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#1
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nifty AA hand
$80-160 at Bay101. I was in the cutoff with pocket aces, both black. Two players limped and I raised. The button called, leaving him with exactly two big bets. Both blinds folded and both limpers called. Four players.
The flop was 8-6-3 with two hearts. The limpers checked and I bet. The button called. My read on the button at this point was I think he would have raised in that spot with any hand that could beat mine with one improvement, in other words, a draw or a pair. Because he did not raise, I assumed he needed runner runner to beat my aces. The first limper folded and the second limper checkraised. I called* and the button called. Three players. The turn was a black king. The limper checked. I put him mostly on a draw, but possibly a set. (My non-threebet on the flop might have looked to him like I had AK, meaning he might go for a checkraise on the turn with a set even after he checkraised the flop.) I was about to bet the turn when I looked left and I saw that the button liked the king. So I checked, and the button bet, he was all-in now, and the limper called, and I checkraised into the dry side pot, and the limper called, and now I knew I had him beat, and the river came a heart, and the limper bet fast, and I folded just as fast, and the limper turned over the nut flush, and the button showed KQ, and all and all I figure I earned $320 on this hand, the $160 extra that the limper put into the pot because I checkraised the turn instead of betting it, plus the $160 I didn't put it on the river. Running goooood! *(Let’s stick with an orientation based on the actual players and card distribution, and take a look at what would have happened had I threebet on the flop. The button, despite being shortstacked, was not playing or thinking desperately. I strongly believe that he would not have called two more bets cold on the flop with KQ. So the pot would have come down to headsup on the flop had I reraised. Assuming the limper just calls my reraise on the flop … 1) If he checkcalls the turn and he bets the river, I’d call. 2) If he checkraises the turn, I would call his turn raise and I’d call a river bet. 3) If he checkcalls the turn and he checks the river, I would very likely bet, and when he checkraises, I would decide then what to do. 4) If he checkraises the turn and he checks the river, I would decide then whether to bet or check. If I decided to bet, I would have very likely already decided whether or not I was going to fold to a checkraise.) Tommy |
#2
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Re: nifty AA hand
Again Tommy-- nice post, nice play and great thinking at the table==
this must be how you keep getting a steak and not Taco Bell night after night--- Love the CD I bought from Poker Babe (Robin)...... |
#3
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Re: nifty AA hand
[ QUOTE ]
this must be how you keep getting a steak and not Taco Bell night after night--- [/ QUOTE ] He's missing out. |
#4
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Re: nifty AA hand
hey tommy,
love reading your posts. do you ever win a hand? -fuji [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] |
#5
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Re: nifty AA hand
[ QUOTE ]
hey tommy, love reading your posts. do you ever win a hand? -fuji [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] He made $320 on the hand! ~D |
#6
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Re: nifty AA hand
[ QUOTE ]
and all and all I figure I earned $320 on this hand, the $160 extra that the limper put into the pot because I checkraised the turn instead of betting it, plus the $160 I didn't put it on the river. [/ QUOTE ] You didn't earn a full $160 extra on the turn checkraise, because the limper had a share of the pot equity at that point with his nut flush draw. For simplicity, let's say he had 20% equity. Thus, $320 went into the pot with that extra bet on the turn ($160 from him and $160 from you), of which he expects to win about $64 = 20% of $320. So your turn checkraise makes you about $96 (the difference between what he put in and what he can expect to get back). |
#7
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Re: nifty AA hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] and all and all I figure I earned $320 on this hand, the $160 extra that the limper put into the pot because I checkraised the turn instead of betting it, plus the $160 I didn't put it on the river. [/ QUOTE ] You didn't earn a full $160 extra on the turn checkraise, because the limper had a share of the pot equity at that point with his nut flush draw. For simplicity, let's say he had 20% equity. Thus, $320 went into the pot with that extra bet on the turn ($160 from him and $160 from you), of which he expects to win about $64 = 20% of $320. So your turn checkraise makes you about $96 (the difference between what he put in and what he can expect to get back). [/ QUOTE ] Right and this is given that Tommy's reads are perfect in these situations. If he's right on the river 95% of the time instead of 100 he saved himself $160 - ( .05 * 1760 ) if I counted right. His turn read if not 100% accurate could cost him some money as well. Not insignificant numbers but clearly not as much as the amounts Tommy is stating. Also Tommy's assuming that the the almost all in player would catch a card that would help the almost all in player on the turn thus setting up his turn check raise. That's probably not going to happen too often which means that not 3 betting the flop was probably a mistake that cost him some money IMO. |
#8
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Re: nifty AA hand
"I was about to bet the turn when I looked left and I saw that the button liked the king."
Can you provide any details about what exactly you saw? Thanks. |
#9
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Re: nifty AA hand
[ QUOTE ]
"I was about to bet the turn when I looked left and I saw that the button liked the king." Can you provide any details about what exactly you saw? Thanks. [/ QUOTE ] He was probably giving the dealer a thumbs up. -SmileyEH |
#10
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Re: nifty AA hand
Yeah, I saw that one in Caro's book of tells.
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