Stupid River Decision

[goofball]

HJ is a 30/13 who's postflop play basically reflects his PF numbers (somewhat too loose and agg but he doesn't seem dumb), BB is pure unknown.

HJ opens, I 3bet on the button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] BB caps, we both call.

Flop is 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB bets, HJ calls, I raise, HJ 3bets (somewhat alarming) I cap? they both call.

Turn is T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB checks, HJ bets, I raise, BB coldcalls, HJ calls.

River is a J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (bleh)

checked to me, I bet?

[AceHigh]

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checked to me, I bet?

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I think that's right. A Jack would certainly have bet, and you might get a call HJ with a flush(?) or BB with his likely overpair.

[Dominic]

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checked to me, I bet?

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I think that's right. A Jack would certainly have bet, and you might get a call HJ with a flush(?) or BB with his likely overpair.

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I don't think this is correct...most of the time, if you bet this river, you're only going to get called with hands that can beat you, so why bet? It's not for value.

[AceHigh]

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if you bet this river, you're only going to get called with hands that can beat you, so why bet?

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Cuz I think I have the best hand here most of the time. And the pot is so big we might get loose calls from flushes or worse hands.

Anybody who has a Jack bets the river, correct? So we are really only worried about hands that have a Ten right? What hand is HJ capping on the flop that has a Ten, only AcTx right? So we are really only worried about 1 hand, seems more likely he is a flush or straight (maybe with Kc).

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
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checked to me, I bet?

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I think that's right. A Jack would certainly have bet, and you might get a call HJ with a flush(?) or BB with his likely overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is correct...most of the time, if you bet this river, you're only going to get called with hands that can beat you, so why bet?

[/ QUOTE ]except for the overwhelming ercentage of the time that worse hands call. this is an easy bet, considering how the hand played out.

check.

[steveyz]

I see flushes or straights or overpairs as much more likely for your opponents than a J or T. Good bet.