The Theory of Top Set

[JFB37]

This situation came up last night and, while weighing my options, I realized that I was working almost entirely off of experience and my reads on the other players in the pot. It dawned on me that I wasn't aware of any reasonable theoretical way to approach this type of problem. I'm wondering if there is some approach I am overlooking or is this just poker.

The 3/3 PL HE game at the Vic: It is tournament week so it is busy but it is a pretty typical Vic table, a mix of solid regulers, donators and nut peddlers.

Three limpers to the sb who raises the pot. I have QQ in the bb and decide to smooth call. (Debate this if you like but it is not the point of the post.) All three limpers call for a pot of 90. I have about 650 behind and stack sizes of the others in the pot range from 450 to 1200.

Flop is a dream: Q 7 3 rainbow.

SB checks to me. I have the absolute best possible hand at the moment and there are only seven possible hands that can catch a card on the turn to beat me. Clearly, I'm a big favorite. So, what's the plan:

(1) Bet out and hope for a caller or, in a perfect world, a raise?

(2) Check planning to c/r?

(3) Check planning to call with the idea of playing a big pot on a later street?

I have played enough to have had an opinion about which option was best but it was based almost entirely on what I have seen happen in other hands in the past.

I'm posting this here rather than in MHS because I am interested in any thoughts on how to analyze this hand from a theoretical perspective.

Thanks in advance.

edit: fixed confusing typo noted in first reply.

[ QUOTE ]

...I have QQ in the bb ...

...BB checks to me.


[/ QUOTE ]

Am I mis-reading or just don't understand? You're in the BB and then BB checks to you?

Moving on. I bet the pot. That's without any knowledge of the table, you, how they play, how they know/think you play, etc.

Theory is fine, and you can debate all the options 'til pigs start to fly, but with just what you've posted, I'd bet it and let the other players take it from there.

[JFB37]

Sorry. The SB checked. I fixed the intial post.

Reads Reads Reads

There is no "correct" way to play here - it all depends on your reads of the players at your table.

Absent any reads, my approach here is to check - depending on what happens next, I may call a bet or check-raise.

My goal here is to build the pot - so if I check and UTG bets and it is called around to me, you best believe I will raise at that point. If, on the other hand, it is checked around to the button who bets, then I would probably just call.

[elmitchbo]

i think simply betting the pot is too blunt. if you bet at all a smaller probe size bet would be better.

i certainly agree that checking isn't a bad idea. i think the theory has to be a little more than just building the pot. with a hand that strong you want to start building the pot now, but also try to insure that you will be able to continue to build the pot on later streets.

actually, in a situation like this you might want to give a free card in hopes that somebody catches up a little. nothing would better than a guy holding A7 catching another 7 or an Ace.

[Tilt]

First, try and do whatever is consistent what you would do with a lesser hand. If you are a very aggressive player, don't check now. Conversely, if you haven't bet the pot with anything but TPTK or better until now don't do it now. Whatever you do should seek to invite your opponents agression.

If making a stab at the pot with a small bet is a reasonable play for you, do that here. SB's check may indicate a nice c/r coming from a big pair or AQ. And your position is actually great for such a play, as all the other limpers have to act before they see whether the SB is going to c/r.

I read this after my post, and it dawned on me that an even bigger range of second best hands is possible, especially from the SB. KQ, QJ, QT all seem like reasonable plays given the preflop action. Yes, I think at this point I would make a probe bet if, like was said, that is consistent with my style of play.

[ QUOTE ]
First, try and do whatever is consistent what you would do with a lesser hand. If you are a very aggressive player, don't check now. Conversely, if you haven't bet the pot with anything but TPTK or better until now don't do it now. Whatever you do should seek to invite your opponents agression.

If making a stab at the pot with a small bet is a reasonable play for you, do that here. SB's check may indicate a nice c/r coming from a big pair or AQ. And your position is actually great for such a play, as all the other limpers have to act before they see whether the SB is going to c/r.

[/ QUOTE ]


This is sound good advice, and would normally be the correct approach for the flop, but here is a unique situation with the pf raise by the sb.
It should be noted that even if the sb had not raised pf - with this flop a "normal" raise of about 1/2 pot would probably only come from sb/bb with weak Qx - and even that is debatable - as a check raise approach seems a little better. Hardly anything can bet this flop here. Late position shooter would/should shy away from this spot and wait for the turn. A hand better than this would not be looking to bet people out of the pot -yet.

What is really interesting is that the pre-flop raise by SB pretty much sets this flop up as "booby trapped".

Almost any decent holding by SB could likely be setting up to check/raise here - and the OTHER players behind you should know this. So if you bet into the flop from the BB it should be obvious that you are lookin to pick a fight! I think the other players would prudently fold, and you will have killed your chances for a big pot - unless the sb decides to dance with you. But even if he does - he now will know you have a hand as well. Now the only hands that the SB could have AND be willing to lose alot of money with are AA,KK,AQs. The other problem is that you have REALLY cost youself if he now folds his AK,TT,or JJ.

So betting the flop here is like shooting an arrow and expecting the target to run into it.

KEY QUESTION: WHAT WILL THE SB MOST LIKELY DO ON THE TURN IF THE BOARD GIVES A DRAW MAKER?, OR AN A/K THAT HITS HIS HAND?

If he leads out and bets (which is likely) you can even make a small reraise here without giving away the true strength of your hand. That play would be hard to read, and could induce the SB as well as the players yet to act to make some serious errors.

You must wait for the SB to move first.

But if he just checks again on the turn, put him on AK or some other soured hand, and play your QQQ accordingly.

The players behind you will do the same, and will not now put you on such a strong hand. If a drawing card came on the turn and the sb checked it - I would make a really devious bet of only about 1/3 pot here to represent a possible draw to get some action going.

So the critical decision for this hand will usually come on the Turn, and NOT on the Flop as most players would assume.

[JFB37]

Very interesting post, Zizzling. The results bear out your analysis. I bet 75 and everyone folded. In retrospect, this was too strong as it was unlikely anyone behind me had anything they were going to call with.


One slightly interesting gossipy point. One of the people in the pot was (I assume) Robert Varkonyi's wife. He was sitting behind her railbirding her play.

I would go ahead and make a probe bet. Something that keeps someone with A7 or even AQ in the pot. A check-raise might build the pot, but it's probably going to kill any future action you can induce with pot odds. A check-call, might also build the pot, but too often I've done that only to have the opponent catch up and some how pass me because now, on the turn, he IS getting the right odds to call.

A bet will push out the weaker draws like a backdoor flush or straight while keeping in anyone playing MPTK, which has to be the best situation.