I think i might suck

[Sabrazack]

Okay, so started out playing poker and thought i was pretty darn good. I found this forum, started playing SNG:s and thought i did pretty well. Had a 20% Roi over my first 1000 tournaments. All was well. I then had a 7% Roi over my next 1000 tournaments. Felt pretty bad about it. Figured I might be somewhere inbetween the both results. Guess it turns out im not.

I have now played like 1500 more SNG:s with a blasting ROI of 3%. I really do feel like i am playing ALOT better than my results indicate. I also feel that i am the unluckiest guy in the world. But hey, i guess thats how everyone explains their losses. Wierd thing is, i read this forum, and i agree 90% of the times with what the respected posters think. And whenever i post a hand 90% of the time people tell me i did the right thing. But i just can't make any money.

So, where am i going with this post. Well, im totally completely lost. I have no idea how good i am and i would really like for someone to look over how i play and tell me if i'm really as bad as my results indicate. I already payed someone to do this, but he seems to be busy elsewhere right now [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]. So i would really appreciate it if someone who is pretty darn sure what they're doing could look over a hand history or two of mine.

Sabz out [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[pergesu]

fwiw your 3% ROI over the last 1500 is still positive...which means you're not only learning for free, you're getting paid to learn. May not be as much as you want, but it's a pretty sweet deal.

When did you start playing more tables, or start posting on the forums while playing, or start watching TV while playing? I'm just saying maybe you have started playing worse against actual opponents than before, even if your default play is much better (which explains your agreement in the forums).

[Sabrazack]

I am playing 8 tables now. But i really don't think that has an effect since when i played 4 tables i would surf on the internet or watch TV while playing. I have made 1 small misclick over the 2500 8tabling STT:s i have played. I am thinking of cutting back to 4 tables, but then it would take forever for me to get data with any kind of statistical validity.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I am playing 8 tables now. But i really don't think that has an effect

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, get serious. 8-tabling significantly affects your play. Everybody thinks they can do it, but few are actually helping their hourly rate by playing 8 instead of fewer.

[ QUOTE ]
I am thinking of cutting back to 4 tables, but then it would take forever for me to get data with any kind of statistical validity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you rather be relatively sure that your true ROI is 3%, or quite unsure that your 20% ROI is sustainable?

Irieguy

[ferb]

Any chance the games are getting tougher?

[Sabrazack]

The reason why i don't think 8 tabling is the cause of this huge drop is that i am very rerely stressed taking any decision. I think about every hand before i take action. However, i might have been fooling myself and am infact not paying required attention to each decision as you say.

I think im going to cut down to 6 or maybe continuously 4 tables for awhile and see how it goes. Thanks for the replies.

[Cactus Jack]

[ QUOTE ]
I am playing 8 tables now. But i really don't think that has an effect since when i played 4 tables i would surf on the internet or watch TV while playing. I have made 1 small misclick over the 2500 8tabling STT:s i have played. I am thinking of cutting back to 4 tables, but then it would take forever for me to get data with any kind of statistical validity.

[/ QUOTE ]

By replying, I'm risking you getting pissed off, but I think someone needs to be honest with you. The last sentence of the above quotation is a concern, as are the rest of your postings.

What are you trying to accomplish? You must be honest with yourself, and this need not be public, but it must be clear to you.

It appears to me that what is paramount to you is getting approval here. Who gives a damn about statistics if it affects your play? If you're good, you're good. Period. I'm impressed when someone posts their stats for 10k tourneys. I'm impressed someone has played that many. I'm not impressed that you are playing a lot so you can show how many you've played. It appears that the more you play, the worse you get. There is a correlation, believe me. Find it.

I can absolutely assure you, pergesu is correct. You couldn't play perfectly on a single table. No one can. You get bored? Figure out why. I like this game very much. It rarely bores me. If it bores me, I've played too much. I've found that when something bores me, I've stopped learning.

As always, Yoda rules. The answers you seek can only come from within yourself. No one here can look at what's going on in your head; no one can tell from your statistics and your hand histories what's going on in your mind. That's where you should start. If you know without a doubt your true self--what your motivations are and why you are doing what you're doing--then you should be able to find your answers. If you believe I'm full of it, I offer you a challenge. Play a month without reading or posting on 2+2 with a goal which does not involve playing 1000 tournaments. If you do not see a return to double digit ROI, then come back and start to work on why your play sucks.

Peer pressure, dude. No one is immune to that disease and few are aware they suffer it. That's what I think is your problem.

I should not post this, as no doubt it will piss you off, and may cause me further regret, but you asked for help and this is how I think I can help you. I hope you take it in this spirit. At least I didn't agree that you suck. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Best wishes,

CJ

[beeyjay]

it happens, everybody on this board orgasms over 1000 sngs as the mark to tell you your exact roi but i think as someone posted last week, results over 1000 sngs differ soo much. 1000 is usually dropped in the context of "get over your 100 sng results until you have 1000 you dont have any idea" but its really easy to have a few 30 or so buyin drops in 1000 and all of a sudden your roi is screwed. I know what you're going through as I have been in a horrible run of cards for weeks now (hundreds of games). Its been the way Irieguy described when he was talking about you can see the JJ coming when you have AA vs AJ. My roi is still positive but not near where it has been or where it should be if i didnt keep losing to ridiculous hands. Concentrate on things that you can control. Im sure your game isnt perfect. Concentrate on why youre getting knocked out. its easy to think you are running into AA and AK on steals and getting drawn out on a lot and say i cant do anything else. But this isnt why you are losing everytime. Find small things and make changes. Dont get into a losing mentality. You're still winning and you will win at a higher rate in the future its a given. Neg. Variance is so disheartening sometimes especially when it just keeps going and going.

As an example look at danieal negreanu or somebody else real successful in the spotlight. dude couldnt lose last year. If he can have a good run that long, somebody can have a bad run that long. I know this examply doesn't add up exactly but it kinda fits with those posts Irie was posting for a while about how much randomness figures into our results and we refuse to recognize it. I think he was emphasizing positive randomness but it definitly goes the other way too.

[GtrHtr]

You might suck or you might not.

Post your ITM% and top 4 finish % for each group you listed your ROI for.

oh, and you don't suck, you're doing better than 80% of the player pool.