10:43 PM

Obviously it was if you show everyone folding[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

DavidC · #3 10-21-2005, 01:54 PM

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Obviously it was if you show everyone folding[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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No, that doesn't necessarily make it a good bluff. It's possible that no one layed down a hand better than hero's here. In that case, it's clearly best just to call to try to get MP1 to call with whatever he has.

milesdyson · #4 10-19-2005, 10:49 PM

this looks to me like one of the worst possible spots to bluff check raise. the card completed NO DRAWS WHATSOEVER, and it's the SAME CARD as this guy probably hit on the turn.

Shillx · #5 10-19-2005, 10:57 PM

Bet the flop already.

MATT111 · #6 10-20-2005, 10:28 AM

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Bet the flop already.

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What about a check/raise plan (depending on who bets and how many opponents call)?

LoaferGee12 · #7 10-20-2005, 02:13 PM

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Bet the flop already.

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What about a check/raise plan (depending on who bets and how many opponents call)?

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Ragged flop with 3 opponents, no need to get tricky.

MATT111 · #8 10-21-2005, 07:58 AM

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Bet the flop already.

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What about a check/raise plan (depending on who bets and how many opponents call)?

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Ragged flop with 3 opponents, no need to get tricky.

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I still think checking is superior to betting.
1) We are not very concerned about giving a free card as the pot is small.
2) We won`t buy the pot right now very often by betting against 3 opponents.
3) The turn will be easier to play.
(whats your plan if there is lets say 2 callers and a blank on the turn?)
4) If it is checked to the button who bets we will be able to create a HU situation against a probably worse hand.
5) We will be able to see how much our opponents like their hands and get off the hand easily if behind.

WalkAmongUs · #9 10-21-2005, 08:57 AM

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1) We are not very concerned about giving a free card as the pot is small.

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But our hand has a good chance of being the best hand. Why would we want to give our opponents infinite odds to draw out no matter how big the pot is. What are we hoping to gain by giving a free card?

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2) We won`t buy the pot right now very often by betting against 3 opponents.

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There are only two opponents and if we have an excellent chance to have the best hand then we are not "buying the pot" We have the best hand.

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3) The turn will be easier to play.
(whats your plan if there is lets say 2 callers and a blank on the turn?)

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The turn will be HARDER to play. If someone had TP, they had no reason to slowplay it on the flop. Only a very very passive player would check TP through in this situation. If we give a free card and another high card comes on the turn and someone bets we will probably have to fold and the chance that we were bluffed out is greater. Now there are 2 overcards on the board for you to be beat by.

I know if I'm last against 2 other opponents and its checked through on the flop and then checked to me on the turn I'm very likely to take a stab at it. I've had a very high success rate at doing this because it usually means no one has anything (including myself) and that the first one to bet takes down the pot.

If a blank hits on the turn and its checked through you bet again because the card was unlikely to help anyone and you figure to still be out in front.

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4) If it is checked to the button who bets we will be able to create a HU situation against a probably worse hand.

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Great, except you just gave him a free card to draw out on you with.

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5) We will be able to see how much our opponents like their hands and get off the hand easily if behind.

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Everyone has already checked through, telling you they aren't fans of their hand. There was a straight draw on board. Giving free cards with draws on board is a mistake. If an opponent checked TP through twice and goes on to win the hand say "nh" and put him on your buddy list.

LoaferGee12 · #10 10-20-2005, 12:12 AM

You should be betting that flop. Given the way you played it, I'm folding to a turn raise as I really don't see a 6 raising here. Given the way you played it after that, I'm check-folding the river and no I don't think the bluff is +EV. You will rarely get a fold, even from TAGs.