flop decision

gopnik · #1 10-12-2005, 08:15 AM

I have not been at the table long but MP1 looks rockish.

Pot's big so I decided to get aggressive on the flop. Should I have just called since I am probably behind MP1 and I want people in in case I catch? Turn bet was an attempt to push MP1 off AK if it was his hand. Thoughts?

Party Poker 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises, 1 folds, MP3 calls, Hero 3-bets, 1 folds, SB calls, 1 folds, MP1 caps, MP3 calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (17.00 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets, MP3 calls, Hero raises, SB folds, MP1 3-bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (13.00 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (16.00 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 16.00 BB.

#2 10-12-2005, 08:17 AM

I think you can cap flop. Then bet turn and check through the river and lose to KK.

tiltaholic · #3 10-12-2005, 08:37 AM

i think the way you played the flop was good.
i think the turn bet is good.

if mp3 is an idiot then i bet the river.

Fantam · #4 10-12-2005, 08:48 AM

Yes, I think that you should have just called the flop, so that SB was not forced to fold or call 2 bets cold. You really needed all 3 opponents to stay in the hand for your raise to be for value.

I suspect that MP1 did not bet the turn, because he feared someone having a T. When MP3 checked behind MP1, I expect that he was probably on a straight draw also, or had a weaker pair.

From MP1's 3-betting on the flop, I think that its more likely that he had an overpair to your JJ than AK, and I suspect that MP1 was prepared to call down any subsequent bets on later streets. So I think that I would also have checked behind on the turn.

Finally, I expect that MP1 checked the river still fearing the T, because you bet the turn. If MP1 and MP3 had both checked the river after you checked behind on the turn, then I think that I would have bet.

@bsolute_luck · #5 10-12-2005, 09:38 AM

nh. play exactly the same way. even if he has a high pocket pair, we have someone trapped plus the OESD and the BDFD (albeit not that strong) for uber-outs.

i'd like discussion on the river check because i really don't think it is bad. AK isn't calling or a busted flush/OESD, but an overpair could very well check/call this scare turn even though we might not play this way, it is possible.

tiltaholic · #6 10-12-2005, 10:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
nh. play exactly the same way. even if he has a high pocket pair, we have someone trapped plus the OESD and the BDFD (albeit not that strong) for uber-outs.

i'd like discussion on the river check because i really don't think it is bad. AK isn't calling or a busted flush/OESD, but an overpair could very well check/call this scare turn even though we might not play this way, it is possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd say that a rockish player certainly won't call with AK, but the other player may likely call with a worse hand.

and a rockish player might even fold a big pair because rockish players find spectacular monsters under the bed sometimes...one out of 17 times?

combined, i think we have both of them beat enough.

and if he's not folding a big overpair we lose anyway.

Buckmulligan · #7 10-12-2005, 10:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
nh. play exactly the same way. even if he has a high pocket pair, we have someone trapped plus the OESD and the BDFD (albeit not that strong) for uber-outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

If mp1 has a big pair, and I dont see him leading AK, so I'm assuming he does, we are a 3.7:1 dog to win this hand with our ten outs. MP3 trapped still doesn't make raising this profitable. Betting here is only useful when we are ahead. Are we?

xenthebrain · #8 10-12-2005, 09:40 AM

With an overpair you should value-bet the river here.

You will not win everytime of course, but a bet is profitable

Buckmulligan · #9 10-12-2005, 10:13 AM

I call the flop because we aren't ahead and probably don't have equity unless sb and mp3 come along for the second bet. Furthermore, we have very nice implied odds for our ten outs by calling, as we can expect MP1s QQ,KK,AA (probably 75% holding, although QQ is bad for our two jack outs) to bet into us on a later street

imported_The Vibesman · #10 10-12-2005, 10:17 AM

MP1's go-and-stop has me a bit discombobulated, but I'm betting the river most of the time. MP1 may or may not call with AK, I probably won't get raised if he holds the overpair I think he might, as he is scared of the tens, but MP3 could have any number of worse hands he may call with. In the long run it's probably pretty close between betting and checking.