Entertainment Betting: Movies Opening This Weekend

llabb · #1 09-30-2005, 10:02 AM

Didn't know where to post this, so I put it in this forum, since the wagers are placed in the sportsbooks.

I occasionally examine entertainment wagers and other off the wall bets, looking for value. Movies are a good way to do this, as the lines are often quite soft. One for the weekend, on World Sports Exchange, wsex.com (yeah, interesting choice of acronyms).

Some of you may have heard of Joss Whedon's (Buffy creator) latest sci-fi project, which was a brief TV series called Firefly, was cancelled, and has now become the movie opening today, called Serenity. As such, it has a built-in fan base highly interested in seeing this movie and has been receiving rave reviews, plus there is strong marketing to teenage and young 20-something males. This is the OOT demographic - does anyone there know if this will be a popular movie? Anyway, the line for this movie is way off, and presents a good wager, even though smart money has already piled on it. Here is the line, with the supporting data following.

Serenity Over $11 million -170 (was -150 or even lower, but still decent even at -170)
Expert Predictions: Box Office Guru $16 mil, Box Office Report $17 mil, Box Office Prophets $13 mil, HSX $15.9 mil, favorable critic reviews and Rotten Tomato ratings at 80%, users at 92%.

For those of you who love Jessica Alba (again, most of OOT), some of you may think her new movie Into the Blue may do well. It might, but it's gotten rocked in critic's reviews, and looks like a bomb. Could the date movie crowd and males lusting after Alba support the movie? Perhaps. But this line is unfavorable, and I would not wager on it.

Into the Blue Over 10 million -150
Expert Predictions: Box Office Guru $11 mil, Box Office Report $13 mil, Box Office Prophets $10 mil, HSX $12.2 mil, unfavorable reviews and Rotten Tomato ratings at 19%.

Webster · #2 09-30-2005, 11:31 AM

FireFly/Serinity is going to do better then people think. They have been screeningthe movie for months and getting good word of mouth. Unlike some movies that get NO screenings because they know they suck. These guys kow they have a winner.

It has a cult following not unlike Star Trek had - just a little weaker.

#3 09-30-2005, 12:37 PM

They both look like they could go over. I havent seen a lot of ads for Serenity, although it looks like a good movie and has gotten good reviews.

I cant imagine Into the blue not making <11 million. The teen/early twenties crowd will be all over it.

Webster · #4 09-30-2005, 04:01 PM

Read some post on a movie forum and their guess Serenity will be in the 30 mil range. Most are saying it was WAY better then expected and even the non-firefly people said it was a surprise.

[ QUOTE ]
Somehow, with "Serenity," Whedon has managed to scotch tape and superglue "Star Wars" with "Dawn of the Dead.

[/ QUOTE ]

KingCon · #5 09-30-2005, 06:17 PM

Serenity will go over 20 Million easily, all of the FIREFLY fanboys will make sure it has a huge opening weekend to assure a sequel or a return to TV.

22-25 Million easily

jedinite · #6 09-30-2005, 06:31 PM

I'd also consider the Serenity line to be ridiculously soft. So soft that i'm making my first ever play on Entertainment... great find.

llabb · #7 10-01-2005, 08:59 PM

Good news, but barely. Serenity opened on Friday for $3.9 million for the day.

This puts it on track to earn around $11.5-13.5 mil in my opinion. I expected it to earn more, and it still could if Sat has a greater ratio over Friday than is customary, but either way it should beat the line, although it will be closer than expected.

Weekend estimates will be released Sunday afternoon.

whipsaw · #8 10-02-2005, 01:32 PM

Not looking good after the dip on Saturday... what gives?

Webster · #9 10-02-2005, 01:43 PM

It'll be a word of mouth thing - I'm pretty sure this is a momentum play which has a longer life then a blockbuster opening.

llabb · #10 10-02-2005, 01:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Not looking good after the dip on Saturday... what gives?

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF?! What in the world happened on Saturday - almost no movie EVER makes less on Sat than on Fri night! Look at the chart - every single movie made more on Sat than Fri, except Serenity. You need the bigger Sat to counter the lower Sun expected figures.

Projections at $10.1 mil, this is horrible, as actuals rarely differ from Sunday estimates by 10%+.

I cannot remember any movie I have ever wagered on (or almost any even seen) making less on Sat than on Fri. I guess this movie truly is only fanboys who want to see it on opening night and opening night only, and then perhaps it will spread later via word of mouth later.

I do not think these are official studio estimates yet, so there is still a small amount of hope for changes in the official projections and later in the actuals, but that is a long shot. This sucks.