Not sure what this bet indicates...

Malificent · #1 10-07-2005, 10:25 AM

Playing NL100 at Titan Poker. The villain in the hand joined the table about 10-12 hands ago.

Its open folded to me in MP3. I have J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I raise 3xBB to $3. Villain in the SB calls, and we see the flop of:

Pot ($7): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB checks, I bet $5 and after a small pause, I'm called. Turn comes:

Pot ($17): [9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Sb goes all-in for his remaining $23. I have about $90 left in my stack. What's my move here and what kind of hand does he have to make this bet?

#2 10-07-2005, 10:33 AM

He could have all kinds of hands. A set or flopped two pair(thinking your continuation bet has turn into top pair), aces up, flush draw and/or straight draw, K9 who hit the panic button, AK who thought his hand was too pretty to fold on the flop, who knows..

But I fold.

Godfather80 · #3 10-07-2005, 11:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Playing NL100 at Titan Poker. The villain in the hand joined the table about 10-12 hands ago.

Its open folded to me in MP3. I have J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I raise 3xBB to $3. Villain in the SB calls, and we see the flop of:

Pot ($7): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB checks, I bet $5 and after a small pause, I'm called. Turn comes:

Pot ($17): [9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Sb goes all-in for his remaining $23. I have about $90 left in my stack. What's my move here and what kind of hand does he have to make this bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is worth a look, just to see how often Villain has to be bluffing to make your call correct. You have to call $23 to win $40, so you need to win this hand 36.5% of the time. Given his call preflop and his call OOP on the flop, his hand range should consist of the following: A9s, A8s, A2s, K9s, QQ, Q9s, JTs, J9s, TT, T9s, 98s, 99, 88, 76s, 22.

But given the Ace on the turn and his subsequent push, a few of these hands are eliminated, leaving: A9s, A8s, A2s, 98s, 99, 88, 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 22.

I know this looks bleak, but I'm not really sure what hands other than these will try to make this move. Most probably, the Ace had to help him somehow, or he's not afraid of 1 pair hands.

Against this range, your hand is a serious dog. You have 2 outs against: A9s, A8s, A2s, 99, 88, 22. That gives you a 5% chance of winning against those 6 hands.
When villain has 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], he has 14 outs against you. That gives you a ~70% chance of winning.
When villain has 98, you have 8 outs. That gives you a 17.3% chance of winning.

Overall, against the hand range I've presented, you are about 14.6% Even if we assume villain is bluffing a decent amount of the time, you still can't call. In fact, you'd have to know that Villain was bluffing with air around 25% of the time, given this hand range, to make this call correct.

Fold.

Malificent · #4 10-07-2005, 01:07 PM

If you're villain and you have a monster hand, what reasons do you have for betting out instead of check raising?

Godfather80 · #5 10-07-2005, 02:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you're villain and you have a monster hand, what reasons do you have for betting out instead of check raising?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because any other size bet is pointless. You must be asking why not Villain not check-raise, and my answer is I don't know. He only has $23. Any bet other than all-in pot commits him anyway, so the all-in isn't that out of the ordinary.

As I said previously, if you think he has air more than 1/4 of the time, go ahead and call. Against a typical opponent, this is still a fold.

Malificent · #6 10-07-2005, 03:16 PM

I folded - wasn't trying to argue that it was a call. That answered my question. Thanks!

#7 10-07-2005, 03:58 PM

<font color="green"> </font>" If you're villain and you have a monster hand, what reasons do you have for betting out instead of check raising?"

<font color="purple"> </font> If you don't have an ace, you're likely to check behind him. If he thinks he's ahead, he doesn't want a free card to beat him. He also doesn't want to guess what to do when a scare card hits. Finally, if he's on a draw like JT, he wants to give you a chance to fold like you did.

I would fold too.

subzero · #8 10-07-2005, 03:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Playing NL100 at Titan Poker. The villain in the hand joined the table about 10-12 hands ago.

[/ QUOTE ]
What happened to villain in the previous hands? It looks like he only had $31 at the start of this hand. Did he buy-in short or did he loses some big hands? If he's steaming and trying to get unstuck, you can think about calling. Otherwise, I fold and wait for a better spot.

Malificent · #9 10-07-2005, 03:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Playing NL100 at Titan Poker. The villain in the hand joined the table about 10-12 hands ago.

[/ QUOTE ]
What happened to villain in the previous hands? It looks like he only had $31 at the start of this hand. Did he buy-in short or did he loses some big hands? If he's steaming and trying to get unstuck, you can think about calling. Otherwise, I fold and wait for a better spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

He bought in short. I think for $35 and lost a couple dollars without seeing a showdown. He certainly hadn't been involved in any big hands.