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#1
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19.5/12 over 90 hands.
Is it safe to put him on something like AK/AQ and 99-AA? Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls. Flop: (7.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero?? |
#2
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I got no advice for ya. I would have capped preflop, bet the flop, and made him make the decision you now have to make.
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#3
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I usually fold the flop. If it were a Q instead I'd calldown.
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#4
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He is betting a TON of hands here that you can still beat. Depending on his 3-betting range I'd cap preflop then lead the flop. It makes the hand much easier to play
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#5
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12 pfr means he raises a lot, but it doesn't say anything about how often he 3-bets. If his range is AK-AQ, 99-AA we're a dog. If we instead open raised in CO and he 3-betted on the Button I'd be more interested in Calling down.
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#6
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[ QUOTE ]
If his range is AK-AQ, 99-AA we're a dog [/ QUOTE ] But only a slight dog. With 7.5 SB in the pot I think we need to show this down, no? Board: 3d 3s Ks Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 44.4679 % 43.53% 01.06% { JdJh } Hand 2: 55.5321 % 54.62% 01.06% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ } |
#7
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I think we have to take account that AKo will be more likely than AQo since villain will more often 3-bet with AQK. I think the same goes for AA-QQ vs 99-TT.
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#8
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[ QUOTE ]
I think we have to take account that AKo will be more likely than AQo since villain will more often 3-bet with AQK. I think the same goes for AA-QQ vs 99-TT. [/ QUOTE ] It may be slightly more likely but there are also 12 combinations of AK versus 16 of AQ and only 3 combinations of KK. Still even if our equity is only 30%: 3 times we go to showdown and gain 12.5SB = +36.5SB 7 times we go to showdown and lose 5SB = -35SB If our equity is 40% then it's: 4 times we go to showdown and gain 12.5SB = +50SB 6 times we go to showdown and lose 5SB = -30SB This of course assumes we are able to get the same amount in the pot when ahead and behind. |
#9
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12 pfr, you have to cap preflop and bet the flop
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#10
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I'd 3-bet pf in villians position with 88/77, and sometimes 66, and my pfr% is less than his.
Since you only have 90 hands on the guy, lets just add 88 to the range you put him on. That means you're ahead of: TT-88, and every AQ combo besides AsQs. You're about 50% vs AsQs, so we'll count it as a half combo. Total ahead - 33.5 combos We're behind to: AK, AA-QQ, 1/2 AsQs. Total behind - 27.5 combos. You're actually a favorite to win this hand. Given the villians stats, I assume he is an aggressive player, and will continue to bet the turn with any of his likely holdings. Raising anywhere will just cost you money against the hands that have you crushed, and scare away the hands you beat badly. With that nice 3.5BB cushion, I think your most profitable play would be to check/call down. |
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