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#1
10-02-2005, 08:44 PM
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What it Do?
5/10NL, PP full ring. Villain is solid TAG (20/6/4) in MP, and believe he views me as same.
I (cover) open T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG to $40, Villain (~$1500) calls in MP1 and MP2 calls, rest fold. Flop (~$130) : 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I lead for $110 and Villain makes it $425. Call or push? I often will push this type of hand/draw, and I believe my FE is low, as Villain knows this. I put Villain on a set or QQ/JJ, possibly 2 pr/straight or pair + big draw (in that respective order). 
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#2
10-02-2005, 08:52 PM
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Re: What it Do?
folding is an option too you know.
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#3
10-02-2005, 09:23 PM
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Re: What it Do?
[ QUOTE ]
folding is an option too you know. [/ QUOTE ] Okay, call, push or fold?
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#4
10-02-2005, 09:26 PM
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Re: What it Do?
I think if a set is the most likely and your FE is low then you should fold. If you think he's capable of folding an overpair then I like a push, but from what you said seems like that's not the case.
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#7
10-03-2005, 01:10 AM
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Re: What it Do?
I don't like open-raising UTG with these mediumish PP. In fact, I've made a habit of open-limping UTG or UTG+1 just about every time(full-ring, of course) with the option of limp-reraising.
As you played it, the pot is bloated and tight aggressive is likely to have you crushed with a set. That's what his stats indicate to me. Either that or A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. He might play a suited connector, but would probably gamble closer to the button rather than MP1. Part of the reason you push a draw is because: (a) It's so strong you have too much equity (i.e. a straight flush draw) -or- (b) You believe you can get your opponent to fold. Since neither (a) nor (b) (according to you) is true, you should just fold this. Garland
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#8
10-03-2005, 01:32 AM
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Re: What it Do?
[ QUOTE ]
As you played it, the pot is bloated and tight aggressive is likely to have you crushed with a set. That's what his stats indicate to me. Either that or AK. He might play a suited connector, but would probably gamble closer to the button rather than MP1. [/ QUOTE ] Well, I think it is very possible for him to have a SC (56s, 67s, 78s, 89s, JTs, T9s (which is less likely since I have 2 tens and there's a 9 on board)). He is tight, but not rock tight (12-13% VPIP) - those are the ones in my experience to only call a raise with a PP or AK/AKs.
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#9
10-03-2005, 02:17 AM
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Re: What it Do?
This really looks like the villian has a set. The call of your pf raise makes sense with 77, 88, or 99. The turn raise is about the right amount for an opponent to make with a set scared of a very draw heavy board. An even larger raise is possible for some opponents. This opens up the possibility that he could have the nuts and not want to totally chase you away (but make you pay in case you have a straight or flush draw).
I didn't do the math but, judging by your tight villian's probable hand range, I think this is a clear fold.
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#10
10-03-2005, 01:24 AM
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Re: What it Do?
Well, it looks like everyone is saying fold, which actually kinda surprised me (as it was my least likely option), isn't that somewhat nitty?. At the time, I figured to have around 40% equity, and after running some #s, it appears to be around 35%. Since I also had a club, I figured I could also semi-bluff a flush if a club came, so I called.
The turn (~$980) was a complete brick, and I checked and Villain pushed for a little over $1k and I folded. So, does everyone agree with the folding to the flop raise?
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